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Foreign Policy
Jan 31 2009
The latest from Davos
Fri, 01/30/2009 - 5:02pm
By Ian Bremmer
OK, maybe it's a bit gloomier at Davos than I suggested in my first
installment. But that could be because I attended the "36 hours in
September" dinner and listened to the blow by blow on how it all went
wrong for the global markets. All the economists (Stephen Roach,
Nouriel Roubini, Robert Shiller), unshackled from the yoke of Wall
Street ebullience, truly embraced their inner dismal scientist. There
was plenty of blame to go around -- bankers, hedge funds, ratings
agencies, regulatory agencies -- thankfully leavened at the end by
Princeton psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who essentially said that
we're not actually that bad as people.
Also making news were the Chinese and Russian premiers, the afternoon
keynotes. That made for a very different feel for the post-mortem on
the day's sessions. Of the two, Wen Jiabao acquitted himself more
effectively; looking like a statesman, promising no recession for
China (even if it's an irrelevant formulation, the audience
appreciated it), and keeping the finger-pointing to a comparative
minimum. Putin got the quote of the day, though, offering that we
should beware state intervention in the world's economies. Former
president Clinton, not quite able to resist being goaded, said "I hope
that works out for him."
The other side of that coin is the comparative absence of the Obama
administration -- not even Larry Summers, who is a fixture here, but
apparently has an economy to fix. The economic officials keeping to
Washington have generally been seen here as responsible, but with the
importance of the meeting and the number of senior state officials
here, you have to wonder why they decided to pull National Security
Advisor Jim Jones at the last minute.
I'd have had more to say by this point, but I've been busy prepping to
chair a session on the "new great game" with the heads of state of
Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It's interesting in the context of
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab's opening missive that the
present crisis requires a holistic, global response. Because if
there's any place you're not going to see unified global leadership,
it's the Eurasia heartland. The panel runs an hour, Turkey and Armenia
don't have diplomatic relations, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the
middle of tense negotiations over the contested territory of Nagorno
Karabakh, and we've got three languages being translated
simultaneously. It's...challenging. Presuming it goes well, I'll write
about it after.
Interestingly, while I was typing, an old friend and journalist from
Turkey stopped by (easiest to blog at the little kiosks they set up
all over the place) and said that the Turkish and Armenian foreign
ministers met three times on Wednesday and that the news looks
promising. It's not a complete surprise, as the Turks used to use
Davos all the time to advance the relationship with Greece. Maybe
here's the Armenia breakthrough (especially since the Turks want to be
seen as proactive before April 24th, the genocide commemoration, so
that Obama doesn't take them on). I'm asking her to backchannel and
see what she can get.
Jan 31 2009
The latest from Davos
Fri, 01/30/2009 - 5:02pm
By Ian Bremmer
OK, maybe it's a bit gloomier at Davos than I suggested in my first
installment. But that could be because I attended the "36 hours in
September" dinner and listened to the blow by blow on how it all went
wrong for the global markets. All the economists (Stephen Roach,
Nouriel Roubini, Robert Shiller), unshackled from the yoke of Wall
Street ebullience, truly embraced their inner dismal scientist. There
was plenty of blame to go around -- bankers, hedge funds, ratings
agencies, regulatory agencies -- thankfully leavened at the end by
Princeton psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who essentially said that
we're not actually that bad as people.
Also making news were the Chinese and Russian premiers, the afternoon
keynotes. That made for a very different feel for the post-mortem on
the day's sessions. Of the two, Wen Jiabao acquitted himself more
effectively; looking like a statesman, promising no recession for
China (even if it's an irrelevant formulation, the audience
appreciated it), and keeping the finger-pointing to a comparative
minimum. Putin got the quote of the day, though, offering that we
should beware state intervention in the world's economies. Former
president Clinton, not quite able to resist being goaded, said "I hope
that works out for him."
The other side of that coin is the comparative absence of the Obama
administration -- not even Larry Summers, who is a fixture here, but
apparently has an economy to fix. The economic officials keeping to
Washington have generally been seen here as responsible, but with the
importance of the meeting and the number of senior state officials
here, you have to wonder why they decided to pull National Security
Advisor Jim Jones at the last minute.
I'd have had more to say by this point, but I've been busy prepping to
chair a session on the "new great game" with the heads of state of
Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It's interesting in the context of
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab's opening missive that the
present crisis requires a holistic, global response. Because if
there's any place you're not going to see unified global leadership,
it's the Eurasia heartland. The panel runs an hour, Turkey and Armenia
don't have diplomatic relations, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the
middle of tense negotiations over the contested territory of Nagorno
Karabakh, and we've got three languages being translated
simultaneously. It's...challenging. Presuming it goes well, I'll write
about it after.
Interestingly, while I was typing, an old friend and journalist from
Turkey stopped by (easiest to blog at the little kiosks they set up
all over the place) and said that the Turkish and Armenian foreign
ministers met three times on Wednesday and that the news looks
promising. It's not a complete surprise, as the Turks used to use
Davos all the time to advance the relationship with Greece. Maybe
here's the Armenia breakthrough (especially since the Turks want to be
seen as proactive before April 24th, the genocide commemoration, so
that Obama doesn't take them on). I'm asking her to backchannel and
see what she can get.