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  • Costly Friendship

    COSTLY FRIENDSHIP
    by Denis Malkov, Maria Tsvetkova, Natalia Kostenko

    WPS Agency
    What the Papers Say (Russia)
    February 4, 2009 Wednesday
    Russia

    Russia promises its allies $3.5 billion and 100 billion rubles;
    Russia has promised a great deal of money to its allies in the past
    few days. These countries include Belarus, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, and
    Armenia. The Euro-Asian Economic Community is establishing its own
    Anti-Crisis Fund.

    In the past three days, Russia has promised its allies around $3.5
    billion, plus 100 billion rubles.

    At talks with Belarus yesterday, Russia agreed to deliver a $1 billion
    loan in February - following on from the $1 billion provided in
    November. Minsk has asked to borrow a further 100 billion rubles. On
    January 23, Deputy Finance Minister Dmitri Pankin told us: "We
    aren't even considering that request." But presidential aide Sergei
    Prikhodko said yesterday that staff have been instructed to work on
    this issue over the next two weeks; the loan sum in rubles hasn't
    been decided, but it would run into tens of billions. Pavel Borodin,
    state secretary of the Russia-Belarus Union State, assured us that
    Belarus would receive 100 billion rubles in the first half of 2009.

    President Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan announced in Moscow that
    the US air base at Manas, used to support US-NATO operations in
    Afghanistan since 2001, will soon be shut down. Bakiyev said that the
    USA hadn't been receptive to Kyrgyzstan's proposals regarding economic
    compensation for hosting the base. US General David Petraeus maintains
    that the American base brings in $63 million a year for Kyrgyzstan,
    while the rent is only around $17 million a year.

    The Euro-Asian Economic Community (EAEC) is holding an extraordinary
    summit in Moscow today. One of the two main items on the agenda is the
    Anti-Crisis Fund. This $10 billion fund was announced in December,
    when the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and
    Tajikistan met in Kazakhstan. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in
    late January that the money for the fund would be provided by Russia
    and Kazakhstan; the share contributed by the other countries would
    be small. The fund will be managed by a board, with each country
    having votes in proportion to its contributions. A Cabinet staff
    source told us that Russia is supposed to deliver 10% of its first
    annual contribution within three months of signing the agreement.

    A large delegation from Armenia, headed by President Serge Sargsian,
    has come to Moscow. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister
    Alexei Kudrin said on January 22 that Armenia has asked Russia for
    a stabilization loan. Vardan Aivazian, chairman of the parliament's
    economy commission, told us that Armenia is negotiating with Russia
    for a loan of $500 million to $1 billion.

    The Armenian parliament voted yesterday to approve Armenia joining the
    Euro-Asian Bank of Development, which will be used for Anti-Crisis
    Fund payments. The bank was established by Russia and Kazakhstan in
    2006 in order to finance EAEC projects. Its authorized capital is
    $1.5 billion, including $1 billion from Russia and $100,000 from
    Armenia. According to Armenian Energy Minister Armen Movsisian,
    participating in the bank will enable Armenia to raise money to build
    a new nuclear power plant and a railroad to Iran.

    Moscow's generosity began on January 30, when Medvedev held talks
    with Cuban leader Raoul Castro; the volume of loans and aid to
    Cuba grew from $20 million to $354 million. According to a Foreign
    Ministry source, the two sides agreed just a few hours before signing
    the papers that Russia would allocate an extra $150 million (to buy
    Russian-made agricultural and construction equipment) and $100 million
    (for leasing Russian machinery).

    Debts and loans were also discussed at talks with Kyrgyzstan yesterday.

    On January 28, following a visit to Bishkek, Deputy Prime Minister Igor
    Sechin said that Moscow is prepared to give Kyrgyzstan a non-repayable
    grant of $150 million, along with $300 million in the form of a
    low-interest loan, repayable over 40 years, with a seven-year grace
    period before repayments start.

    What's more, Moscow will write off $180 million of Kyrgyzstan's
    debts in exchange for a 48% stake (the largest stake) in OAO Dastan -
    an enterprise that produces torpedo components.

    Far more substantial aid to Kyrgyzstan was announced after yesterday's
    talks. As well as the debt write-off agreement, Russia and Kyrgyzstan
    also signed agreements on non-repayable financial aid ($150 million)
    and an immediate state loan of $2 billion. Moscow and Bishkek also
    agreed to build the Kambaratin hydro-electrical power plant together.

    President Emomali Rakhmon of Tajikistan arrived in Moscow yesterday
    after all. Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the CIS Countries
    Institute, says that Rakhmon made a mistake in ignoring a scheduled
    February 2 meeting with Medvedev; he had an opportunity to sort out
    the financing for the Rogun hydro-electrical power station (up to $3
    billion) and to discuss Uzbekistan's objections to this project.

    In each of these cases, there is a different explanation for Russia's
    generosity. A source from the presidential administration says
    that aid to Cuba is being increased due to Deputy Prime Minister
    Sechin's activity in Latin America; Sechin chairs the Russian-Cuban
    inter-governmental commission. The source adds that the EAEC fund is
    being established because Russia wants to reach agreement with its
    CIS neighbors on a common regional anti-crisis policy. Ermuhamet
    Ertysbayev, aide to President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan,
    told us that the fund is being established to facilitate a transition
    to ruble-based payments. According to Kudrin, Belarus needs the 100
    billion rubles "to increase its gold and currency reserves." Medvedev
    said that aid to Kyrgyzstan is being provided due to the special
    alliance nature of bilateral relations.

    Vadim Gustov, chairman of the Federation Council's CIS Affairs
    Committee: "Russia is showing its neighbors that it's a good friend
    in times of trouble. If we don't give them the money, others will."

    Vladimir Nikitin, a member of the Duma's CIS Affairs Committee, says
    that the Russian leadership is pursuing geopolitical objectives: the
    question of whether Kyrgyzstan will continue to cooperate with the USA,
    and the question of which way Tajikistan and Turkmenistan will look.

    Zharikhin explains that the loans are being granted to countries
    that have visa-free travel agreements with Russia and practically no
    borders: if the situation turns critical in any of these countries,
    millions of refugees would flood into Russia. From Moscow's
    perspective, it's much better to keep them afloat now.
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