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ARMENIA SHOULD ACCUSE TURKEY FOR PROTRACTING RATIFICATION OF PROTOCOLS
David Stepanyan
ArmInfo
2009-12-19 16:08:00
ArmInfo's exclusive interview with Kiro Manoyan, ARFD Bureau's Hay
Dat and Political Affairs Office
Mr. Manoyan, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan has recently
declared that in case Azerbaijnan resumes military actions against
Armenia, the CSTO ought to render us military assistance. Is it
possible?
Azerbaijan has repeatedly declared that it is not going to attack
Armenia and it will fight only with Nagorny Karabakh which Baku
believes part of Azerbaijan. Therefore I am not sure that the CSTO
member-states will response to Armenia's call for assistance in case
Azerbaijani aggression against the NKR repeats. Armenia's commitments
to guard the NKR has not been recognized by the world community yet.
What about the bilateral strategic cooperation of Armenia and Russia?
In compliance with the bilateral agreements between Armenia and Russia,
Russian frontier guards are obliged to guard only the external borders
of Armenia to Turkey and Iran. For this reason, to expect deployment
of Russian servicemen at the border to Azerbaijan is impossible even
in case of the new aggression against our country. But it does not
at all mean that in case of necessity Armenia will not be able to
purchase weapon and armament from Russia as well as other countries.
What conditions does Aliyev need to realize his threats towards
Armenia?
Baku will start new aggression against Armenia and the NKR as soon
as it feels that the possibility of its victory reaches 51%. But in
today's real conditions, when there are the real borders and the line
of contact, even this 51% of possibility of victory does not give
Baku an opportunity of fulfilling its aggressive plans. As soon as
Azerbaijan feels it can gain a victory, it will attack.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan made two contradictory statements on the prospects of the
Armenian-Turkish process. Which one was closer to the golden mean?
There is no golden mean here. The stances of our countries have
a contradiction that originated already on the day of signing the
Protocols, i.e. the 3.5-hour delay of the signing in Zurich. Yet
before signing the Protocols, we had repeatedly stated that it is
impossible to ignore the statements by the Turkish prime minister,
president and foreign minister saying that ratification of the
Protocols is impossible without settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
Nevertheless, the statements by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
and the Turkish party made in the course of the Armenian-Turkish
negotiations after the Protocols were signed are also evidence of
the 180-degree contradictions between the positions of Armenia and
Turkey though the two documents do not contain these contradictions.
All this is another reason for Armenia to declare its refusal from
ratification of the Protocols in such conditions. Further protracting
the process, Armenia acts in favor of Turkey which is extremely
interested in it. Turkey is not interested in establishing diplomatic
relations with Armenia without settlement of the Karabakh conflict,
but it needs the negotiation process to prove its intentions to the
world community.
In addition, ratification of the Protocols is not expedient for
Turkey at least now, not only because of Azerbaijan, but because
of the latest processes connected with the Kurds. At the same time,
Turkey was interested in the accelerated implementation of agreements
with Armenia at least before March 2009 as this was required by
the geopolitical situation in region. Now that the conditions have
changed, Turkey has simply turned the negotiation process into the
lever of pressure on Armenia in the Karabakh peace process. I don't
think that it will manage to exercise this pressure, but the fact that
it is actively using this lever is quite clear. Moreover, today the
Armenian-Turkish relations have faded into insignificance for Ankara,
not least because of the latest conflict in Turkey connected with
the closure of a pro-Kurdish party.
Does it mean that the Protocols will not be ratified in the nearest
future?
I don't think that ratification of the Protocols within a reasonable
period of time, which for some unknown reason Armenia considers
February-March 2010, will be possible as Turkey will be simply unable
to do this. Therefore, without waiting for Ankara's response, Armenia
should state that the negotiations failed in connection with the
Turkey's preconditions on the Karabakh problem, however, if Turkey
gives up its preconditions, Yerevan is ready to continue them.
The Foreign Relations Committee of the Turkish Parliament was to pass
a resolution on the Armenian-Turkish Protocols at least on 7 December
in compliance with its Regulations but didn't. Why?
