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BAKU: Moscow respects Azerbaijan's multi-directional policy -analyst

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  • BAKU: Moscow respects Azerbaijan's multi-directional policy -analyst

    news.az, Azerbaijan
    Dec 5 2009


    Moscow respects Azerbaijan's multi-directional policy - analyst
    Sat 05 December 2009 | 06:52 GMT Text size:


    Dmitry Polikanov News.Az interviews Dmitry Polikanov, vice president
    of the Russian Centre for Political Studies.

    Could you comment on reports that the Canadian delegation has blocked
    the adoption of all documents at the upcoming NATO-Russia Council
    meeting?

    Unfortunately, not everyone is completely free of the stereotypes of
    the `cold war'. There are some countries within NATO that do not want
    rapprochement between Russia and the alliance for clear, pragmatic
    reasons. Any confrontation always requires additional budgets, an
    opportunity to derive political dividends, mobilize public opinion.
    Nevertheless, Russia and NATO are cooperating in areas and on issues
    where they cannot do without each other. These include the drug threat
    posed by Afghanistan, the security of nuclear arsenals and nuclear
    weapons nonproliferation. The optimistic and constructive tone taken
    by the alliance's new secretary general gives hope. I believe that
    during the negotiations the sides will stop putting pressure on each
    other and start to coordinate the action plan for 2010.

    Might post-Soviet countries join NATO in the near future?

    I think it highly unlikely, because neither the alliance nor the
    post-Soviet countries are ready for this. It does not mean that the
    process of their transformation and adaptation to NATO standards will
    not continue, though. NATO remains the main tool of military security
    in Europe. Even Russia's initiative for a new agreement on European
    security would be just a political solution creating the legal
    skeleton of security architecture while the muscles would be NATO's.
    Therefore, in the long-term some CIS states may prefer membership of
    the alliance to neutrality and Russia should be ready for this. It
    should take this into consideration in its policy and define limits,
    create bilateral cooperation mechanisms and interaction through the
    Russia-NATO Council, adjust the military doctrine - and not
    necessarily by making it tougher - and adjust the parameters of the
    armed forces to take into account the new nature of threats and
    configuration of borders.

    Do you think confrontation (political or other) between the Collective
    Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and NATO is possible in the
    Caucasus, considering the similarity of their interests, or is
    cooperation between them more likely?

    Unfortunately, NATO is not ready for cooperation with the CSTO. The
    CSTO has repeatedly proposed cooperation but the alliance does not
    shake hands with it. On the one hand, this is logical as the bloc
    approach should stay in the past. On the other hand, the CSTO,
    especially with the formation of the collective forces, is becoming a
    real security structure in the post-Soviet area that cannot be
    ignored. Nevertheless, confrontation between the CSTO and NATO in the
    South Caucasus is highly unlikely. In the end, Armenia is the only
    country that could have such a "split conscience". But Yerevan manages
    to combine a high level of trust with Russia and simultaneously to
    develop normal and mutually profitable cooperation with NATO. Thus, if
    it comes to confrontation, it will occur along the traditional
    Russia-NATO line. Nevertheless, I want to believe that the countries
    have drawn conclusions from the August war in Georgia and will not
    allow third countries to interfere and spoil relations between Moscow
    and the alliance.

    Azerbaijan is actively cooperating with NATO within the framework of
    the Partnership for Peace programme and the individual partnership
    action plan. At the same time Baku has recently mentioned its
    intention to raise this cooperation to the partnership level. Does
    this create concern in Moscow?

    Moscow respects the multi-directional and balanced policy of
    Azerbaijan. Intensive cooperation is perceived quite calmly if it does
    not pose a direct threat to Russia, especially because
    Russian-Azerbaijani relations and diplomatic cooperation and so on are
    developing no less effectively.

    The West (the USA and EU) and Turkey have recently shown active
    interest in the stabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus,
    making different initiatives on this. Doesn't this make Russia
    jealous, as it has historically been the leading force in the country?

    There is no sense of jealousy. Russia supported the normalization of
    Armenian-Turkish relations and spared no efforts to see this process
    through. Moreover, Moscow is greatly interested in stabilization of
    the situation in the South Caucasus, in reliable and predictable
    partners there, in the peaceful resolution of frozen conflicts. This
    was behind the attempts to restore dialogue between Armenia and
    Azerbaijan on Karabakh. Moreover, Russia is closely cooperating with
    Turkey on the settlement of security issues in the region and it
    welcomed the Turkish initiative on the creation of the negotiation
    platform on security. Certainly, some experts think that the increased
    involvement of the United States will distance these countries from
    Russia and so on. But this view does not predominate. It is rather an
    attempt to view everything within the framework of the old
    geopolitical approaches, the view on "pipeline" policy (either oil or
    gas). Multilateral approaches, including with the participation of the
    EU, may be more effective, especially as they will alleviate concerns
    in some South Caucasus countries about the political commitment of
    Russia. Long-lasting conflicts in the region can be settled only
    through binding interests and in this case, as they say, "two heads
    are better than one".

    Leyla Tagiyeva
    News.Az

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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