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PRESIDENTS AGREED ON HAVING ANOTHER MEETING
Panorama.am
19:11 05/06/2009
Yesterday the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and
Ilham Aliev had a meeting in "Baltic Star" hotel, St. Petersburg. That
was the fifth meeting the Presidents were having within a year. It's
remarkable that the first meeting, the Presidents had, was again held
in St. Petersburg a year ago in the frameworks of the International
Economic Forum. So, the Presidents met in the same place by the
same agenda.
No breakthrough
"The meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan was conducted
in a constructive manner. The parties reached agreement to move
forward the negotiation process. The Foreign Ministers of the two
countries were instructed to continue to work with the assistance of
the OSCE Co-Chairs toward the synchronization the parties' positions
and arrangement of the next meeting between the Presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan," says the official press release spread by the Armenian
President's Cabinet.
As soon as the meeting was over the Foreign Ministers of Armenia
and Azerbaijan gave comments over the meeting. Armenian FM Edward
Nalbandyan has particularly emphasized: "Though it is impossible to
speak about a breakthrough the parties move forward and have agreed
on continuing the negotiations." The Azeri FM's Elmar Mammediarov's
statement this time has some constructive elements. "The most important
thing is that the parties have agreed on the need of advancing," he
said. The Azeri FM has also stressed that no breakthrough happened but
added that some advancement has been made. Remember, that two weeks ago
the very same official has been claiming that there was no advancement
in the negotiations with Armenia. Let's hope that Mammediarov will
not forget his statement when there is no Armenian official nearby.
To conclude, we can guess that no breakthrough happened,
but the parties are ready to continue the processes to pull
the dispositions closer. Note that before the meeting we
have already predicted that there won't be any breakthrough
(http://www.panorama.am/am/comments/2 009/06/03/peterburg/) and we
have also spoken about those reasons which make the resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict impossible in this period. So we can
say that our previsions correspond to the reality.
Why is the breakthrough impossible?
It's clear that both, the parties and the mediators understand
agreement over a definite solution when saying breakthrough. Hence,
when it is said there has been no breakthrough means that no agreement
has been made over a definite solution, and that it is impossible
in this period. We have already given our comments in this respect,
but let's repeat briefly.
First the parties, or at least one of them, are not ready to come
to a definite solution. It means that there are no possibilities to
come to an agreement by own initiative. Taking into account that
one of the parties - Azerbaijan shows uncompromising disposition,
makes military oriented statements, blames the Armenian party in being
deconstructive and the co-chairs in having pro-Armenian positions, the
only one to feel guilty in recording no breakthrough is the official
Baku. This does not mean that the Armenian party has expressed obvious
preparedness to make compromises. The Armenian party has presented
three principles and readiness to negotiate.
We have also mentioned that the joint pressure by the co-chairs could
be a way out. This means the parties will be highly recommended to
come to a conclusion.
It would be better to negotiate, than...
In the context of St. Petersburg meeting another element, we guess,
has principle notion in the resolution of Artsakh conflict.
As we have already mentioned the Azeri FM Elmar Mammediarov
opposing his previous statements emphasized that there has been
some advancement and that the negotiations with the Armenian party
would be continued. And the significance of St. Petersburg meeting,
in fact, is the current statement which is the evidence of changing
Azeri disposition. Such things do not happen by chance. We think that
Baku avoided taking the responsibility of ruining the negotiations.
We have been reporting earlier that Azerbaijan takes part in the
negotiations based on the co-chairs' recommendations just to guarantee
their participation. In the reality they were intended to frustrate
the process by using "Nabucco" card to make the co-chairs' countries
to press on Armenian party due to their energetic and geo-political
interests.
It was not by chance that a day before St. Petersburg meeting Azeri
minister of industry and energy made crucial critics of the current
project. But this strategy was too simple.
Azerbaijan has been simply advised not to hope on some other factors,
not to falsify the conflict. In this respect Turkey's position was
also important for Azerbaijan. It was obvious that they have been
trying to include Turkey in the process and to make parallels with
Armenian-Turkish and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But the co-chairs
have put them clear that those two different issues should not be put
together. The French co-chair Bernard Fassier himself paid a visit
to Turkey to advise Ankara to avoid any participation. It turns out
that a day before the St. Petersburg meeting the Turkish have also
understood the situation. The Turkish FM Ahmed Davutoglu announced
in Washington that the parties hopefully could make an advancement
themselves trying not to make parallels with the Armenian-Turkish
relations and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
To conclude, Turkey washed his hands of. In this case Baku could
not claim that the Armenian party is not constructive and that the
co-chairs have partial approaches. They did not want to ruin the
process and feel responsible for that. To avoid it, Elmar Mammediarov
stood next to Edward Nalbandyan and announced that they agreed with
the Armenian party to continue the negotiations.
