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Russia's Neighbors Resist Wooing And Bullying

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  • Russia's Neighbors Resist Wooing And Bullying

    RUSSIA'S NEIGHBORS RESIST WOOING AND BULLYING
    Ellen Barry

    Sarasota Herald-Tribune
    Friday, July 3, 2009 at 5:16 a.m.

    MOSCOW - This was supposed to be Russia's round in the battle over
    its backyard. All year, despite its own economic spasms, Moscow
    has earmarked great chunks of cash for its impoverished post-Soviet
    neighbors, seeking to lock in their loyalty over the long term and
    curtail Western influence in the region.

    But the neighbors seem to have other ideas. Belarus - which was
    promised $2 billion in Russian aid - is in open rebellion against the
    Kremlin, flaunting its preference for Europe while also collecting
    money from the International Monetary Fund. Uzbekistan joined Belarus
    in refusing to sign an agreement on the Collective Rapid Reaction
    Forces, an idea Moscow sees as an eventual counterweight to NATO.

    There are other examples, like Turkmenistan's May signing of a gas
    exploration deal with a German company, and Armenia's awarding of a
    major national honor to Moscow's nemesis, President Mikheil Saakashvili
    of Georgia. But the biggest came last week when Kyrgyzstan - set to
    receive $2.15 billion in Russian aid - reversed a decision that had
    been seen as a coup for Moscow, last winter's order terminating the
    American military's use of the Manas Air Base there.

    "A game of chance has developed in the post-Soviet space: Who can
    swindle the Kremlin in the coolest way?" wrote the military analyst
    Aleksandr Golts, when news of the Manas decision broke. "Such a
    brilliant result of Russia's four-year diplomatic efforts!"

    There are few projects that matter more to Russia than restoring
    its influence in the former Soviet republics, whose loss to many in
    Moscow is still as painful as a phantom limb. Competition over Georgia
    and Ukraine has brought relations between Moscow and Washington to a
    post-cold-war low, and the matter is bound to be central to the talks
    that begin on Monday between Russia's president, Dmitri A. Medvedev,
    and President Obama.

    Russia's ability to attract its neighbors to its side and keep them
    there is unimpressive. The Kremlin's methods have been reactive
    and often bullying, combining incentives like cheap energy or cash
    disbursement with threats of trade sanctions and gas cutoffs.

    The war in Georgia seems to have hurt Moscow in that regard. Rather
    than being cowed into obedience, as most Western observers feared,
    the former republics seem to have grown even more protective of
    their sovereignty. Moreover, the leaders themselves have thrived by
    playing Russia and the West and, in some cases, China off against
    one another, although that has not brought stability or prosperity
    to their countries.

    In Moscow's so-called zone of privileged interests, in other words,
    Russia is just another competitor.

    "There is no loyalty," said Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow
    at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, based in
    London. "Rivalry is the persistent dynamic. They have to play in that
    game, to compete."

    Kyrgyzstan's reversal on Manas is a case study in canny horse
    trading. Russian officials, including Mr. Medvedev, have said they
    blessed the decision, and that may be true, but President Kurmanbek
    S. Bakiyev is the one who walked away with what he wanted.

    Moscow wanted the base, a key transit hub for the United States' war
    in Afghanistan, shut down; Kyrgyzstan wanted more money. In February,
    Moscow seemed to have achieved a master stroke - at a news conference
    announcing the pledge of $2.15 billion in Russian aid, Mr. Bakiyev
    said the United States would have to leave Manas in six months.

    The first Russian payments - a $150 million emergency grant and a $300
    million low-interest loan - arrived in April, allowing Mr. Bakiyev
    to pay wages and pensions as he began his re-election campaign. Then
    Kyrgyzstan shocked the region by announcing a new agreement with the
    United States. Washington will pay more than triple the rent for the
    base - now called a "transit center" - increasing its annual payment
    to $60 million from $17.4 million, while kicking in upwards of $50
    million in grants to the government. No one knows if the Kremlin will
    make good on the rest of its pledge.

    Mr. Bakiyev "played the Russians, then he played us," said Alexander
    A. Cooley, an associate professor of political science at Barnard
    College who addressed the Manas dispute in a recent book, "Base
    Politics." "It's all about getting as much as they can."

    This should be easier for Russia, which dwarfs its Eurasian neighbors
    in both size and wealth. Russia retains a military presence in more
    than half the former Soviet countries, and huge swaths of their
    populations rely on Russian media for their news. Russia can offer
    muscular assistance in elections, as in Moldova, which has just
    received a Russian pledge of $500 million four weeks before voters
    go to the polls to elect a new Parliament.

    But Russia's strategy for consolidating support in neighboring
    capitals can hardly be called a strategy. Belarus's president,
    Aleksandr Lukashenko, who is avidly pursuing Western partners, has
    been barraged with carrots and sticks from Moscow - first promised
    $2 billion in Russian aid, then bitterly chastised for his economic
    policy, then punished with a crippling ban on the import of milk
    products, then rewarded by a reversal of the import ban. Russia
    regards Mr. Lukashenko's truculence as a bluff.

    "He is imitating a quarrel with Russia until the West demands
    serious changes from his regime, at which point, he will, of
    course, surrender," said Parliament member Konstantin F. Zatulin, a
    standard-bearer for Russia's ambitions in former Soviet space. "It's
    just his greedy line of behavior."

    But the examples extend much farther. Every post-Soviet country
    that can manage it is pursuing a "multivector policy," Mr. Zatulin
    acknowledged. Mr. Zatulin said he was not upset by these tacks away
    from Russia, but there was an edge to his answer.

    "What is the point of being disappointed?" Mr. Zatulin said. "Pride
    comes before a fall. These are weak, dependent and poor countries
    which want to attract attention to themselves - not only attention,
    but aid. I cannot criticize them for that. But there are some red
    lines that shouldn't be crossed."

    Herein lies the problem: Russia's appeal to them just does not sound
    very seductive. Ideally, it would present an attractive model for
    its neighbors, politically and economically. Young generations would
    learn Russian because they wanted to, and the post-Soviet alliances
    would be clubs its neighbors are lining up to join.

    In any case, Moscow will have to use tools other than wire transfers
    if it hopes to emerge from the financial crisis with a solid political
    bloc. As Alexei Mukhin, director of the nonprofit Center for Political
    Information, put it, "Love bought with money will not last long.

    "That is purchased love," he said. "It's not very reliable."

    All rights reserved. This copyrighted material may not be re-published
    without permission. Links are encouraged.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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