armenianow - feb 20

[Chaltikian Arsine]

ARMENIANOW.COM
Administration Address: 26 Parpetsi St., No 9
Phone: +(374 1) 532422
Email: [email protected]
Internet: www.armenianow.com
Technical Assistance: (For technical assistance please contact Babken
Juharyan)
Email: [email protected]

*************************** **************************************************
February 20, 2009,

1. "They Mock our Dead": Families/supporters outraged by latest
March 1 report

2. The Politics of Table Water: "National Treasure" Bjni changes
hands in disputed sale

3. Taxing Taxis: Drivers protest new law on livery service

4. Shifting Neighborhood: What are Turkey's intentions as new
movement stirs in Caucasus?

5. Advocating Unity: Diaspora Affairs Minister to stress
cooperation during D.C. conference

6. Weathering the Storm: A Commentary on Armenia and the
Economics of Defense

7. Renaissance..., so far Administrative: Karabakh authorities
decide to "revitalize" Shushi

8. Scattered dreams: Residents of damaged houses in Lori province
get no help from the government

9. Costly Trophy: Park ranger fired and fined for killing boar on
"protected" territory, stirring debate on reservations

10. Management 101: Government identifies need for project managers

**************************************** ************************************
1. "THEY MOCK OUR DEAD": FAMILIES/SUPPORTERS OUTRAGED BY LATEST MARCH 1 REPORT

By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

In a change of opinion that has outraged family of victims of last
March 1 violence, a report by Russian ballistics experts now says it
is not possible to determine specific "Cheryomukha 7" guns that caused
the deaths of three civilians in clashes with police.

Forensic investigation revealed that Tigran Khachatryan, Armen
Farmanyan and Gor Kloyan were killed by the gas-powered guns used by
police. The over-sized weapons are meant to fire gas grenades and
their plastic-tipped bullets are not designed to be fatal. But - as
former President Robert Kocharyan himself said last March - because
the weapons in the Armenian police arsenal had been on hand since
before independence (1991), they malfunctioned, leading to the deaths.

The three deaths have been the focus of investigation, as they
conclusively were determined to have been caused by weapons carried by
police on March 1. Experts say the deaths resulted from mis-use of the
weapons - that the three were shot directly and deliberately by a
weapon that was meant to be fired for crowd control.

In November, Armenian investigators said it was impossible to link
bullet fragments to specific weapons. Initially, Russian experts said
that it was possible.

The Prosecutor's Office solicited information from the manufacturer of
the ammunition and later turned to experts at Russia's Ministry of
Internal affairs, who said that each bullet should be traceable to the
specific gun from which it was fired and, thus, each officer held to
account for whether he properly engaged deadly force. The March 1
investigation has also found that only four officers were using the
guns in question.

On February 13, however, the Russian experts reported that "traces
found on the presented bullets are not suited for identification,"
leading to charges that a "deal" had been struck between Russian and
Armenian authorities.

"This is cynicism by which they mock not only the whole nation but
also our dead sons," says Allah Hovhannisyan, mother of Khachatryan.

Since July, the Prosecutor's Office has said it has appealed to
various international organizations (UN, OSCE, US Ambassador to
Armenia) to provide them with experts in order to find out who fired
the shots which the former president referred to as "special
techniques".

In December the NA Temporary Committee on the March 1 events sent a
letter to the Russian Federation Ministry of Internal Affairs to find
information about the characteristics of the bullets of Cheryomukha 7
gas grenades. During the same period, a day later, the Prosecutor sent
a letter, having a similar content; however the Committee did not get
an answer. The Prosecutor, however, heard directly from Moscow and it
was this turn of events that led oppositionists including MP Aram
Karapetyan, Head of New Times political party see a cover-up
conspiracy.

"The problem is that during that period representatives of the police
and, as far as I know, even representatives from the President's
staff, arrived in Moscow, in order to implement the 'traditional
methods' and get the answer they need, so that the revelation is
failed," says Karapetyan, alleging that "traditional methods" mean
deceit.

Due to the answer submitted by the Research Institute of Special
Technique and Communication specialized in the production of
Cheryomukha 7 gas bullets, Armenia obtained the ammunition before
1990. The experts say the bullets have a "shelf life" of five years,
and should not be fired if they have been stored any longer.

In a March 20 press conference President Kocharyan said: "We inherited
those special techniques from the Soviet period; and the events proved
that what we had is rather old, and they are not always safe. We would
have three victims less if those special techniques were, in fact,
safer."

The Russian experts, though, reported that even if the bullets were
expired, they should not be fatal unless shot directly at someone
(rather than into the air as is standard for teargas crowd control).

Based on this argument, members of the Parliamentary Committee
maintain that the reason for the deaths is that the weapons were
wielded in violation of their purpose.

"The problem is that the three youngsters died not of gas, but because
they were shot directly to their heads, that is, they were executed,"
Karapetyan told ArmeniaNow adding that "if they wanted to figure out
who the murderers were, they would have done it long ago."

According to their own report, police fired into the air. However,
autopsies showed that two of the men were shot in the head and another
in the hip.

Victim Tigran Khachatryan's mother says that it is mentioned in the
forensic medicine conclusion that the bullet cut into his body "by
high kinetic power".

"Specialists explained to me that a bullet cuts into a body by high
kinetic power when it is shot from a short distance and directly
towards a person. It means that the possibility of ricochet is
excluded. So my son was directly shot," Allah Hovhannisyan told
ArmeniaNow.

The victims' families also question why ballistic experts were
consulted only in December, when the bullets were recovered in March.

"Preliminary examination was being carried out before, registration
books (containing information on which officers were assigned which
weapons), were being studied, people were being questioned," answers
Vahagn Haroutounyan, Chairman of the NA March 1 Temporary Commission
and Head of the Special Investigative Service.