In any case, the negotiations and discussions are better than war
and military oriented statements.
Panorama.am
19:11 05/06/2009
Yesterday the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and
Ilham Aliev had a meeting in "Baltic Star" hotel, St. Petersburg. That
was the fifth meeting the Presidents were having within a year. It's
remarkable that the first meeting, the Presidents had, was again held
in St. Petersburg a year ago in the frameworks of the International
Economic Forum. So, the Presidents met in the same place by the
same agenda.
No breakthrough
"The meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan was conducted
in a constructive manner. The parties reached agreement to move
forward the negotiation process. The Foreign Ministers of the two
countries were instructed to continue to work with the assistance of
the OSCE Co-Chairs toward the synchronization the parties' positions
and arrangement of the next meeting between the Presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan," says the official press release spread by the Armenian
President's Cabinet.
As soon as the meeting was over the Foreign Ministers of Armenia
and Azerbaijan gave comments over the meeting. Armenian FM Edward
Nalbandyan has particularly emphasized: "Though it is impossible to
speak about a breakthrough the parties move forward and have agreed
on continuing the negotiations." The Azeri FM's Elmar Mammediarov's
statement this time has some constructive elements. "The most important
thing is that the parties have agreed on the need of advancing," he
said. The Azeri FM has also stressed that no breakthrough happened but
added that some advancement has been made. Remember, that two weeks ago
the very same official has been claiming that there was no advancement
in the negotiations with Armenia. Let's hope that Mammediarov will
not forget his statement when there is no Armenian official nearby.
To conclude, we can guess that no breakthrough happened,
but the parties are ready to continue the processes to pull
the dispositions closer. Note that before the meeting we
have already predicted that there won't be any breakthrough
(http://www.panorama.am/am/comments/2 009/06/03/peterburg/) and we
have also spoken about those reasons which make the resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict impossible in this period. So we can
say that our previsions correspond to the reality.
Why is the breakthrough impossible?
It's clear that both, the parties and the mediators understand
agreement over a definite solution when saying breakthrough. Hence,
when it is said there has been no breakthrough means that no agreement
has been made over a definite solution, and that it is impossible
in this period. We have already given our comments in this respect,
but let's repeat briefly.
First the parties, or at least one of them, are not ready to come
to a definite solution. It means that there are no possibilities to
come to an agreement by own initiative. Taking into account that
one of the parties - Azerbaijan shows uncompromising disposition,
makes military oriented statements, blames the Armenian party in being
deconstructive and the co-chairs in having pro-Armenian positions, the
only one to feel guilty in recording no breakthrough is the official
Baku. This does not mean that the Armenian party has expressed obvious
preparedness to make compromises. The Armenian party has presented
three principles and readiness to negotiate.
We have also mentioned that the joint pressure by the co-chairs could
be a way out. This means the parties will be highly recommended to
come to a conclusion.
It would be better to negotiate, than...
In the context of St. Petersburg meeting another element, we guess,
has principle notion in the resolution of Artsakh conflict.
As we have already mentioned the Azeri FM Elmar Mammediarov
opposing his previous statements emphasized that there has been
some advancement and that the negotiations with the Armenian party
would be continued. And the significance of St. Petersburg meeting,
in fact, is the current statement which is the evidence of changing
Azeri disposition. Such things do not happen by chance. We think that
Baku avoided taking the responsibility of ruining the negotiations.
We have been reporting earlier that Azerbaijan takes part in the
negotiations based on the co-chairs' recommendations just to guarantee
their participation. In the reality they were intended to frustrate
the process by using "Nabucco" card to make the co-chairs' countries
to press on Armenian party due to their energetic and geo-political
interests.
It was not by chance that a day before St. Petersburg meeting Azeri
minister of industry and energy made crucial critics of the current
project. But this strategy was too simple.
Azerbaijan has been simply advised not to hope on some other factors,
not to falsify the conflict. In this respect Turkey's position was
also important for Azerbaijan. It was obvious that they have been
trying to include Turkey in the process and to make parallels with
Armenian-Turkish and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But the co-chairs
have put them clear that those two different issues should not be put
together. The French co-chair Bernard Fassier himself paid a visit
to Turkey to advise Ankara to avoid any participation. It turns out
that a day before the St. Petersburg meeting the Turkish have also
understood the situation. The Turkish FM Ahmed Davutoglu announced
in Washington that the parties hopefully could make an advancement
themselves trying not to make parallels with the Armenian-Turkish
relations and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
To conclude, Turkey washed his hands of. In this case Baku could
not claim that the Armenian party is not constructive and that the
co-chairs have partial approaches. They did not want to ruin the
process and feel responsible for that. To avoid it, Elmar Mammediarov
stood next to Edward Nalbandyan and announced that they agreed with
the Armenian party to continue the negotiations.
In any case, the negotiations and discussions are better than war
and military oriented statements.