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OSCE LIVES WITH A 'FROZEN CONFLICT' OF KARABAKH: EXPERT
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politics /54148.html
July 27 2009
Azerbaijan
Editor of the on-line journal of world politics "Transnational
Perspectives", former professor and Director of Research at the
Graduate Institute of Development Studies in Geneva Rene Wadlow spoke
in an exclusive interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: Given the latest meeting on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, along with the
president of Russia, many claim that these meetings were constructive
and positive. Do you believe that the conflict could be solved by
the end of 2009?
Rene Wadlow: It is difficult to analyze the progress. In such
long-drawn out negotiations, it is often what is not said, what demands
are not repeated that is more important than what is said. I have
always been optimistic about the possibility of positive compromises
concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and disappointed by the difficulties of
finding common ground.
Q: Do you think that the conflict could be solved by military ways?
A: My conclusion is that everyone has learned to live with a 'frozen
conflict'. There is certainly no military action that can be useful. We
saw that an effort to change a 'frozen conflict' by military means in
South Osetia has made the situation worse and has increased general
tensions in the area. Obviously, the fact that there are military in
the world colors what can be done, but wisdom requires not having to
use them.
Q: There was an opinion that the OSCE group doesn't really have much
impact on the Karabakh conflict, and if this continues, Baku's position
on the conflict could change. How can you comment on that?
A: I think that the efforts of the OSCE are well intended, but at
least as far as the public record, not much has been achieved. In all
negotiations, there is a lot that goes on which is not part of the
public record, and so it is always difficult to judge. Personally, I
think that the OSCE relies too much on former ambassadors and others
who come from government civil service and not enough from civil
society willing to think in a different style. However, at this stage,
it is useful to keep the OSCE involved.
Q: Is it possible for the European Union to take part in resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? How could it be useful for the
conflict itself?
A: I do not think that the EU as a secretariat can do more than
the OSCE does. It is basically the same countries and the same
type of personnel. It might be useful to involve the European
Parliament. Since the recent elections, there are new members who
might be helpful. But, basically, I think that the core of the OSCE
lives with a 'frozen conflict' and nothing is pushing them to more
activity, though perhaps Turkey seems to want to play a more active
regional role. Perhaps, outside the OSCE but part of the region,
Iran might want to do something positive to get people thinking of
something other than its contested election and its nuclear program.
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politics /54148.html
July 27 2009
Azerbaijan
Editor of the on-line journal of world politics "Transnational
Perspectives", former professor and Director of Research at the
Graduate Institute of Development Studies in Geneva Rene Wadlow spoke
in an exclusive interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: Given the latest meeting on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, along with the
president of Russia, many claim that these meetings were constructive
and positive. Do you believe that the conflict could be solved by
the end of 2009?
Rene Wadlow: It is difficult to analyze the progress. In such
long-drawn out negotiations, it is often what is not said, what demands
are not repeated that is more important than what is said. I have
always been optimistic about the possibility of positive compromises
concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and disappointed by the difficulties of
finding common ground.
Q: Do you think that the conflict could be solved by military ways?
A: My conclusion is that everyone has learned to live with a 'frozen
conflict'. There is certainly no military action that can be useful. We
saw that an effort to change a 'frozen conflict' by military means in
South Osetia has made the situation worse and has increased general
tensions in the area. Obviously, the fact that there are military in
the world colors what can be done, but wisdom requires not having to
use them.
Q: There was an opinion that the OSCE group doesn't really have much
impact on the Karabakh conflict, and if this continues, Baku's position
on the conflict could change. How can you comment on that?
A: I think that the efforts of the OSCE are well intended, but at
least as far as the public record, not much has been achieved. In all
negotiations, there is a lot that goes on which is not part of the
public record, and so it is always difficult to judge. Personally, I
think that the OSCE relies too much on former ambassadors and others
who come from government civil service and not enough from civil
society willing to think in a different style. However, at this stage,
it is useful to keep the OSCE involved.
Q: Is it possible for the European Union to take part in resolution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? How could it be useful for the
conflict itself?
A: I do not think that the EU as a secretariat can do more than
the OSCE does. It is basically the same countries and the same
type of personnel. It might be useful to involve the European
Parliament. Since the recent elections, there are new members who
might be helpful. But, basically, I think that the core of the OSCE
lives with a 'frozen conflict' and nothing is pushing them to more
activity, though perhaps Turkey seems to want to play a more active
regional role. Perhaps, outside the OSCE but part of the region,
Iran might want to do something positive to get people thinking of
something other than its contested election and its nuclear program.