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LEBANESE VOTERS PREVENT HIZBOLLAH TAKEOVER
By Robert Fisk
AZG Armenian Daily
13/06/2009
Lebanon
Government of 'national salvation' set to rule after pro-Western Saad
Hariri fails to claim decisive victory
There will be no Islamic Republic of Lebanon. Nor will there be a
pro-Western Lebanese republic. There will, after yesterday's vote - for
the Hizbollah-Christian coalition and for the secular Sunni-Christian
alliance - be a government of "national salvation" in Beirut, run by
an ex-army general-president with ever-increasing powers.
Washington would have preferred that Saad Hariri, son of the
assassinated ex-prime minister, came out with a clear win. But out
of the shadows will come the same crippled, un-healable Lebanon;
delightful, unworkable, poor old Lebanon, corrupt, beautiful,
vanity-prone, intelligent, democratic - yes, definitely, democratic -
and absolutely outside our powers to reform.
The electoral system - a crazed mixture of sectarianism, proportional
representation and "list" fixing - means that no one ever really "wins"
elections in Lebanon, and yesterday was no different. The "anti-Syrian"
parties - the Sunnis, the Druze, half of the Christian community -
made sure that their votes prevented a Hizbollah takeover, while the
huge Shia vote - for Hizbollah and the Amal party and the Christians
who follow the lead of the raving Christian ex-general20Michael Aoun
- made certain there would be no clear win for America's friends in
the country.
But the president, who under Lebanon's unwritten constitution must be
a Christian Maronite, will be able to fashion some kind of "central
bloc" by midday today - or so all Lebanon hopes - which will include
Hizbollah, the forces of anti-Syrian Sunni Islam, the Druze and even
the Christians. The latter, always their own worst enemies in Lebanon,
albeit a minority, will ironically be more powerful than ever because
their president is one of them.
Lebanon deployed up to 60,000 troops and armed police to control the
ballot boxes and, to their considerable credit, not a single gun-battle
appears to have broken out. Given the personal nature of some of the
contests - this is a highly tribal society whatever the modernity
of Beirut and its suburbs - this was quite an achievement. Driving
around the capital, I found only good-natured checkpoints, handing me
papers of candidates' names for whom I should vote, both Christians
and Muslims, in the same list. If they wore blue hats, they were
for Hariri. If they wore yellow hats - and there were conservative
Shia Muslim women without scarves - they were for Hizbollah. If they
dressed in orange, they were trying to win votes for Aoun.
The Lebanese, a very shrewd people, have been reading the foreign
press and listening to the=2 0BBC, Al-Jazeera, even Fox News. They
knew that for foreigners - the ajnabi - there was only one story:
Lebanon becomes a finger of Iran or Syria - or it remains in America's
hands. More dangerously, the Israelis would be able to claim it was
a "terrorist" state if Hizbollah won. But then the Israelis would
claim it was a "terrorist" state if even one minister was a member
of Hizbollah. They will have their way.
By last night, it looked as if the spread of parties would win a
share of the vote equal to their numbers; that the Shia Muslims would
have the largest group of MPs but without a majority, thus allowing
Lebanon's power-sharing system to settle back into its old ways. Why
should we worry? Yes, it is corrupt. Tens of thousands of Lebanese
flew home to vote - you can't vote abroad in Lebanese elections -
so who paid their fare? Who has $30m to spend on air fares?
To be a modern state, Lebanon must de-confessionalise. Its president -
currently the ex-general Michel Sleiman - should be elected on merit
rather than religion. Its prime minister, who must be a Sunni Muslim,
should be elected on merit. But the moment you take away these
privileges, Lebanon will cease to be Lebanon - because its very
identity is sectarian.
Lebanon is a tiny country, just over 4,000 square miles in size,
and it is very definitely Muslim (60 per cent of i ts four million
population are Muslim), but it has 18 religious sects which include
the descendants of the poor Armenian Christians who, naked and beaten,
dragged themselves here after their genocide at the hands of the
Turks in 1915. The Assyrians came this way. So did the Persians,
Romans, Crusaders, Mamlukes, Arabs and Ottomans. And the Americans,
of course, And the Israelis.
Yesterday's election will probably have "united" the poor old Lebanese
yet again. In what cauldron, we can only wait to find out.