This is another reason for Armenia to say that Turkey is not ready to
ratify the protocols. 45 days have already passed since the Foreign
Ministry of Turkey submitted the protocols to the Turkish Parliament
but no decision has been adopted yet. There were reports that the
Committee might be pressured by the United States into approving
the protocols. But nothing of the kind has happened. Even more, the
Chairman of the Committee has assured Azeri media that, until Azeri
President Ilham Aliyev pointed out progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process, the committee would not examine the protocols. All
this gives us the right to say that the Armenian-Turkish process has
failed because of Turkey, which changed the rules of the game. The
later we state this, the harder it will be for us to do it. I do
not think that Ankara's real stance much differs from the one it
declares. This is not a game as Armenia believes it to be.
This stance is not set forth in the Protocols...
Yes, the Armenian-Turkish protocols do not mention Turkey's position,
which is based on preconditions against Armenia, nor do they specify
ratification deadlines. Both the Armenian and Turkish parliaments
are controlled by the ruling parties. In this light, the statement by
Erdogan, who controls over half of the Turkish MPs, that the Turkish
Parliament is democratic and independent is simply ridiculous.
Is there any progress in advancing pro-Armenian resolutions in the
US Congress?
H.Res. 252 is being considered by the House of Representatives, another
our resolution H.Res.316 - by the Senate. The number of supporters is
growing but now as quickly as we would like it to. The key reason is
that today the situation in the US political elite is much different
from the one present under the rule of the Republicans.
Today when the Democratic Party constitutes the majority in the
Congress and holds the White House, the work of the Congress and the
White House has become better coordinated and they do not have big
contradictions any longer. But this does not mean that they don't have
contradictions at all. So, we have to do much to overcome all obstacles
to the adoption of Armenian Genocide resolution by the Congress.
I think favorable conditions will be created for adoption of the
two resolutions by US Congress in 2010: the 95th anniversary of the
Armenian Genocide, election in Congress, and all this will have its
impact on the situation with pro-Armenian resolutions. However, the
main factor that may have affected the position of the Congress is
Armenia's official position on this issue. Neither Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan nor the Armenian foreign minister have told the Congress
so far that the adoption of the resolutions will by no means hinder
the Armenian-Turkish relations, whereas the need in this matured long
ago. Turkey has repeatedly stated that the adoption of the pro-Armenian
resolutions by the US Congress will hinder the Armenian-Turkish
relations, but Armenia has never stated quite the opposite thing.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
David Stepanyan
ArmInfo
2009-12-19 16:08:00
ArmInfo's exclusive interview with Kiro Manoyan, ARFD Bureau's Hay
Dat and Political Affairs Office
Mr. Manoyan, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan has recently
declared that in case Azerbaijnan resumes military actions against
Armenia, the CSTO ought to render us military assistance. Is it
possible?
Azerbaijan has repeatedly declared that it is not going to attack
Armenia and it will fight only with Nagorny Karabakh which Baku
believes part of Azerbaijan. Therefore I am not sure that the CSTO
member-states will response to Armenia's call for assistance in case
Azerbaijani aggression against the NKR repeats. Armenia's commitments
to guard the NKR has not been recognized by the world community yet.
What about the bilateral strategic cooperation of Armenia and Russia?
In compliance with the bilateral agreements between Armenia and Russia,
Russian frontier guards are obliged to guard only the external borders
of Armenia to Turkey and Iran. For this reason, to expect deployment
of Russian servicemen at the border to Azerbaijan is impossible even
in case of the new aggression against our country. But it does not
at all mean that in case of necessity Armenia will not be able to
purchase weapon and armament from Russia as well as other countries.
What conditions does Aliyev need to realize his threats towards
Armenia?
Baku will start new aggression against Armenia and the NKR as soon
as it feels that the possibility of its victory reaches 51%. But in
today's real conditions, when there are the real borders and the line
of contact, even this 51% of possibility of victory does not give
Baku an opportunity of fulfilling its aggressive plans. As soon as
Azerbaijan feels it can gain a victory, it will attack.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan made two contradictory statements on the prospects of the
Armenian-Turkish process. Which one was closer to the golden mean?
There is no golden mean here. The stances of our countries have
a contradiction that originated already on the day of signing the
Protocols, i.e. the 3.5-hour delay of the signing in Zurich. Yet
before signing the Protocols, we had repeatedly stated that it is
impossible to ignore the statements by the Turkish prime minister,
president and foreign minister saying that ratification of the
Protocols is impossible without settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
Nevertheless, the statements by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
and the Turkish party made in the course of the Armenian-Turkish
negotiations after the Protocols were signed are also evidence of
the 180-degree contradictions between the positions of Armenia and
Turkey though the two documents do not contain these contradictions.
