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BAKU: Karabakh Should Stay Under Azerbaijan's Jurisdiction: Ariel Co

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  • BAKU: Karabakh Should Stay Under Azerbaijan's Jurisdiction: Ariel Co

    KARABAKH SHOULD STAY UNDER AZERBAIJAN'S JURISDICTION: ARIEL COHEN
    Leyla Tagiyeva

    news.az
    Dec 1 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Ariel Cohen News.Az interviews Ariel Cohen, a political scientist
    and chief of department on Russia, Eurasia and international energy
    security of The Heritage Foundation (USA).

    We have recently witnessed intensification of meetings to settle
    the Karabakh conflict. Can we expect progress in the settlement,
    in this regard?

    I hope both parties realize the need to find a mutually profitable
    solution, a decision that would meet the interests of both sides and
    also comply with bases of international law. Such a decision would
    prove that the changes in existing state borders that emerge after
    the collapse of a past state by administrative borders of this state,
    can take place only on agreement of both sides. Therefore, Karabakh
    should stay under Azerbaijan's jurisdiction. As far as I understand,
    Azerbaijan is ready to make far-reaching concessions. And if both
    sides come to such an agreement, the benefits of both sides are
    obvious in the sense of developing ties, transport arteries and
    improving investment climate.

    Can the developing Russian-Turkish interaction promote the conflict
    settlement?

    This is another important moment. Today Turkey and Russia are creating
    the so-called "condominium" in the South Caucasus. This joint activity
    is likely to reduce sovereignty of all three South Caucasus states,
    including Armenia.

    The interference of the regional superpowers in the region will reduce
    freedom of maneuvering for Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. And the
    process of pressure and separation that is going on between Russia and
    Georgia and that really narrows the Georgian territory and reduces
    Georgian sovereignty is just the first sign of what may happen in
    the South Caucasus if the states do not search ways to cooperate and
    overcome the historical hindrances accumulated since 1988.

    President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev recently speaking before a
    group of IDPs said in case the conflict is further protracted Baku
    may consider possible return of occupied lands and is, therefore,
    raising its military potential. Is the possibility of a new war for
    Nagorno Karabakh high?

    I do not consider the military actions today as a desirable
    development. But in this situation it depends on who initiates
    hostilities. I do not think Azerbaijan will initiate war though the
    return of lands may be one of the recognized causes of that. There
    is a difference between reconciliation and peace in international law.

    There is no peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia but I do
    not think someone in Azerbaijan wants war. The intentions of Armenians
    now depend on their leadership and their elite and their ability to
    overcome the desire to hold Karabakh further instead of finding a
    mutually profitable solution.

    Also much will depend on whether Turkey fulfills its role of a
    fraternal state towards Azerbaijan or it will forget its fraternal
    duty and settle its own issues ignoring the principles of Turkic
    solidarity and fraternal relations with Azerbaijan.

    How would you comment on the recent events connected with the signing
    of the Azerbaijani-Russian agreement on gas supplies to Russia and the
    recent Azerbaijani-Turkish differences about the price of Azerbaijani
    gas exported via Turkey? Won't they reduce possibility of implementing
    Nabucco gas project?

    It depends on which strategic pipeline will be constructed. Russia
    and its partners have serious achievements in building geopolitical
    foundations for the South Stream. In fact, there is an agreement on
    the whole line. I think Turkey is not ready to support only Nabucco.

    The relations between Erdogan and Putin are improving which means
    improvement of relations between Turkey and Russia.

    Meanwhile, the West has a chance, if now the European Union and the
    United States try pushing Nabucco. Yet the time is limited. This will
    be either a pipeline based on Azerbaijani and perhaps Turkmen gas or
    we will have problems because Turkey will also try to promote Iranian
    gas which is undesirable at the current stage and in this conjuncture.

    If Turkey allows Russia to lay the pipeline via its territorial
    water, it will thus play into Russia's hands... Perhaps, it has
    some interests.

    Perhaps, some of its politicians have personal ambitions.

    Anyway, it would be good for the United States, Europe and Turkey to
    join efforts to establish Nabucco.
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