By Robert Fisk
AZG Armenian Daily
13/06/2009
Lebanon
Government of 'national salvation' set to rule after pro-Western Saad
Hariri fails to claim decisive victory
There will be no Islamic Republic of Lebanon. Nor will there be a
pro-Western Lebanese republic. There will, after yesterday's vote - for
the Hizbollah-Christian coalition and for the secular Sunni-Christian
alliance - be a government of "national salvation" in Beirut, run by
an ex-army general-president with ever-increasing powers.
Washington would have preferred that Saad Hariri, son of the
assassinated ex-prime minister, came out with a clear win. But out
of the shadows will come the same crippled, un-healable Lebanon;
delightful, unworkable, poor old Lebanon, corrupt, beautiful,
vanity-prone, intelligent, democratic - yes, definitely, democratic -
and absolutely outside our powers to reform.
The electoral system - a crazed mixture of sectarianism, proportional
representation and "list" fixing - means that no one ever really "wins"
elections in Lebanon, and yesterday was no different. The "anti-Syrian"
parties - the Sunnis, the Druze, half of the Christian community -
made sure that their votes prevented a Hizbollah takeover, while the
huge Shia vote - for Hizbollah and the Amal party and the Christians
who follow the lead of the raving Christian ex-general20Michael Aoun
- made certain there would be no clear win for America's friends in
the country.
But the president, who under Lebanon's unwritten constitution must be
a Christian Maronite, will be able to fashion some kind of "central
bloc" by midday today - or so all Lebanon hopes - which will include
Hizbollah, the forces of anti-Syrian Sunni Islam, the Druze and even
the Christians. The latter, always their own worst enemies in Lebanon,
albeit a minority, will ironically be more powerful than ever because
their president is one of them.
Lebanon deployed up to 60,000 troops and armed police to control the
ballot boxes and, to their considerable credit, not a single gun-battle
appears to have broken out. Given the personal nature of some of the
contests - this is a highly tribal society whatever the modernity
of Beirut and its suburbs - this was quite an achievement. Driving
around the capital, I found only good-natured checkpoints, handing me
papers of candidates' names for whom I should vote, both Christians
and Muslims, in the same list. If they wore blue hats, they were
for Hariri. If they wore yellow hats - and there were conservative
Shia Muslim women without scarves - they were for Hizbollah. If they
dressed in orange, they were trying to win votes for Aoun.
The Lebanese, a very shrewd people, have been reading the foreign
press and listening to the=2 0BBC, Al-Jazeera, even Fox News. They
knew that for foreigners - the ajnabi - there was only one story:
Lebanon becomes a finger of Iran or Syria - or it remains in America's
hands. More dangerously, the Israelis would be able to claim it was
a "terrorist" state if Hizbollah won. But then the Israelis would
claim it was a "terrorist" state if even one minister was a member
of Hizbollah. They will have their way.
By last night, it looked as if the spread of parties would win a
share of the vote equal to their numbers; that the Shia Muslims would
have the largest group of MPs but without a majority, thus allowing
Lebanon's power-sharing system to settle back into its old ways. Why
should we worry? Yes, it is corrupt. Tens of thousands of Lebanese
flew home to vote - you can't vote abroad in Lebanese elections -
so who paid their fare? Who has $30m to spend on air fares?
To be a modern state, Lebanon must de-confessionalise. Its president -
currently the ex-general Michel Sleiman - should be elected on merit
rather than religion. Its prime minister, who must be a Sunni Muslim,
should be elected on merit. But the moment you take away these
privileges, Lebanon will cease to be Lebanon - because its very
identity is sectarian.
Lebanon is a tiny country, just over 4,000 square miles in size,
and it is very definitely Muslim (60 per cent of i ts four million
population are Muslim), but it has 18 religious sects which include
the descendants of the poor Armenian Christians who, naked and beaten,
dragged themselves here after their genocide at the hands of the
Turks in 1915. The Assyrians came this way. So did the Persians,
Romans, Crusaders, Mamlukes, Arabs and Ottomans. And the Americans,
of course, And the Israelis.
Yesterday's election will probably have "united" the poor old Lebanese
yet again. In what cauldron, we can only wait to find out.