Former Minister of Internal Affairs, former Yerevan mayor Suren
Abrahamyan says that it is within the framework of accepted demands to
consult experts so late.

"However, that is not the problem," says Haroutounyan who has 25 years
experience in investigation. "This expertise is only one way out of
ten to find out the killers. If there were a wish, it would be
possible to settle the issue during several days," He insists that in
this case the shooting police officers are the least guilty. Those who
ordered them to shoot must be held to answer.

"The one who is the most responsible for what happened is the one who
issued an order. An officer did not have the right to use a weapon
independently."

Republic of Armenia Ombudsman Armen Harutyunyan is among those
dissatisfied with the latest conclusions:

"I do not trust these expert examinations," the public defender says.
"I do not believe that there are four people (police officers, who
were assigned the weapons), and there are three people killed, and it
is not possible to find out who is guilty."

*********************************** *****************************************
2. THE POLITICS OF TABLE WATER: "NATIONAL TREASURE" BJNI CHANGES HANDS
IN DISPUTED SALE

By Gayane Lazarian
ArmeniaNow reporter

This week the Bjni Mineral Water Factory, previously belonging to
fugitive oppositionist MP Khachatur Sukiasyan, was bought by
well-known businessman MP Rouben Hayrapetyan, a member of the ruling
Republican Party and Head of the RA Football Federation.

It is believed that Hayrapetyan paid thÅ Ásking price of about $14.5 million.

(Sukiasyan has been out of the country for nearly a year after his
controversial support of losing presidential candidate Levon
Ter-Petrosyan. Sukiasyan is wanted by authorities for his alleged role
in last March 1's bloody and deadly uprising.)

Sukiasyan's family has owned the successful water plant since 1997 But
in 2008 the government brought tax and other charges against it that
Sukiasyan supporters say were fabricated because of his support of
Ter-Petrosyan. The government seized the plant. (see
http://www.armenianow.com/?action=viewArticle &AID=3526&lng=eng&IID=1221&CID= 340 4)

The plant was put to auction on January 23, but there were no bidders
on the original offer.

A year ago Gagik Tsarukyan, the most powerful businessman in Armenia
and head of the Prosperous Armenia political party announced that as
"Khachik Sukiasyan's friend and counterpart, I would never participate
in that auction." The weighty oligarch encouraged others to not bid on
the plant.

Hayrapetyan said he made a simple business deal, telling 168 Hours
newspaper: "The State put it to auction, and I bought it."

Another prominent businessman, President of 'Grand Holding' Hrant
Vardanyan, referring to the current global economic crisis, states
that today the most important thing is that Bjni will start running
again.

"It was founded by 'SIL Group' Co. Ltd, by Sukiasyan's family, he
worked on it for many years, and now, in fact, the State, with its
expectations and checking, sells it. What is the difference who would
buy it from the State - Roubik Hayrapetyan, Head of the Armenian
Football Federation, or Hrant Vardanyan, or Poghos Poghosyan? The most
important thing is that Bjni will start running as soon as possible,
even an hour earlier. This value should not disappear. This is the way
I understand it.

As for the question why he did not participate in the auction,
Vardanyan said he had no interest in mineral water production.

The rights to the plant located in Bjni village, as well as the
Charentsavan branch with its lines, 'Bjni' and 'Noy' trademarks were
put to auction.

Oppositionists see the closing of the plant as politically-motivated
and question whether any other businessmen might have problems with
authorities if they do not support the current regime.

Says Vardanyan, "It (charges of political tampering) is not true. I do
not support anyone. I support the President of my country, be it you,
I would support you, our statehood. I have no problem. Recently the
taxes for cigarette were raised by 18 %. Is anyone aware of it? No,
because it was done the way so that common customers would not suffer
from it. I mean, we came to an agreement with the Government not to
raise the retail price because of the tax rise."

Bjni Company attorney Ara Zohrabyan announced that the auction of the
property and the rights to properties belonging to the factory is
illegal, and that Sukiasyan's family will sue to retain the rights to
'Bjni' and 'Noy' trademarks. They are also planning to appeal to the
European Court of Human Rights, asking it to annul the auction,
asserting that the owner suffers political persecution.
************************************* ***************************************
3. TAXING TAXIS: DRIVERS PROTEST NEW LAW ON LIVERY SERVICE

By Siranuysh Gevorgyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

Armenia's taxi drivers have been in a long-running dispute with
authorities since stricter laws were introduced to regulate the
transport service.

For example, in November 2008, the Ministry of Transport announced
that no vehicle would be issued a livery license if the car was older
than 10 years.

Further, the fee for the license itself became 200,000 drams ($655),
up from 25,000 drams ($81). Finally, drivers are rebelling against
having to have their vehicles carry a special, yellow, license plate -
as was issued a few years ago to public minibuses. They claim that
obeying all this regulations will not allow them to have even a little
benefit from their work because of different types of payment
obligations.

Taxi driver Arman Grigoryan, 31, who is the only supporter of his
five-member family, says that currently he manages to earn AMD
1,000-2,000 per day (about $3-6).

"I sold my two (older) cars at a very low price and instead, I bought
a car produced in 2007 on credit, in order to be able to work.
February 20, 2009 is the deadline for my credit payment, I have to pay
80,000 drams ($262), however, I have no idea where to get that amount
in order to pay," says Grigoryan.

Drivers must pay 13,000 drams ($42) to get the 'yellow registration
number.' A taxi driver, who does not have a license, is fined by
20,000 drams ($65) the first time, and double of the amount the second
time.

According to the data of the RA Ministry of Transportation and
Communication, 550 organizations, with 6,500 transportation means,
have been licensed in Armenia. Besides, drivers are to be registered
as private enterprisers; they must have an agreement with an auto
mechanic for the examination of the car, as well as an agreement with
a doctor for examining a driver's health condition.

