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MOCK WAR OR SERIOUS PEACE?
by Yulia Kalinina
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
July 3, 2009 Friday
Russia
Military training hints at war with Georgia
The "Kavkaz-2009" war games are under way in the south of the
country. They will continue until July 6 and comprise 8,500 people
from different branches of the military and law enforcement.
The military training is held in the N. Caucasus every year. Last
year its premise was the same as this July - anti-terrorist operations.
As it happened, last year's training preceded a war. In August its
participants fought for Tskhinval, and that was no surprise to many
military experts following the events in South Ossetia.
According to some analysts the "Kavkaz-2009" training may also precede
a war.
Troops are training, learning from the mistakes they made during the
last year's war. Then they may enter Georgia to remove Saakashvili
and install a new regime, which will give a solution to problems
which have become an impasse with the current one. These problems
exist and they are a concern to the Kremlin. The most important one
being there is no land line to connect Russia and Armenia. Georgia
has banned all military traffic over its territory, so Russia cannot
man and equip her new base in Armenia.
There is one Russian military base there - in Yerevan and Gyumri. 3000
men are stationed there. The second one was to be set up near Idjevan
in the north-east of Armenia, near Azerbaijani and Georgian border. It
was planned to move the equipment there from the former Russian base
in Akhalkalaki in Georgia. Also, building a new mid-frequency radar
station is planned.
In order for these plans to come true it is necessary for Russia to
have road connection to Armenia. That is only possible via Azerbaijan
or Georgia, there is no other way. Azerbaijan is not a possibility
because of Nagorno-Karabakh. Georgia remains. Something needs to be
done about her, as Armenia having no land connection to Russia causes
problems not only military, but also geopolitical. There some talk
already in Armenia of joining NATO, and this talk needs to be stemmed,
otherwise Russia will have to completely withdraw from Trans-Caucasus.
So there is a real reason for the second war in Georgia, no doubt
about that.
by Yulia Kalinina
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
July 3, 2009 Friday
Russia
Military training hints at war with Georgia
The "Kavkaz-2009" war games are under way in the south of the
country. They will continue until July 6 and comprise 8,500 people
from different branches of the military and law enforcement.
The military training is held in the N. Caucasus every year. Last
year its premise was the same as this July - anti-terrorist operations.
As it happened, last year's training preceded a war. In August its
participants fought for Tskhinval, and that was no surprise to many
military experts following the events in South Ossetia.
According to some analysts the "Kavkaz-2009" training may also precede
a war.
Troops are training, learning from the mistakes they made during the
last year's war. Then they may enter Georgia to remove Saakashvili
and install a new regime, which will give a solution to problems
which have become an impasse with the current one. These problems
exist and they are a concern to the Kremlin. The most important one
being there is no land line to connect Russia and Armenia. Georgia
has banned all military traffic over its territory, so Russia cannot
man and equip her new base in Armenia.
There is one Russian military base there - in Yerevan and Gyumri. 3000
men are stationed there. The second one was to be set up near Idjevan
in the north-east of Armenia, near Azerbaijani and Georgian border. It
was planned to move the equipment there from the former Russian base
in Akhalkalaki in Georgia. Also, building a new mid-frequency radar
station is planned.
In order for these plans to come true it is necessary for Russia to
have road connection to Armenia. That is only possible via Azerbaijan
or Georgia, there is no other way. Azerbaijan is not a possibility
because of Nagorno-Karabakh. Georgia remains. Something needs to be
done about her, as Armenia having no land connection to Russia causes
problems not only military, but also geopolitical. There some talk
already in Armenia of joining NATO, and this talk needs to be stemmed,
otherwise Russia will have to completely withdraw from Trans-Caucasus.
So there is a real reason for the second war in Georgia, no doubt
about that.