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WPS Agency, Russia
Defense & Security
June 5 2009
BLACKMAIL OR PREPARATION FOR A WAR?
by Andrei Korbut
LACK OF STABILITY FOMENTED BY GEORGIAN ACTIONS AGAINST ABKHAZIA AND
SOUTH OSSETIA MIGHT AGGRAVATE THE PROBLEM OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH; A war
between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is judged
unlikely.
"Continued occupation of the Azerbaijani territories by Armenia
escalates tension in the region. It makes peaceful settlement of the
conflict impossible and increases the probability of a military
solution to the Karabakh conflict," Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar
Abiyev said. Abiyev urged European countries and chairmen of the OSCE
Minsk Group to apply pressure to Armenia.
It will be wrong to assume that Azerbaijan is about to start war
preparations in order to attack Armenia and self-defense forces of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku retains the hope for a peaceful
settlement. Speaking on the Republic Day on May 28, President Ilham
Aliyev announced that peace talks were even more intensive
nowadays. "As always, the position of Azerbaijan is constructive and
fair. It is based on international law. Return of the occupied lands
to Azerbaijan and return of the displaced persons to their homes is on
the agenda. Nagorno-Karabakh is not a sovereign state. Neither will it
be sovereign in a decade or in a century," he said. Aliyev pinned the
blame for the absence of progress in conflict settlement on Armenia
which he said was stalling for time.
The Armenian military confirmed validity of the Azerbaijani
president's words. Colonel General Gurgen Dalibatajan, advisor to the
defense minister of Armenia, said that the status quo was not going to
be altered. "Personally I will object to the return of the
territories," he said. "No military will ever want to return
territories. We occupy nothing. We liberated our own lands."
Dalibatajan said no return of the lands was possible without a
political decision. "I do not think that any president will go for a
compromise. It will be tantamount to a suicide for us, for the
military."
Baku knows this opinion of the Armenian military, hence Abiyev's
aggressive rhetorics. Aliyev himself said that his country wanted a
peaceful solution to the problem but admitted that "other options"
were considered too.
It was an indirect admission from the national leader himself that
Azerbaijan at least allowed for the possibility of a military
solution.
That Azerbaijan gears its Armed Forces for a war is common
knowledge. Defense expenses go up. Skirmishes and clashes on the front
in the meantime continue. According to the Armenian media, "... 580
shots were fired from Azerbaijan and 116 from Karabakh in 2006, 1,445
and 431 in 2007, 3,480 and 728 in 2008, and 1,098 and 186 in 2009."
The tendency is clear.
"That Azerbaijan is ready for a war is a fact. There is, however, a
question: what if it is defeated?" said Samvel Babajan, ex-Defense
Minister and former commander of the Defense Army of
Nagorno-Karabakh. "Should Azerbaijan decide to go for it and fail to
win the war, Baku will have to forget about any talks with Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh forever. I'd say they understand it in Baku."
What about Russia and its interests? What will it do in a war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan? On the one hand, Moscow is supposed to assist
Armenia, its ally and member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization. On the other, it is supposed to remain neutral as a
participant in the peace process and Baku's strategic partner. Moscow
will probably try and remain neutral and strive for peaceful methods
of dealing with problems. Its participation in the conflict is only
possible if Turkey becomes directly involved in the war which is
unlikely.
Ankara and Moscow know that even a fragile peace is always better than
wars and deaths. This is why Russia and other countries will keep
striving for a peaceful solution to the problem of Karabakh. Even
peacekeepers might be deployed in the conflict area, and Russia will
certainly insist on having its own contingent there. In a word, a
major war in the southern part of the Caucasus is
unlikely. Azerbaijani aggressive rhetoric is simply blackmail, a
device needed to secure more active participation of the international
community in the Karabakh talks.
Source: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 21, June 3 - 9, 2009, p. 2
Translated by Aleksei Ignatkin
Defense & Security
June 5 2009
BLACKMAIL OR PREPARATION FOR A WAR?
by Andrei Korbut
LACK OF STABILITY FOMENTED BY GEORGIAN ACTIONS AGAINST ABKHAZIA AND
SOUTH OSSETIA MIGHT AGGRAVATE THE PROBLEM OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH; A war
between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is judged
unlikely.
"Continued occupation of the Azerbaijani territories by Armenia
escalates tension in the region. It makes peaceful settlement of the
conflict impossible and increases the probability of a military
solution to the Karabakh conflict," Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar
Abiyev said. Abiyev urged European countries and chairmen of the OSCE
Minsk Group to apply pressure to Armenia.
It will be wrong to assume that Azerbaijan is about to start war
preparations in order to attack Armenia and self-defense forces of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku retains the hope for a peaceful
settlement. Speaking on the Republic Day on May 28, President Ilham
Aliyev announced that peace talks were even more intensive
nowadays. "As always, the position of Azerbaijan is constructive and
fair. It is based on international law. Return of the occupied lands
to Azerbaijan and return of the displaced persons to their homes is on
the agenda. Nagorno-Karabakh is not a sovereign state. Neither will it
be sovereign in a decade or in a century," he said. Aliyev pinned the
blame for the absence of progress in conflict settlement on Armenia
which he said was stalling for time.
The Armenian military confirmed validity of the Azerbaijani
president's words. Colonel General Gurgen Dalibatajan, advisor to the
defense minister of Armenia, said that the status quo was not going to
be altered. "Personally I will object to the return of the
territories," he said. "No military will ever want to return
territories. We occupy nothing. We liberated our own lands."
Dalibatajan said no return of the lands was possible without a
political decision. "I do not think that any president will go for a
compromise. It will be tantamount to a suicide for us, for the
military."
Baku knows this opinion of the Armenian military, hence Abiyev's
aggressive rhetorics. Aliyev himself said that his country wanted a
peaceful solution to the problem but admitted that "other options"
were considered too.
It was an indirect admission from the national leader himself that
Azerbaijan at least allowed for the possibility of a military
solution.
That Azerbaijan gears its Armed Forces for a war is common
knowledge. Defense expenses go up. Skirmishes and clashes on the front
in the meantime continue. According to the Armenian media, "... 580
shots were fired from Azerbaijan and 116 from Karabakh in 2006, 1,445
and 431 in 2007, 3,480 and 728 in 2008, and 1,098 and 186 in 2009."
The tendency is clear.
"That Azerbaijan is ready for a war is a fact. There is, however, a
question: what if it is defeated?" said Samvel Babajan, ex-Defense
Minister and former commander of the Defense Army of
Nagorno-Karabakh. "Should Azerbaijan decide to go for it and fail to
win the war, Baku will have to forget about any talks with Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh forever. I'd say they understand it in Baku."
What about Russia and its interests? What will it do in a war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan? On the one hand, Moscow is supposed to assist
Armenia, its ally and member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization. On the other, it is supposed to remain neutral as a
participant in the peace process and Baku's strategic partner. Moscow
will probably try and remain neutral and strive for peaceful methods
of dealing with problems. Its participation in the conflict is only
possible if Turkey becomes directly involved in the war which is
unlikely.
Ankara and Moscow know that even a fragile peace is always better than
wars and deaths. This is why Russia and other countries will keep
striving for a peaceful solution to the problem of Karabakh. Even
peacekeepers might be deployed in the conflict area, and Russia will
certainly insist on having its own contingent there. In a word, a
major war in the southern part of the Caucasus is
unlikely. Azerbaijani aggressive rhetoric is simply blackmail, a
device needed to secure more active participation of the international
community in the Karabakh talks.
Source: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 21, June 3 - 9, 2009, p. 2
Translated by Aleksei Ignatkin