"They also demand to install a counting machine in the car; it is not
beneficial for me to work that way. I agree on the price with a
passenger," says Grigoryan.

Grigoryan and his colleagues insistently evade entering paying taxes,
reasoning that in this case they will have to work with an accountant.
They used to work individually for years, and now it is hard for them
to meet the demands.

Currently taxi drivers demand the maintenance of their, so called,
'white registration numbers,' and they want to get a document having
the role of a license, which they may glue on the windscreen of their
cars. And taxi drivers, having foreign cars, demand the limitation
period to be 15 years instead of ten, insisting that their cars with
their technical capacity are much better than Russian cars produced
2-3 years ago.

Grigoryan and his friends are relying on the cooperation with the RA
National Assembly. A week ago Armen Martirosyan, Head of Heritage
Party (oppositional) bloc, suggested making an addition in the 'RA Law
on Automobile Transportation.'

A press release from the party says that it worries that implementing
the stricter rules will only intensify the hardship taxi drivers
already face with the global economic crisis. It also favors a 15-year
schedule for foreign-made (non-Russian) taxis.

"As for the 'yellow registration numbers,' when the Government compels
taxi driver to have them, it forgets that in this case drivers will
not be able to leave the territory of Armenia by their cars. It means
that during vacations only Georgian cars can serve people having their
rest at Georgian beaches. Thus, the Government should develop such a
mechanism, which would allow a service with average registration
numbers, too," says deputy Martirosyan.

Taxi drivers also turned to 'Achilles' (Society for the Defense of
Drivers Rights) NGO (non-governmental organization). This organization
is planning to send a letter to the RA Government on behalf of drivers
and is collecting signatures.

"A mechanism must be developed that would not threaten taxi drivers.
So that they will not have to turn to an accountant to pay their
taxes; taxi drivers should do it themselves via trade banks," says
Achilles director Edward Hovhannisyan.

Meanwhile taxi drivers continue protesting while about 100 private
taxi drivers found a profitable way of evading paying taxes. They
founded 'Varord-Vostikan' ('Driver-Policeman)Ltd, where any driver can
work; he/she can get a corresponding document, pay AMD 22,000 per
month ($72) and drive his/her taxi. 'Driver-Policeman' is like a 'taxi
service,' yet without a telephone-operator and calls. The head of the
Company is taxi driver Gevorg Dosturyan and according to him, a driver
will pay them a set amount of money and forget about tax services -
which would presumably be paid by the company.

Protesting taxi drivers consider their colleagues from
'Driver-Policeman' to be betrayers, because they agree with all the
demands dictated by the Government. They believe that the management
of 'Driver-Policeman' Company decided to make money at taxi drivers'
expense.

******************************* *********************************************
4. SHIFTING NEIGHBORHOOD: WHAT ARE TURKEY'S INTENTIONS AS NEW MOVEMENT
STIRS IN CAUCASUS?

Analysis by Aris Ghazinyan

Turkey's positions have recently strengthened perceptibly in the
political processes surrounding the Caucasus region. Theses positions
were never weak after the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, such
activation has not been observed during the whole post-Soviet period.
It is enough to mention that on January 1 Turkey became a
non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2 years.

Making an attempt not to miss "the historical chance," Ankara has
already come up with the initiative of creating the Platform of
stability and cooperation in the Caucasus, which, as the Turks
themselves claim, "must become a platform for discussing issues"
between five countries in the region: Turkey, Russia, Georgia,
Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Taking into account the amount of
contradictions between these states, the proposed initiative produces
an impression of a very serious project. All the invited parties have
already stated they are "for" it, although some political forces in
Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh do not think Yerevan's approving position
is a correct step.

"Turkey's initiative of creating the security platform disregards the
realities shaped in the region," a member of ARF Dashnaktsutyun Bureau
Vahan Hovhannisyan announced. "It will be efficient only if it takes
into account the fact that there are six, and not three state
formations in the region: Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan (UNO
members) and Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Thus,
official Ankara completely ignores the fact that such distribution
exists on the territory of the South Caucasus and is primordially
oriented towards the invariability of the region's political map."

The government circles of Nagorno Karabakh support the idea voiced by
Hovhannisyan. A number of Nagorno Karabakh politicians believe that
the participation of Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia in
the work of the platform is imperative. Otherwise, it makes no sense.

Opinions were expressed that Moscow, whose recognition of the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should be taken into
account, will hardly agree to the Turkish initiative, which is mainly
based on the inviolability of the borders of the three South Caucasus
countries. To clarify these and other issues the President of Turkey
Abdullah Gul went to Moscow on February 12 for a three-day state
visit.
....
Before departure he announced, "The relations between Russia and
Turkey are more than 500 years old, and today it is going through the
highest phase of prosperity in history." Speaking about the Platform
of stability and cooperation in the Caucasus, Gul said: " In this part
of the planet there are a lot of frozen conflicts, but it would be
wrong to attempt keeping them in the freezer forever."

He also announced that it is Moscow that plays the key role in
settling the Karabakh issue. On February 13, on the basis of the
outcome of the negotiations, Presidents Gul and Russian President
Dimitry Medvedev signed a joint declaration on the advance to a new
stage of relations between Russia and Turkey and the further
consolidation of friendship and multilateral partnership.

"Turkey wants to include the solutions of problems with Armenia into
the context of its relations with Russia and, by doing so, to decrease
the significance of Armenian-Turkish relations," political scientist
Manvel Sargsyan said in this respect. "In the case of such
positioning, supposing we manage to reach an agreement in the issue of
Armenian-Turkish relations, Turkey will hardly make concessions in the
Karabakh settlement issue."
Sargsyan thought it suspicious that on the day of adopting the
Turkish-Russian declaration during the visit of Gul to Moscow the
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev suddenly expressed his conviction
in the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict.
"Azerbaijan is hoping that in this case a plan of resolving the
Karabakh issue may be worked out that will be beneficial for
Azerbaijan; it is hard to give another explanation for Aliev's words,"
Sargsyan stressed.