All this is another reason for Armenia to declare its refusal from
ratification of the Protocols in such conditions. Further protracting
the process, Armenia acts in favor of Turkey which is extremely
interested in it. Turkey is not interested in establishing diplomatic
relations with Armenia without settlement of the Karabakh conflict,
but it needs the negotiation process to prove its intentions to the
world community.
In addition, ratification of the Protocols is not expedient for
Turkey at least now, not only because of Azerbaijan, but because
of the latest processes connected with the Kurds. At the same time,
Turkey was interested in the accelerated implementation of agreements
with Armenia at least before March 2009 as this was required by
the geopolitical situation in region. Now that the conditions have
changed, Turkey has simply turned the negotiation process into the
lever of pressure on Armenia in the Karabakh peace process. I don't
think that it will manage to exercise this pressure, but the fact that
it is actively using this lever is quite clear. Moreover, today the
Armenian-Turkish relations have faded into insignificance for Ankara,
not least because of the latest conflict in Turkey connected with
the closure of a pro-Kurdish party.
Does it mean that the Protocols will not be ratified in the nearest
future?
I don't think that ratification of the Protocols within a reasonable
period of time, which for some unknown reason Armenia considers
February-March 2010, will be possible as Turkey will be simply unable
to do this. Therefore, without waiting for Ankara's response, Armenia
should state that the negotiations failed in connection with the
Turkey's preconditions on the Karabakh problem, however, if Turkey
gives up its preconditions, Yerevan is ready to continue them.
The Foreign Relations Committee of the Turkish Parliament was to pass
a resolution on the Armenian-Turkish Protocols at least on 7 December
in compliance with its Regulations but didn't. Why?
This is another reason for Armenia to say that Turkey is not ready to
ratify the protocols. 45 days have already passed since the Foreign
Ministry of Turkey submitted the protocols to the Turkish Parliament
but no decision has been adopted yet. There were reports that the
Committee might be pressured by the United States into approving
the protocols. But nothing of the kind has happened. Even more, the
Chairman of the Committee has assured Azeri media that, until Azeri
President Ilham Aliyev pointed out progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process, the committee would not examine the protocols. All
this gives us the right to say that the Armenian-Turkish process has
failed because of Turkey, which changed the rules of the game. The
later we state this, the harder it will be for us to do it. I do
not think that Ankara's real stance much differs from the one it
declares. This is not a game as Armenia believes it to be.
This stance is not set forth in the Protocols...
Yes, the Armenian-Turkish protocols do not mention Turkey's position,
which is based on preconditions against Armenia, nor do they specify
ratification deadlines. Both the Armenian and Turkish parliaments
are controlled by the ruling parties. In this light, the statement by
Erdogan, who controls over half of the Turkish MPs, that the Turkish
Parliament is democratic and independent is simply ridiculous.
Is there any progress in advancing pro-Armenian resolutions in the
US Congress?
H.Res. 252 is being considered by the House of Representatives, another
our resolution H.Res.316 - by the Senate. The number of supporters is
growing but now as quickly as we would like it to. The key reason is
that today the situation in the US political elite is much different
from the one present under the rule of the Republicans.
Today when the Democratic Party constitutes the majority in the
Congress and holds the White House, the work of the Congress and the
White House has become better coordinated and they do not have big
contradictions any longer. But this does not mean that they don't have
contradictions at all. So, we have to do much to overcome all obstacles
to the adoption of Armenian Genocide resolution by the Congress.
I think favorable conditions will be created for adoption of the
two resolutions by US Congress in 2010: the 95th anniversary of the
Armenian Genocide, election in Congress, and all this will have its
impact on the situation with pro-Armenian resolutions. However, the
main factor that may have affected the position of the Congress is
Armenia's official position on this issue. Neither Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan nor the Armenian foreign minister have told the Congress
so far that the adoption of the resolutions will by no means hinder
the Armenian-Turkish relations, whereas the need in this matured long
ago. Turkey has repeatedly stated that the adoption of the pro-Armenian
resolutions by the US Congress will hinder the Armenian-Turkish
relations, but Armenia has never stated quite the opposite thing.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress