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RUSSIA SHOULD SHOW THAT IT REALLY WANTS ADJUSTMENT OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT: CSIS SENIOR ASSOCIATE
Trend
July 14 2009
Azerbaijan
Interview with Bulent Aliriza, Senior Associate at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Director of its
Turkey Project
Question: Recently of group of intelligence both from Armenian and
Azerbaijan payed a visit to Nagorno-Karabakh and then met with both
Azeri and Armenian presidents. How do you value such visits and do
you believe there is a space for civil society diplomacy as another
tool to adjust the conflict?
Answer: This isn't the first visit of that kind. Of course, it is
good, that such contacts happen. The question is, when there is no
adjustment on the political level, do such visits and meetings help -
that is difficult to say. Ministers of foreign affairs and presidents
are meeting, but there is no settlement yet. The danger is - how long
will the Nagorno-Karabakh interview last, when will it be settled? And
what keeps this conflict from being resolved...
Q: Nagorno-Karabakh was one of issues on Obama-Medvedev
meeting's agenda, how do you believe this meeting can influence
the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating process?Did it create any new
opportunities? How would you value the meeting on the whole?
A: It is clear that U.S. and Russia both want their relations to
become better. There a number of issues they did agreed to reduce
their nations' nuclear arsenals. Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev
have signed a "joint understanding" to reduce their countries'
nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them by up to a third of
current levels. Secondly, but not less important, they have also
discussed Afghanistan issue. And yes, they of course touched upon
the unresolved conflicts - Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. The question in which sides are still not having joint
opinion - is Georgia. The thing is Russia is still opposing Georgia
and also Ukraine in terms of integrating into NATO, and there are a
number of other issues. We are still very far from saying that Russia
and USA have agreed on everything and there are no more disputes - then
it would be ideal, but this isn't the case now.Coming to your question
on Nagorno-Karabakh, yes, this issue was also discussed.Of course,
it is good that this conflict is being discussed on such level. But
I think Russia should show that it really wants the adjustment of
the conflict on Karabakh. You know, the thing is everybody talk from
year to year that they want to solve the conflict and so on, but we
are still there - the conflict is still not resolved.
Q: U.S., Russian and French presidents today distributed a statement
in Italy at the G8 summit concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. What does it
mean for the future negotiation process?
A: Well, this wasn't actually the issue on summit's agenda. The
G8 presindets spoke much more on the issue of the climate change,
situation in Africa, financial crisis and ways out of it, etc. there
was a statement on Nagorno-Karabakh by the Minsk Group countries
presidents, well, there was also a statement on the situation in
Iran. I think that the institute of the Minsk Group had been very
active so far, and they had done a lot of work. It is good there
is optimism, and it has to lead somewhere. But so far I wouldn't
overvalue the meaningof this statementat the G8 summit for the
negotiation process.
Trend
July 14 2009
Azerbaijan
Interview with Bulent Aliriza, Senior Associate at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Director of its
Turkey Project
Question: Recently of group of intelligence both from Armenian and
Azerbaijan payed a visit to Nagorno-Karabakh and then met with both
Azeri and Armenian presidents. How do you value such visits and do
you believe there is a space for civil society diplomacy as another
tool to adjust the conflict?
Answer: This isn't the first visit of that kind. Of course, it is
good, that such contacts happen. The question is, when there is no
adjustment on the political level, do such visits and meetings help -
that is difficult to say. Ministers of foreign affairs and presidents
are meeting, but there is no settlement yet. The danger is - how long
will the Nagorno-Karabakh interview last, when will it be settled? And
what keeps this conflict from being resolved...
Q: Nagorno-Karabakh was one of issues on Obama-Medvedev
meeting's agenda, how do you believe this meeting can influence
the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating process?Did it create any new
opportunities? How would you value the meeting on the whole?
A: It is clear that U.S. and Russia both want their relations to
become better. There a number of issues they did agreed to reduce
their nations' nuclear arsenals. Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev
have signed a "joint understanding" to reduce their countries'
nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them by up to a third of
current levels. Secondly, but not less important, they have also
discussed Afghanistan issue. And yes, they of course touched upon
the unresolved conflicts - Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. The question in which sides are still not having joint
opinion - is Georgia. The thing is Russia is still opposing Georgia
and also Ukraine in terms of integrating into NATO, and there are a
number of other issues. We are still very far from saying that Russia
and USA have agreed on everything and there are no more disputes - then
it would be ideal, but this isn't the case now.Coming to your question
on Nagorno-Karabakh, yes, this issue was also discussed.Of course,
it is good that this conflict is being discussed on such level. But
I think Russia should show that it really wants the adjustment of
the conflict on Karabakh. You know, the thing is everybody talk from
year to year that they want to solve the conflict and so on, but we
are still there - the conflict is still not resolved.
Q: U.S., Russian and French presidents today distributed a statement
in Italy at the G8 summit concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. What does it
mean for the future negotiation process?
A: Well, this wasn't actually the issue on summit's agenda. The
G8 presindets spoke much more on the issue of the climate change,
situation in Africa, financial crisis and ways out of it, etc. there
was a statement on Nagorno-Karabakh by the Minsk Group countries
presidents, well, there was also a statement on the situation in
Iran. I think that the institute of the Minsk Group had been very
active so far, and they had done a lot of work. It is good there
is optimism, and it has to lead somewhere. But so far I wouldn't
overvalue the meaningof this statementat the G8 summit for the
negotiation process.