Director of the Oriental Studies Institute of the National Academy of
Sciences of RA Ruben Safrastyan has a different point of view. "I
don't see any reasons why we should revise our approach to the
relations between Turkey and Russia. Historically Russia and Turkey
were opponents in the region, and Caucasus was the region that each of
them was trying to either join to their country, or take under
protection. There are no signals that the situation has changed; we
are witnessing a certain political coordination of activity, a
developed economic cooperation, but in the military-political sphere
we have different vectors, from the strategic viewpoint there are
still no changes in the policy of Russia and Turkey."

As to the Karabakh conflict settlement, Safrastyan thinks that
"positive shifts in the Russian-Turkish relations will hardly have any
influence on settling the conflict. In my opinion, the Karabakh
conflict is the sphere in which the interests of the two states do not
coincide, but clash."

According to him, the fact that Ankara is demonstrating attempts to
restore the relations with Armenia, is first of all related to the
preparation of the new resolution on the Armenian Genocide in the US
Congress. Besides, Safrastyan believes that the efforts of Turkish
diplomats will most likely have positive results - President Barack
Obama will refrain from using the term "genocide" in his April 24
speech.

"In a telephone conversation with the Turkish leaders Obama raised the
issue of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations, and I am sure he was
told about the negotiations with Armenians and that the intervention
of the US and the topic of genocide will have negative influence on
the process."

Answering the question about the consequences of a possible
recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the US Congress, Minister Ali
Babajan said on February that any intervention of a third country into
the on-going negotiation process between Armenia and Turkey can have
negative impact.

"The Armenian-Turkish dialogue is aimed at normalizing the whole
complex of the bilateral relations, and while the sides acknowledge
progress and continue to conduct such important negotiations, each one
must abstain from taking steps that could harm the process."

This statement was dictated by the fear that the Jewish lobby in the
USA may (practically for the first time in history) support "the
Armenian resolution." In other words, the Turkish diplomat made it
clear that the process of the genocide recognition in the US Congress
can mark the wrapping up of the Turkish-Armenian dialogue on
establishing diplomatic relations, and "the American Congressmen will
be the ones to blame for this."

Taking into account the increased tension between Turkey and Israel,
Safrastyan thinks that "the Jewish lobby is not so unambiguous in its
support of Turkey, therefore, the probability of adopting the Genocide
resolution in Congress is still high."

Thus, it is premature to speak about a more or less specific scenario
of the development of the political processes. Everything changes very
rapidly and it is uncertain how much time the formation of a new
distribution of powers will take.

******************************************* *********************************
5. ADVOCATING UNITY: DIASPORA AFFAIRS MINISTER TO STRESS COOPERATION
DURING D.C. CONFERENCE

By Arpi Harutyunyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
And from Assembly Press Center (www.aaainc.org)

Armenia's Ministry of Diaspora Affairs founded in 2008 joins
pan-Armenian structures, aimed at uniting Armenians all over the
world. Through its programs, the ministry will play a vital role in
further strengthening the ties between Diaspora communities
worldwide, and the homeland.
Having created departments aimed at developing connections with
countries where there is a large Armenian community, today the
Ministry is closely cooperating with such major organizations as the
Armenian Assembly of America.
In that cooperation, Armenia's Minister of Diaspora Affairs, Hranush
Hakobyan, will be an honored guest at the Assembly's 2009 National
Advocacy Conference Banquet in Washington, DC, on March 3.

"Diaspora organizations play a pivotal role around the world," says
Hakobyan from her office in Yerevan. "I feel privileged to speak to
Armenian-American activists. The Assembly's continued advocacy in
Congress has benefited both Armenian-Americans and Armenia alike."
According to the minister, during her presentation to the conference,
she will address four areas of concern including: the continuation of
Millennium Challenge Program in Armenia' the pursuit of peace in the
Caucasus region; recognition of Genocide; and strengthening
Armenia-Diaspora relationships.
"The establishment of this kind of ministry isn't aimed to controlling
the Diaspora, but to join all Armenian communities and to systemize
their work," says Hakobyan stressing also the importance of Armenian
communities' willingness to work hand in hand.

Hakobyan was invited to attend the Advocacy Conference during a recent
meeting with Armenian Assembly of America Chairman Hirair Hovnanian
and Assembly Country Director Arpi Vartanian. Hovnanian stressed the
need to continue working with the new U.S. Administration.

"I believe the Armenian Diaspora continues to have faith in, and a
commitment to, building a strong Armenian state and nation," said
Vartanian. "With a Diaspora reaching the four corners of the world,
the recently-established Ministry of Diaspora Affairs faces many
challenges to further strengthen Diaspora-Homeland ties. This can be
done, but it requires commitment and support from the Diaspora and
Homeland alike. Minister Hakobyan brings years of vast experience, as
well as a palpable and infectious enthusiasm to her new position."
The Minister of Diaspora Affairs stresses that Armenia is the
motherland of all Armenians, hence, its problems are also the problems
of all Armenians, and all of them have to take efforts to find
solutions.
Prioritizing the issues of repatriation and unification [of the
Armenian nation], Hakobyan hopes to take another step in that
direction by taking as active part as possible in the March
conference.

Click here for conference details.

**************************************** ************************************
6. WEATHERING THE STORM: A COMMENTARY ON ARMENIA AND THE ECONOMICS OF
DEFENSE

By Richard Giragosian

In a region that has only recently witnessed a war between Russia and
Georgia, defense and security issues remain priority concerns. But
over the past few years, the increase in defense spending among the
countries of the region has raised new concerns over the implications
from such an arms race.

In addition, there is a related worry over the long-term impact from
such a militarization of the region, especially for Armenia, as
Azerbaijan has been using its oil wealth to fuel ever-larger defense
budgets. Most worrying for Armenia, the constant drone of
Azerbaijan's militant rhetoric to "solve" the Nagorno Karabagh
conflict by force has been bolstered by several years of
billion-dollar-plus defense budgets. That combination of militant
rhetoric and military spending now poses one of the most serious
threats to regional security and stability.

Shared Concerns

For Armenia, the continued threats of war and sizable defense spending
by Azerbaijan loom large in the minds of Armenian defense planners.
Faced with the possibility for renewed war, some Armenian officials
welcomed the 4 February decision during the Moscow summit of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) -- a body to which
Armenia belongs - to create new "Collective Rapid Response Forces,"
aimed at becoming "an effective tool in providing security" within the
CSTO, in the words of Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

According to General Haik Kotanjian, the head of the Armenian Defense
Ministry's Institute for National Strategic Studies, the decision
"creates a solid political, treaty-legal and military foundation" for
the collective defense of CSTO members, including Armenia (see "Summit
in Moscow" February 13 2009). According to Kotanjian, the planned
formation of new rapid reaction forces will offer "a real mechanism of
resisting aggression," hinting at the threat to Armenia from
Azerbaijan.

And for Nagorno Karabagh, which after Russia's recognition of the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, is now the
sole remaining "frozen" conflict in the region, the threats posed by a
re-armed and re-assertive Azerbaijan can not be ignored.

But Armenia should not be the only one concerned over such a threat to
regional security. The international community should also be
worried, especially since the August 2008 war in Georgia only
demonstrated the vulnerability of the region's oil and gas pipelines
from renewed hostilities.

In addition to the fragility of the regional energy infrastructure,
there are also several broader economic considerations, of even
greater and longer lasting concern.

The Fallacy of Economic Deterrence

First, it is now clear, as the war in Georgia revealed, the flow of
oil and gas from the Caspian through the region is hostage to the
inherent insecurity of the countries of the South Caucasus. But such
vulnerability is certainly not a new development, as Western attempts
to develop Iraq's oil sector have failed repeatedly in the face of
incessant instability, for only one example. What was different in
the Georgian case was the utter failure of the "economic deterrent"
that was presumed to underscore Western commitments to security in the
region.

More specifically, although the war in Georgia interrupted the flow of
oil and from the Caspian and halted pipeline operations, the response
was surprising. Prior to the August war, many analysts expected that
by virtue of the sizable Western investments in the regional energy
sector, which included the massive Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline,
Western oil companies would do all in their power to pressure their
governments to take immediate steps to end the conflict. Yet there
was no concerted pressure, neither from the Western oil companies nor
the states often thought to act on their behalf.

The lesson of such empty "economic deterrence" suggests that in the
event of a future conflict in the region, such as a war initiated by
Azerbaijan, there should be no real expectation of an immediate or
effective Western response. So much for the fallacy of British
Petroleum exercising its influence over Azerbaijan to prevent war in
order to maintain the flow of its oil supplies.

The Risk of Hostilities & the "Hostilities of Risk"

The second factor of defense economics is the relationship between the
risk of hostilities and the "hostilities of risk." Notably, there is
an inverse relationship between an increasing level of the risk of
hostilities and an increasingly hostile level of risk, affirmed by the
fact that international capital may pull out of a region once it
becomes too dangerous to operate or too unstable to protect
investments.

Ironically, this rather basic business maxim poses more of a threat to
Azerbaijan than to Armenia. It also means that by aspiring to replace
Armenia as the region's dominant military power and threatening to
retake Karabakh by force, Azerbaijan may soon face a worried group of
investors who may decide that the risk outweighs the profit in
Azerbaijan. And Azerbaijan is especially vulnerable to any downturn
in investor confidence because of its over-reliance on foreign capital
amid falling oil prices and due to a lack of industry beyond its
energy sector.

Richard Giragosian is the director of the Yerevan-based Armenian
Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), and has worked
as a consultant for various international organizations including the
OSCE, World Bank, and regularly contributes to Jane's, RFE/RL, and
Newsweek International, among other publications. Giragosian is a
former professional staff member of the US Congress. "Weathering the
Storm" is a weekly column exclusively for ArmeniaNow.
************************************** **************************************
7. RENAISSANCE..., SO FAR ADMINISTRATIVE: KARABAKH AUTHORITIES DECIDE TO
"REVITALIZE" SHUSHI

By Naira Hairumyan

Officials in Karabakh have decided to move a number of state
institutions from Stepanakert to Shushi in an attempt to revive the
town that - a century ago - was considered one of the 4 most
significant towns in the Caucasus. Shushi, 15 kilometers from the
capital, Stepanakert, was one of the most devastated settlements
following the war of 1991-94.

Starting from autumn 2008, two buildings not far from "Kanach Zham"
church have been reconstructed, and it is into these buildings that
the Supreme and Appeals Courts will move, according to preliminary
data. The facilities for the state cadastre committee, the ombudsman's
office and the Ministry of Culture are still in the mapping-out
process. About 40 people work at these institutions.

The government's decision is conditioned by the fact that this is the
only way to breathe a new life into the town that had up to 45,000
residents at the beginning of the 20th century, more than half of the
population being Armenians. At the end of 19th - the beginning of 20th
century 22 newspapers were published in Shushi, there were 7 churches,
and a theater. As a result of the massacres of Armenians at the hands
of Turkish-Tatar forces in 1920s, the greatest part of the cultural
heritage of Shushi vanished (20,000 Armenians were killed and about
700 buildings were destroyed).

As a result of the Armenian-Azeri war in 1991-1994 the town was almost
completely destroyed. Now the greatest part of the town consists of
half-destroyed houses of the 18th-19th centuries that are tumbling
down because of the wind, rains, and the human factor. Not more than
3,000 people live in Shushi now.

Karabakh authorities linked the rebirth of the city with the potential
of the Diaspora, considering that the state budget of Karabakh cannot
afford it, although the total sum necessary for revitalizing the town
was not even calculated. Every year small amounts were allocated to
"maintain" the town; the largest sum - about 400 million drams ($1.3
million) - was allocated in 2008. Within the 15 post-war years the
road to the Cathedral of St. Savior (Kazanchetsots) was renovated, gas
was supplied and the road and the entrance to the town were renovated.

In the autumn of 2008 Levon Hayrapetyan, a patron famous in Karabakh,
announced about his "patronage" in the course of Shushi's rebirth. He
promised that in a few years 50,000 people would live in the town.
But, perhaps because of the world economic crisis, the projects have
not started yet. Authorities say that a master plan of the town is
being designed, and the reconstruction will be carried out according
to it.

Particular hopes were connected with the "Shushi Rebirth" Fund that
was established by the Mayor of Yerevan Ervand Zakharyan in 2006. The
Fund had announced magnificent projects, however, little has been done
so far. In January 2008 the Fund organized a teleton
"Bethlehem-Yerevan-Shushi," during which an announcement was made
about donating $5.7 million for the town's rebirth. A decision was
made to use the money for the restoration of the water supply pipe,
but the project has not started until now. The representative of the
Fund in Karabakh Artur Hambardzumyan informed that the projects that
were supposed to be implemented in 2008 were postponed "for a number
of reasons." The construction of the water supply pipe will start in
the spring of this year, and the project is ready, he said.

During one of the sessions of Karabakh government Prime Minister Ara
Harutyunyan expressed his dissatisfaction in relation to the work of
the fund. "The 'Shushi Rebirth' Fund had taken up the reconstruction
of a number of buildings, where the state institutions were to be
moved. However, nothing has been done so far, and we will have to
allocate the means from the state budget," Harutyunyan said.

At the beginning of February Zakharyan visited Shushi, he also met
with the President of Nagorno Karabakh Republic Bako Sahakyan. As it
turned out, the implementation of a number of projects, the
reconstruction of Adamyan Street in particular, had been postponed
until the master plan of the city would be designed. The Fund has also
designed a project of a cable-car road, which may facilitate the
development of tourism.

The money was used to renovate the roofs of the houses on Proshyan
Street, an apartment was bought for the family of a soldier who died
in the war, the reconstruction of Shushi picture gallery was
continued, roads were repaired, and the water supply was partly
reconstructed.

Meanwhile, apparently in expectation of a miracle, real estate prices
in Shushi doubled in 2008. The price for a square meter went up to
$200 (and $817 in Stepanakert); a decade ago the price in Shushi was
about $8.

"I have been living in Shushi for 8 years now. My husband was able to
get a job here and an apartment. We have three children, and in
Stepanakert we used to live with my husband's parents in a small
apartment," 38-year-old Zoya Arakelyan says, "We moved to Shushi. We
literally started from scratch, because the apartment was half-ruined,
we had to lay the sewage and water pipes ourselves. But at that time
this was the only way out. Then my husband had to quit the job, and
now he works in Stepanakert. I was never able to find a job. There are
no enterprises and organizations here - only state institutions."

Now residential buildings in Shushi are being renovated as well. 60
apartments were provided for the officers of the Defense Army in 2008.
The housing issue in Shushi is critical despite its small population.
The thing is that after 1995, when the privatization of the housing
fund was announced, the apartments in Shushi were bought or simply
privatized by the people who do not reside in Shushi.

***************************************** ***********************************
8. SCATTERED DREAMS: RESIDENTS OF DAMAGED HOUSES IN LORI PROVINCE GET
NO HELP FROM THE GOVERNMENT

By Naira Bulghadaryan
ArmeniaNow Vanadzor reporter

The residents of the emergency-repairs status Lori province learned
that this year as well the buildings they live in would not be
reconstructed, since the government did not allocate money from the
state budget.

Though during the discussion of the 2009 state budget plan the Lori
Municipality submitted to the government a list of 10 buildings in the
province that need emergency reinforcement, the executive branch
nevertheless got around this problem again this year.

After reinforcing buildings requiring emergency repair 4 years ago,
the government has not undertaken anything else in this direction.

"There is no money in the state budget," the Head of the Urban
Development Department of Lori province Regional Administration Office
Valery Antonyan says. "The means from the state budget will be used to
address a more serious issue in the province -- solving the problems of
the people in rural areas who became homeless as a result of the 1988
earthquake."

As well as in previous years, more than 121 apartment buildings in
Lori province will remain dilapidated, while their residents hold to
hope.

According to the construction standards in Armenia, there are 4
categories of emergency repair status of the buildings: the 4th means
the building needs to be torn down; the 3rd means the building needs
reconstruction.

Antonyan says time plays its part by weakening the stability of the
building every year. And if suddenly there is an earthquake the
building has small chances to remain standing.

121 buildings in Lori province have the 3rd category emergency repair
status, and 84 of them are in Vanadzor. (Only one building was given
the 4 th category emergency repair status.)

Antonyan points out that a total of about 10 billion drams ($33
million) will be required for their reconstruction; the reinforcement
of each square meter costs 120,000-140,000 dram ($396-462).

The state budget does not have such amounts yet. In the past years the
amount necessary for the reinforcement of 3 buildings in Vanadzor was
allocated by the Lincy Foundation.

The ruined look of the 4-floor apartment building at 28 Grigor
Lousavorich Street in Vanadzor is noticeable at a far distance.

The building was constructed in the 1960s according to the so-called
Khrushyov plan, (named for Nikita Khrushyov, the leader of USSR in
1954-1963, who initiated the mass residential construction throughout
the soviet counties) After the 1988 Spitak earthquake it became an
emergency building - the bearing walls are semi-ruined.

The discolored walls and the roof without tiling make living more
unbearable when it rains or when the snow begins to melt. The entrance
and hallway of the building without doors and windows are not only
unsightly, but also dangerous.

14 families are still putting up with the conditions in the building,
as they have no alternative of moving elsewhere.

Hamest Hartenyan, 48, and her husband bought a two-room apartment 10
years ago. She recalls that at the time the building was in a better
condition, despite being a 3rd category emergency building. As years
went by, the condition got worse, particularly because of the careless
attitude of the residents.

Antonyan points out that the renovation of the 3rd category apartment
buildings is the responsibility of the state, and not of the
residents. But since the state has no funding for extensive
renovations, the conditions of the building are getting worse from
year to year.

The residents do not even take the risk of renovating their apartments
- they say it's pointless to do so.

Hartenyan's family made some light repairs when they just moved in,
but no trace of that remains today.

"What's the point of renovating, everything is ruined," the owner of
the apartment shows the walls whose plaster has come off, the pitiful
state of the bathroom that gets covered with ice in winter, the damp
bedroom.

When the rainwater and the melted snow from the broken roof flow down,
they flood not only the hallway, but the apartments as well.

"If they could only fix the roof, we don't need anything else,"
Hartenyan requests on behalf of the neighbors as well.

Her 72-year-old neighbor Siranoush Hunanyan agrees.

"Going to bed every night and waking up is like dying," the elderly
resident re-experiences the anxiety she felt when her daughter and
grandchild came to visit her. Her guests and her neighbors' guests are
afraid of visiting them, "they are asking how we can live here."

"I wish someone from abroad could repair our building," says Hunanyan,
who has no more expectations from her own government.
************************************** **************************************
9. COSTLY TROPHY: PARK RANGER FIRED AND FINED FOR KILLING BOAR ON
"PROTECTED" TERRITORY, STIRRING DEBATE ON RESERVATIONS

By Karine Ionesyan
Special to ArmeniaNow

A 75 second video showing how a ranger at Khosrov National Forest
Preserve killed a wild boar created a stir of Armenian
environmentalists and has led to the dismissal of the ranger, Gor
Hovhannisyan.

The video (which is available at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI4Nj9916HE) was shot and uploaded
online by environmentalist Mariam Sukhudyan, who was nearby when
Hovhannisyan was shooting (in the Kakavaberd district of the reserve),
in the presence of five employees of the reserve. (The incident took
place on January 22, however, the video material occurred in the
Internet after February 6, 2009).

"I published the facts because I believe that the forester should not
have done it, and I am sure that it was not Hovhannisyan's first
shot," says Sukhudyan (who says she was in the area on a hiking trip).
"I know at in the near future no one would act like him, or maybe
because if this case other cases will also be revealed."
Even though a wild boar is not included in the Red Book (of endangered
animals), as Artsrun Pepanyan, head of Public Relations Department of
the RA Ministry of Ecology stated it is forbidden to hunt this animal
according to the RA Law on Compensation Tariffs for Damages to Flora
and Fauna due to Environmental Offences. (When a wild boar is shot
outside the territory of the enclosure, the amount of fine is AMD
200,000 ($666), and within the territory of the enclosure - AMD
1,000,000 ($3,330).Besides according to the Law on Natural Areas under
Special Protection ???CHECK hunting is prohibited in the territory of
reserve.

"The head of the district (Hovhannisyan) is dismissed and fined by AMD
1,000,000 ($3,330) for killing a wild boar within the territory of the
enclosure; five employees got strict rebukes," says Pepanyan.

Still, some found that the punishment is not fair. Many believe that
the shot of the forester is just the least of the violations of
environment norms, while others say that there was needed just a cause
to dismiss Hovhannisyan and that's why the video material was also
broadcast by on Public Television ( H1 channel ).

Rouben Khachatryan, Director of the Foundation for Preservation of
Wildlife and Cultural Assets in Armenia, is not sure this case (as
fining and firing Hovhannisyan) may help settle the issue.

"I got to know Hovhannisyan as someone who does care about nature and
this stir seems to be very artificial to me," says Khachatryan. "As
for the video, I believe a real environmentalist must prevent poaching
instead of shooting (videotaping) it. And in fact, an individual case
is not that horrifying as the fact that many oligarchs, as witnesses
from neighbouring villages assure they arrive here by helicopters and
'scythe' by sub-machine guns dozens of animals (Armenian moufflon and
Bezoar goat) registered in the Red Book," says Khachatryan.

Meanwhile, the RA Ministry of Ecology says that such cases are not
registered in the enclosure, and that animals are killed only when,
for example, it is necessary to figure out whether an animal is sick
or not.

Khachatryan also separates another problem, related to Gilan Reserve,
which was created according to the decision of the RA Government made
in May 2007. According to its regulation, it is allowed to 'organize
services connected with tourism.'
(Gilan habitat is situated in the Reserve. Several families live
there. Gilan Reserve includes Bayburd district, previously belonging
to Khosrov National Forest Preserve. Bayburd, 7 km from Garni
district, is not inhabited.)

"They can implement construction works here in the name of
eco-tourism," says Khachatryan.

Eco-rights activist Gor Movsisyan says that the RA Law on Natural
Areas under Special Protection must have privilege over the regulation
of this reserve, because it is clearly mentioned there that any
activity breaking the stability of the eco-system of the reserve, is
forbidden within the territory of the reserve.

A report by the Union of Investigative Journalists of Armenia reported
last October that the territory of Gilan Reserve (118 hectares) was
leased out for 60 years; and the construction of a hotel and a cafe
started in the reserve. The right to leasing and building of the
territory was given to Hovazadzor CJSC, registered in September 2007.
Founders of the Company are Kamo Khachatryan and Mikhail Bezrukov.
Kamo Khachatryan, 40, is from Vostan village, Ararat Province.
According to the report (www.hetq.am) he has connections with Russian
governmental bodies. And as for his connections with the Armenian
governmental officials, they are rather tight - Khachatryan's son's
godfather is NA Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan, who signed decisions
granting the construction permission.

"Who builds a house?," said Aram Agasyan, head of the department for
coordination of natural areas under special protection, surprised at
the question. People were living there and we did not manage to remove
them. They used to say that they live there and want to die there,
too. That is why we made the territory a reserve, so that the process
is eased and people are able to go to their houses freely, and tourism
is developed,"

According to Aghasyan, it is not possible to control the whole
territory of Khosrov with the help of 76 rangers in the 23,000 hectare
forest.

As for the Khosrov's Kakavaberd section, it does not have a new head
yet; it is temporarily headed by the inspector of the neighboring
Garni section.
***************************************** ***********************************
10. MANAGEMENT 101: GOVERNMENT IDENTIFIES NEED FOR PROJECT MANAGERS

By Armine Grigoryan
Special to ArmeniaNow

To alleviate the consequences of the economic crisis as much as
possible, the government has initiated a program aimed at production
of goods for export.

During one of the government sessions in the last months of 2008
Armenia's Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan announced that the government
had set up operating headquarters for submitting business proposals.

Shortly afterwards, during of the January sessions in 2009, the Prime
Minister announced that a considerable number of business proposals
were submitted to the headquarters. A few have been approved by the
government, but there are no project managers to implement them.

This announcement by the Prime Minister generated considerable
feedback. Professionals who have been specializing in this sphere
within recent years are glad that there is finally a demand for
"project managers" by the government.

"In the Soviet Union's management model we did not have the concept of
projects; there was the concept of planning. After independence, they
began to understand gradually what the concept of projects is. Now,
fortunately, they have begun to understand the concept of a project
manager, and this is reassuring," the founder of the Armenian Project
Management Association (APMA) Albert Poghosyan says.

Today's Armenia faces new demands. The contemporary professions that
appeared in the 1980s, such as management, public relations, and so
on, are rapidly developing, whereas in Armenia the demand for project
managers or PR managers is just beginning to evolve.

The demands for the efficient organization of contemporary market
economy are taken into account when implementing educational reforms.
A Chair of Management was established in 1992 at the Armenian
University of Economics.

In 2002 the Chair was the first to publish a textbook on management,
which will be re-published for the third time. The university out
managers every year, leading some to wonder why the Prime Minister
announce that there are none.

The provost of the Armenian University of Economics Yuri Suvaryan
points out that to be a project manager it is not enough to have a
university degree only. It is necessary to have extensive work
experience in management and profound knowledge about the sphere.
"Only on the basis of all this will it be possible for a manager to
undertake designing and implementing a project. Theoretical knowledge
can be used, but to apply it one needs professional experience," he
says.

The 2009 budget was outlined in accordance with the principle of
project budgeting. This means that to get any kind of funding from the
budget, the projects should be submitted to the government. Only the
approved projects will be funded and implemented. The objective is to
spend the budget resources efficiently.

"During the discussion of the 2009 budget it became clear that there
is a problem with the quality and efficient implementation of the
outlined projects. It is somewhat difficult to give examples, because,
in fact, it refers to all - state and private - project designs and
the organization of their efficient implementation, and all these
issues are urgent," Head of RA Government Staff David Sargsyan says.

Gaining professional experience requires a relevant field, and the
field almost does not exist. It turns out that while plenty of
Armenians are being trained, their knowledge has been useless for
application due to the lack of opportunities. And specialists in the
field say that such knowledge becomes obsolete after four or five
years.

"Project management is the management of people. Being a good owner of
an enterprise does not mean being a good manager. If this is
understood in Armenia, it will be quite good," Poghosyan says,
comparing the Armenian economic situation to a damaged ship that
neither sinks nor moves.

"Everybody is busy draining the water from the ship to prevent it from
sinking, but the water keeps pouring in from the other side. And there
is nobody to close the holes," Poghosyan says.

Provost Suvaryan disagrees with this viewpoint. According to him, our
economy went through a profound crisis at the beginning of the 1990s,
which is not only a typical phenomenon for a country in transition,
but also the result of inefficient management.

"That was a great shock that may not have happened, but did. For
instance, how can one explain the closing down of Armenia's nuclear
power station and its re-opening that required enormous expenses, or
the closing down and re-opening of metal-molding factories? We ruined
the whole chemical industry and now we are having difficulty restoring
it. It is impossible to create a flawless market economy in a short
period of time," Suvaryan says.

Poghosyan says there are two important changes that are needed.
"First, we should think about long-term projects, for instance, for
the forthcoming 30 years. Second, older people should begin to trust
the youth. 55-60-year-old people cannot think about the future 30
years, because they have already lived most of their lives. If trust
towards younger people increases, knowledge will be updated, mentality
will change. The times when Marx's Capital was used as a guidebook
have passed. All we need is just one smart manager," he says.

The government initiative appears to be a good first step among those
who agree that the time for analyzing has past and the time for action
is at hand.

To that end, the Prime Minister's office is planning further attention
to the need. According to PM press secretary Diana Mnatsakanyan: "A
series of meetings have already been organized by the government. We
are planning to conduct training workshops and fill the gap."