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TURKEY-ARMENIA PROTOCOLS NOT TO BE RATIFIED ANY TIME SOON: CONFLICTOLOGIST
R. Mehdiyev
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/ 57878.html
Dec 2 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijan-based Peace and Conflict Resolution
Center Director Elkhan Mehdiyev.
Day.Az: Do you believe the Turkey-Armenia protocols will finally be
ratified? Which of the sides is likely to ratify them first?
Elkhan Mehdiyev: I think the Turkey-Armenia protocols will not to
be ratified any time soon because we know the mood in the Turkish
society and parliament and even in government. Prime Minister Erdogan
has repeatedly stated that ratification of protocols is impossible
without liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories.
So I do not think even his upcoming meeting with U.S. President Barack
Obama will help move this issue because this issue has already become
agenda of Turkey's domestic policy. So, now it is not an Azerbaijani
issue any longer, but a purely Turkish. Of course, if Armenia and
Azerbaijan sign an agreement on troop withdrawal and liberation of
Azerbaijan's territories, the ratification will certainly be possible.
As for Armenia, it can either expect Turkey to ratify the protocols
or it may itself ratify the protocols first to play with the world
public opinion to show that it has already signed the document and
it respects its commitments made in Zurich. They can use it as a
propaganda. Both options is possible.
Q: Do you think Russia is interested in opening of Armenia-Turkey
border? Does Russia fear that Turkey may step up its influence in
the Caucasus?
A: I think Russia is interested in resumption of diplomatic ties
between the two countries. Because it was stated on top level that
Russia is interested in this process. Once such statements have been
made, we can not say that Russia is against this process. In addition,
Russian foreign minister attended the Zurich meeting.
In meantime, Russia has its interests in this matter. It is connected
with the Georgian events above all. Open borders would allow Russia to
have good trade relations with Turkey and enjoying even more influence
on Armenia. Russia understands that the Turkish-Armenian border will
be opened sooner or later. If this process takes place with Russia's
support, it will win and increase its influence. One should bear in
mind that Russia has many economic projects in Armenia and it wants
to implement them through Turkey.
Q: Is there still a need to change format of the OSCE Minks Group?
Maybe it is high time for the European Union to deal with the issue?
A: Of course, the Azerbaijani side does not trust the Minsk Group, but
it really has no other choice. Azerbaijan cannot deny the OSCE Minsk
service. On the other hand, the EU will not be able to independently
engage in the settlement process because of Russia. Azerbaijan wants
Turkey to be one of the co-chairs. But the three powers had already
monopolized the Nagorno-Karabakh process and do not allow anyone to
learn even more details of ongoing negotiations, even countries that
are ordinary members of the Minsk Group.
So, if Azerbaijan refuses Minsk Group mediation services, then who
will take over mediation? European Union is very diversified group
of states some of who have polar views on just outcome of the conflict.
Therefore, it would be better if the format of the mediators was
composed of not regional countries. But it's to late to do it now.
R. Mehdiyev
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/ 57878.html
Dec 2 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijan-based Peace and Conflict Resolution
Center Director Elkhan Mehdiyev.
Day.Az: Do you believe the Turkey-Armenia protocols will finally be
ratified? Which of the sides is likely to ratify them first?
Elkhan Mehdiyev: I think the Turkey-Armenia protocols will not to
be ratified any time soon because we know the mood in the Turkish
society and parliament and even in government. Prime Minister Erdogan
has repeatedly stated that ratification of protocols is impossible
without liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories.
So I do not think even his upcoming meeting with U.S. President Barack
Obama will help move this issue because this issue has already become
agenda of Turkey's domestic policy. So, now it is not an Azerbaijani
issue any longer, but a purely Turkish. Of course, if Armenia and
Azerbaijan sign an agreement on troop withdrawal and liberation of
Azerbaijan's territories, the ratification will certainly be possible.
As for Armenia, it can either expect Turkey to ratify the protocols
or it may itself ratify the protocols first to play with the world
public opinion to show that it has already signed the document and
it respects its commitments made in Zurich. They can use it as a
propaganda. Both options is possible.
Q: Do you think Russia is interested in opening of Armenia-Turkey
border? Does Russia fear that Turkey may step up its influence in
the Caucasus?
A: I think Russia is interested in resumption of diplomatic ties
between the two countries. Because it was stated on top level that
Russia is interested in this process. Once such statements have been
made, we can not say that Russia is against this process. In addition,
Russian foreign minister attended the Zurich meeting.
In meantime, Russia has its interests in this matter. It is connected
with the Georgian events above all. Open borders would allow Russia to
have good trade relations with Turkey and enjoying even more influence
on Armenia. Russia understands that the Turkish-Armenian border will
be opened sooner or later. If this process takes place with Russia's
support, it will win and increase its influence. One should bear in
mind that Russia has many economic projects in Armenia and it wants
to implement them through Turkey.
Q: Is there still a need to change format of the OSCE Minks Group?
Maybe it is high time for the European Union to deal with the issue?
A: Of course, the Azerbaijani side does not trust the Minsk Group, but
it really has no other choice. Azerbaijan cannot deny the OSCE Minsk
service. On the other hand, the EU will not be able to independently
engage in the settlement process because of Russia. Azerbaijan wants
Turkey to be one of the co-chairs. But the three powers had already
monopolized the Nagorno-Karabakh process and do not allow anyone to
learn even more details of ongoing negotiations, even countries that
are ordinary members of the Minsk Group.
So, if Azerbaijan refuses Minsk Group mediation services, then who
will take over mediation? European Union is very diversified group
of states some of who have polar views on just outcome of the conflict.
Therefore, it would be better if the format of the mediators was
composed of not regional countries. But it's to late to do it now.