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PAUL GAUBLE: "MOSCOW, YEREVAN AND TEHRAN ARE INTERESTED IN EXISTENCE OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT"
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/ politics/50200.html
Jan 21 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with famous US political scientist Paul Gauble.
- Russia and Ukraine have eventually settled differences on the gas
problem. Meanwhile, most observers consider that the gas scandal
accentuates Europe's attention on such countries as Azerbaijan. Do
you agree with it?
- The conflict between Moscow and Kiev underscored Azerbaijan's
importance in the eyes of the European Union and the United States
and therefore, Russia and Iran can take response actions, which may
worsen the state of Azerbaijani powers.
- Can Azerbaijan in these conditions use the preferences West granted
to it for facilitation of European integration in order to reduce
dependence on Russia and Iran?
- I think Azerbaijan must continue intensive development of course to
integration with both EU and NATO, not only because these organizations
are actively supporting the independence and sovereignty of Baku but
also because such course which will not necessarily lead to accession
to any of these organizations, will become an important contribution to
efforts of Azerbaijani powers in conducting a balanced external policy.
- What about neighbor Georgia, what are the real prospects of its
accession to NATO, especially considering the recent adoption of
charter on strategic partnership between Tbilisi and Washington?
- Some analysts suppose that this document is Georgia's step on the way
to NATO membership, but there are some people who consider it a booby
prize, the reflection of Washington's inability to ensure security
of its allies to include this South Caucasus into the alliance. It
is not difficult to see whose opinion is more grounded, considering
the fact that this document was adopted during Bush's administration
and will possible be reviewed by the new administration of Obama,
which has not yet defined its views regarding this region.
- It means that it would be incorrect to view the charter as guarantor
of security in the South Caucasus of at least of Georgia?
- Certainly, this document can contribute in this direction, but at
the same time it may create new problems, if Russia or Iran decide to
take immediate steps to resist this, such as, for example, supply of
military hardware to Armenia (Russian strategy) or laying a railroad
to Armenia (Iran's choice).
- By the way, what can you about information about a new illegal
large scale supplies of military hardware to Armenia? Can this fact
influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
- Supplies of arms by Russia to Armenia, especially in the said amount,
will gradually reduce pressure on Yerevan, open for changes in the
quo status and will likely lead to conflicts. I think the actions
of Moscow were a tragic mistake and Baku should focus on cooperation
with Russia on a wide range of issues.
- Might Obama's administration intensify the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict or everything will remain the same?
- I do not feel too optimistic about possible achievements in the
resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh in the nearest future. And not
only because the United States is not interested in it but also
because regional powers are represented by numerous players, including
Russia, Iran and Armenia, which win at least owing to their position,
which does not imply the resolution of the conflict, though most
representatives of these countries suggest otherwise.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/ politics/50200.html
Jan 21 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with famous US political scientist Paul Gauble.
- Russia and Ukraine have eventually settled differences on the gas
problem. Meanwhile, most observers consider that the gas scandal
accentuates Europe's attention on such countries as Azerbaijan. Do
you agree with it?
- The conflict between Moscow and Kiev underscored Azerbaijan's
importance in the eyes of the European Union and the United States
and therefore, Russia and Iran can take response actions, which may
worsen the state of Azerbaijani powers.
- Can Azerbaijan in these conditions use the preferences West granted
to it for facilitation of European integration in order to reduce
dependence on Russia and Iran?
- I think Azerbaijan must continue intensive development of course to
integration with both EU and NATO, not only because these organizations
are actively supporting the independence and sovereignty of Baku but
also because such course which will not necessarily lead to accession
to any of these organizations, will become an important contribution to
efforts of Azerbaijani powers in conducting a balanced external policy.
- What about neighbor Georgia, what are the real prospects of its
accession to NATO, especially considering the recent adoption of
charter on strategic partnership between Tbilisi and Washington?
- Some analysts suppose that this document is Georgia's step on the way
to NATO membership, but there are some people who consider it a booby
prize, the reflection of Washington's inability to ensure security
of its allies to include this South Caucasus into the alliance. It
is not difficult to see whose opinion is more grounded, considering
the fact that this document was adopted during Bush's administration
and will possible be reviewed by the new administration of Obama,
which has not yet defined its views regarding this region.
- It means that it would be incorrect to view the charter as guarantor
of security in the South Caucasus of at least of Georgia?
- Certainly, this document can contribute in this direction, but at
the same time it may create new problems, if Russia or Iran decide to
take immediate steps to resist this, such as, for example, supply of
military hardware to Armenia (Russian strategy) or laying a railroad
to Armenia (Iran's choice).
- By the way, what can you about information about a new illegal
large scale supplies of military hardware to Armenia? Can this fact
influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
- Supplies of arms by Russia to Armenia, especially in the said amount,
will gradually reduce pressure on Yerevan, open for changes in the
quo status and will likely lead to conflicts. I think the actions
of Moscow were a tragic mistake and Baku should focus on cooperation
with Russia on a wide range of issues.
- Might Obama's administration intensify the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict or everything will remain the same?
- I do not feel too optimistic about possible achievements in the
resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh in the nearest future. And not
only because the United States is not interested in it but also
because regional powers are represented by numerous players, including
Russia, Iran and Armenia, which win at least owing to their position,
which does not imply the resolution of the conflict, though most
representatives of these countries suggest otherwise.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress