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CHOOSING WHERE TO STAND
By David L. Phillips
IHT
February 20, 2009
Detractors of Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insist
that his Justice and Development Party is really a Trojan horse for
an Islamist agenda.
As validation, they point to Erdogan's recent spat with Israeli
President Shimon Peres at the Davos World Economic Forum and his
support for Hamas.
Not only is it in Turkey's interest to restore ties to Israel,
but Erdogan must also show the United States and Europe that he is
a reliable partner by addressing other issues of concern - such as
normalizing Turkey's relations with Armenia and Cyprus.
I recently met representatives of the Turkish Caucus in the
U.S. Congress.
They were stunned by Erdogan's description of Israeli policy in Gaza as
a "crime against humanity." They were even more troubled by the hero's
welcome he received upon returning from Davos to Istanbul. Thousands
of his party faithful thronged the airport waving the green flags
of Hamas.
Erdogan did not plan his confrontation with Peres in Davos. But he
was quick to seek political gain from it. With local elections coming
up on March 29, his support for Hamas has given his party a boost in
polls. Heralding Hamas's democratic credentials plays well on the
"Turkish street." It has also made Erdogan the darling of Damascus
and Tehran.
Turkey's supporters on Capitol Hill - along with Jewish groups that
support Ankara's rapprochement with Israel - have worked feverishly
to defeat previous resolutions. Turkish parliamentarians met last
week with their typically steadfast allies. But after Davos, they
turned a cold shoulder.
If the resolution is adopted, Turkish officials will protest
vehemently.
Ankara may even go so far as to block U.S. access to Incirlik Air
Force Base in southeast Turkey. Incirlik has been a base for U.S. war
planes since the first Gulf War. Today it is critical to supplying
troops in Afghanistan and redeploying forces from Iraq.
Closing Incirlik would cause a major crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations.
Nobody wants this to happen. The Obama administration is keenly
aware of Turkey's strategic importance. It knows that Turkey is a
valued NATO ally and partner in the fight against violent extremist
groups. Turkish troops are deployed alongside U.S. and NATO forces in
Afghanistan. Turkey plays a moderating role in Central Asia and is the
terminus for energy supplies from the Caspian Sea to western markets.
But while Turkey is an indispensable ally, the onus for avoiding a
diplomatic train wreck rests with Erdogan. He can preempt a crisis
by initiating normalized diplomatic relations and opening the border
between Turkey and Armenia.
There is no linkage between normalizing relations and a decision to
recognize the Armenian Genocide. And Turkey's conciliatory gesture
would not go unnoticed in Washington. Nor would its efforts to improve
increasingly strained relations with the EU.
If Erdogan wants to avert a showdown with Brussels, he must also
do more to resolve the situation in Cyprus. Turkey invaded Cyprus
in 1974, and the island remains divided today. The EU will evaluate
Turkey's prospects for membership at year's end. While Brussels is
not likely to formally suspend negotiations, it will decide not to
expand negotiations absent progress in UN-mediated talks to reunify
the island.
Opening Turkish ports to Cypriot ships would increase pressure on
Greek Cypriots to negotiate in greater earnest. It would also take
Turkey off the hook when it comes to parceling out blame in case
reunification talks flounder.
If Erdogan wants to restore his reputation as a statesman and a
reliable partner of the West, Turkey must repair its ties with
Israel, normalize relations with Armenia, and welcome ships from
Cyprus. Becoming an advocate for Hamas is a mistake. Turkey's future
lies with the West. The Islamist street leads away from Europe to
the Middle East.
David L. Phillips is a visiting scholar at Columbia University and
director of the Turkey Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the
United States.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By David L. Phillips
IHT
February 20, 2009
Detractors of Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, insist
that his Justice and Development Party is really a Trojan horse for
an Islamist agenda.
As validation, they point to Erdogan's recent spat with Israeli
President Shimon Peres at the Davos World Economic Forum and his
support for Hamas.
Not only is it in Turkey's interest to restore ties to Israel,
but Erdogan must also show the United States and Europe that he is
a reliable partner by addressing other issues of concern - such as
normalizing Turkey's relations with Armenia and Cyprus.
I recently met representatives of the Turkish Caucus in the
U.S. Congress.
They were stunned by Erdogan's description of Israeli policy in Gaza as
a "crime against humanity." They were even more troubled by the hero's
welcome he received upon returning from Davos to Istanbul. Thousands
of his party faithful thronged the airport waving the green flags
of Hamas.
Erdogan did not plan his confrontation with Peres in Davos. But he
was quick to seek political gain from it. With local elections coming
up on March 29, his support for Hamas has given his party a boost in
polls. Heralding Hamas's democratic credentials plays well on the
"Turkish street." It has also made Erdogan the darling of Damascus
and Tehran.
Turkey's supporters on Capitol Hill - along with Jewish groups that
support Ankara's rapprochement with Israel - have worked feverishly
to defeat previous resolutions. Turkish parliamentarians met last
week with their typically steadfast allies. But after Davos, they
turned a cold shoulder.
If the resolution is adopted, Turkish officials will protest
vehemently.
Ankara may even go so far as to block U.S. access to Incirlik Air
Force Base in southeast Turkey. Incirlik has been a base for U.S. war
planes since the first Gulf War. Today it is critical to supplying
troops in Afghanistan and redeploying forces from Iraq.
Closing Incirlik would cause a major crisis in U.S.-Turkish relations.
Nobody wants this to happen. The Obama administration is keenly
aware of Turkey's strategic importance. It knows that Turkey is a
valued NATO ally and partner in the fight against violent extremist
groups. Turkish troops are deployed alongside U.S. and NATO forces in
Afghanistan. Turkey plays a moderating role in Central Asia and is the
terminus for energy supplies from the Caspian Sea to western markets.
But while Turkey is an indispensable ally, the onus for avoiding a
diplomatic train wreck rests with Erdogan. He can preempt a crisis
by initiating normalized diplomatic relations and opening the border
between Turkey and Armenia.
There is no linkage between normalizing relations and a decision to
recognize the Armenian Genocide. And Turkey's conciliatory gesture
would not go unnoticed in Washington. Nor would its efforts to improve
increasingly strained relations with the EU.
If Erdogan wants to avert a showdown with Brussels, he must also
do more to resolve the situation in Cyprus. Turkey invaded Cyprus
in 1974, and the island remains divided today. The EU will evaluate
Turkey's prospects for membership at year's end. While Brussels is
not likely to formally suspend negotiations, it will decide not to
expand negotiations absent progress in UN-mediated talks to reunify
the island.
Opening Turkish ports to Cypriot ships would increase pressure on
Greek Cypriots to negotiate in greater earnest. It would also take
Turkey off the hook when it comes to parceling out blame in case
reunification talks flounder.
If Erdogan wants to restore his reputation as a statesman and a
reliable partner of the West, Turkey must repair its ties with
Israel, normalize relations with Armenia, and welcome ships from
Cyprus. Becoming an advocate for Hamas is a mistake. Turkey's future
lies with the West. The Islamist street leads away from Europe to
the Middle East.
David L. Phillips is a visiting scholar at Columbia University and
director of the Turkey Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the
United States.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress