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Economist: Turkish Foreign Policy: Dreams From Their Fathers

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  • Economist: Turkish Foreign Policy: Dreams From Their Fathers

    TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY: DREAMS FROM THEIR FATHERS

    Economist
    http://www.economist.com/world/ europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14098427
    July 23 2009

    Turkey's canny foreign minister seeks to pursue delicate diplomacy
    all around

    WHEN the official result of Iran's contested presidential election
    was announced last month, Turkey was one of the first countries to
    congratulate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Set against the repression (and
    deaths) of Iranian protesters in the streets, this raised eyebrows
    in Europe and America. It even provoked the tired old question of
    whether Turkey may be turning its back on the West.

    "People see only one side of this story," complains Ahmet Davutoglu,
    Turkey's foreign minister, in an interview. He does not elaborate. But
    Turkey's friendship with the Islamic republic has also proved useful to
    the West. Its behind-the-scenes mediation was instrumental in securing
    the recent release of British embassy staff in Tehran. And it can
    play both ways. Five Iranian diplomats detained by the Americans in
    Iraq in 2007 were freed earlier this month at Turkey's urging.

    The ease with which Turkey juggles different worlds, be they Arab or
    Jewish, Muslim or European, prompted Hillary Clinton to call it an
    "emerging global power". Its strong relations with Israel matter to
    both countries, as became clear when they cooled during the invasion
    of Gaza in January. The Turks have just had a high-profile spat with
    China over its treatment of Xinjiang's Uighurs, whom they regard
    as kinsmen. It was understandable that one of Barack Obama's first
    presidential visits to a foreign country was to Turkey.

    Some credit is due to Mr Davutoglu, who was a foreign-policy adviser
    to the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for seven years before
    becoming foreign minister in May. This spry former academic is seen as
    the architect of Turkey's soft power, which blends realpolitik with
    a fierce pride. A pious Muslim with a moralistic bent, Mr Davutoglu
    has been among the most influential foreign ministers in the history
    of the Turkish republic.

    His approach rests on two pillars. One is to have "zero problems"
    with the neighbours, many of them troubled or troublesome. The other
    is "strategic depth". This calls for a Turkish zone of political,
    economic and cultural influence, primarily among neighbours (many
    of them former Ottoman dominions) in the Balkans, the south Caucasus
    and the Middle East.

    None of this detracts from Turkey's determination to join the
    European Union. Rather, it enhances its appeal as a member, says Mr
    Davutoglu. He seems unfazed by the hostile noises from France and
    Germany. Both Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are lobbying for a
    "privileged partnership" instead of full membership for Turkey. Mr
    Davutoglu suggests that they are merely playing to their respective
    electorates. "Instead of complaining, of being angry, we should work
    together," he says. For Turkey that means reviving the flagging reform
    process that won it the opening of EU membership talks in 2005. Mr
    Davutoglu is hopeful, for example, that the Greek Orthodox seminary
    on the island of Halki off Istanbul will soon be reopened.

    But EU diplomats say none of this will let Turkey off the hook over
    Cyprus. Mr Davutoglu agrees that decades-old peace talks between
    Turkish- and Greek-Cypriot leaders should not be open-ended. A
    deal really needs to be struck by the end of this year. For that to
    happen the EU and America must tell the Greek-Cypriots to get serious
    (though, as EU members already, they have little incentive to help). A
    settlement would avert the possible train wreck in Turkey's relations
    with the EU that might otherwise come in December. In theory Turkey
    has until then to open air- and seaports to the Greek-Cypriots, but it
    refuses to do this until EU trade restrictions on Turkish-controlled
    north Cyprus are lifted.

    Might France and Turkey's other enemies use this as an excuse
    to freeze the EU membership talks altogether (eight chapters have
    already been suspended)? Turkish leaders like to believe that Europe
    needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe. It has become even more
    crucial as a potential transit route for Europe-bound natural gas
    from energy-rich Azerbaijan and Central Asia, as well as from Iraq
    (and eventually Iran). Mr Davutoglu points proudly to the recent
    signing of an agreement between Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary
    and Austria on the Nabucco pipeline that is meant to carry gas through
    these countries, reducing Europe's dependence on Russia.

    Yet some say that Turkey is overplaying its hand. Its energy dreams are
    tightly linked to its ethnic cousins in Azerbaijan. Relations between
    these Turkic allies took a dive in April when Turkey unveiled a draft
    agreement to establish diplomatic ties and reopen its border with
    Armenia. In a dramatic shift, Turkey even dropped its long-running
    precondition that Armenia must withdraw from the territories that it
    occupied in the 1990s after its war with Azerbaijan over the mainly
    Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    An infuriated Azerbaijan promptly threatened to turn to Russia. In
    June it signed a deal to sell gas to the Russians from 2010
    onwards. So Turkey did another volte-face. Mr Erdogan declared that
    friendship with Armenia was no longer possible unless it withdrew
    from Nagorno-Karabakh. Mr Davutoglu insists that Turkey wants peace
    with Armenia. But one Western diplomat says that "rapprochement with
    Armenia is on its last legs."

    This has raised the spectre of a row with Turkey's most powerful ally,
    America. Armenian-Americans want Mr Obama to honour his election
    pledge to insist that the massacre by Ottoman forces of more than a
    million of their ancestors in 1915 was genocide. In a fudge in April
    Mr Obama said that he had not changed his views on the matter; yet he
    spoke only of the Medz Yeghern ("great calamity" in Armenian). He did
    not want to torpedo Turkish-Armenian rapprochement by using the G-word.

    Turkey's strategic location had once again proven decisive. As
    American forces withdraw from Iraq, Turkey is seeking to avert a
    looming conflict between the Arabs and the Kurds, especially over the
    disputed city of Kirkuk. Turkey urged Iraq's Sunnis not to boycott
    elections in 2005. Mr Davutoglu is again lobbying to ensure that
    all Iraqi groups take part in the parliamentary election in January
    2010. "We have excellent relations with the United States at every
    level," he says. And, notes a Western official, "when it comes to
    Turkey and Armenia, Turkey wins every time."
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