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LEBANON VOTING AT CROSSROADS
CNN.com
June 2, 2009 Tuesday 3:46 PM EST
Lebanon's parliamentary elections will determine which path the
country will take in the next four years -- the direction of Islamic
militancy and closer ties to countries such as Iran and Syria, or a
route to more westernization and openness.
The results will undoubtedly dictate the course for the entire Middle
East. Will the region remain steadfast in the face of an Iranian
growing influence and stature or will the threat of a Shiite spread
create new hostilities, conflicts and even redraw some maps?
Whatever the election results in Lebanon, they will set the stage
and tone for the new U.S. administration in its attempt to change
its image in a troubled ever-changing Middle East.
The Lebanese constitution calls for the president to be a Maronite
Christian, the House speaker a Muslim Shiite and the prime minister
Muslim Sunni. President Michel Sleiman is serving a six-year term
which began in May 2008.
Lebanon is the only Arab country with a thriving and politically active
Christian population, making it a significant ally of the west. Its
Sunni population makes it a natural ally of the mostly Sunni Arab
world. And its growing Shiite population has found a natural bondage
and unconditional support from Shiite Iran.
These forces constantly exert an influence that's apparent in the
country's social, political, and financial life.
The parliamentary elections are pitting a pro-western camp against
Hezbollah, known for its anti-western views and attitudes. A majority
in parliament will have a larger influence over choosing the House
speaker and in turn will play a decisive role in approving the prime
minister and cabinet.
In the past four years, the bloc led by current Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora represented the parliamentary majority and enjoyed support
from almost every country in the world except Iran and Syria.
It did however fail to move the country forward and it did not
succeed in working effectively with the opposition. Perhaps because
the opposition represented by Hezbollah focused only on calling the
Siniora government to resign.
To this effect, the opposition organized a sit-in in downtown Beirut
that lasted over a year. Then, following a blunt military takeover
of Beirut by Hezbollah in May 2008, the Doha (Qatar) agreement was
reached which led to an agreed-upon president and new election laws
in favor of Hezbollah and their allies.
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by many in the west
but seen as a legitimate and heroic resistance by many Lebanese and
Arabs. The world has witnessed in the past four years how Hezbollah
is capable of creating havoc if it doesn't get its way.
No matter who wins a majority in the parliamentary elections, one
thing is guaranteed: Lebanon will emerge as the same divided country
that no party or entity seems able to unite.
Professor Shibley Telahmi has led extensive polls across the Middle
East over the past years analyzing Arab attitudes and opinions on
subjects ranging from democracy to Arab-U.S. relations. He says:
"Whoever emerges a winner, they will need a transformative deal to
form a government and they will face significant opposition."
Lebanon was bruised up during a 15-year civil war that changed forms
many times and pitted Christians against Muslims before it drove
Christians to kill Christians and Muslims kill fellow Muslims.
Things got so bent out of shape that some of the alliances on the
ground today simply don't make sense.
The most famous or infamous of those alliances is that of Michel Aoun
and the Armenian Tashnaq party with Hezbollah.
And it's one of the forces that experts believe might tip the balance.
A former Christian army general, Aoun once fought the Syrian occupation
of Lebanon and vowed to break the neck of Syria's president. Now he
stands by Syria's staunchest allies.
"It's all about the politics not the ideology" says Krikor, an
independent voter who shared his views on why his fellow Armenians
sided with Aoun and Hezbollah.
Krikor, who prefers to use only his first name, believes Armenians
felt alienated under the old government. "Now that every vote counts,
Armenians as a bloc went with those who supported them during ordinary
times," he said
Aoun was also alienated by the old parliamentary majority which led
him to Hezbollah's welcoming arms.
His supporters believe that his trips to Iran and Syria are meant to
show a desire for healthy relations with the two countries and should
not be interpreted as allegiance to either.
Aoun, who was exiled in France under the Syrian rule of Lebanon,
is believed to be a potential future mediator between Hezbollah and
the west.
What happens if Hezbollah imposes its strict Islamic rule on the
country or even forces women to wear the head to toe cover known as
the Chador?
Krikor rejects the notions and says" "Armenians are Christians who
suffered a lot throughout history. They will side with you but they
won't let you take away their will or their way of life."
Professor Telhamy believes a lot is riding on these elections. His
nightmare scenario involves "an escalation in the Gulf region into
a war that involves Iran." He stresses: "You should always look at
the moving parts and their connectedness to other issues."
What concerns observers are the "unpredictable consequences" he says.
Will a Hezbollah win drive Iran to be more aggressive and defiant in
its pursuit of nuclear technology and even nuclear weapons? Will it
drive Israel to confront Iran militarily? Will the U.S. take part in
any response against Iran?
And these are only a few possibilities in the long list of
unpredictable consequences.
CNN.com
June 2, 2009 Tuesday 3:46 PM EST
Lebanon's parliamentary elections will determine which path the
country will take in the next four years -- the direction of Islamic
militancy and closer ties to countries such as Iran and Syria, or a
route to more westernization and openness.
The results will undoubtedly dictate the course for the entire Middle
East. Will the region remain steadfast in the face of an Iranian
growing influence and stature or will the threat of a Shiite spread
create new hostilities, conflicts and even redraw some maps?
Whatever the election results in Lebanon, they will set the stage
and tone for the new U.S. administration in its attempt to change
its image in a troubled ever-changing Middle East.
The Lebanese constitution calls for the president to be a Maronite
Christian, the House speaker a Muslim Shiite and the prime minister
Muslim Sunni. President Michel Sleiman is serving a six-year term
which began in May 2008.
Lebanon is the only Arab country with a thriving and politically active
Christian population, making it a significant ally of the west. Its
Sunni population makes it a natural ally of the mostly Sunni Arab
world. And its growing Shiite population has found a natural bondage
and unconditional support from Shiite Iran.
These forces constantly exert an influence that's apparent in the
country's social, political, and financial life.
The parliamentary elections are pitting a pro-western camp against
Hezbollah, known for its anti-western views and attitudes. A majority
in parliament will have a larger influence over choosing the House
speaker and in turn will play a decisive role in approving the prime
minister and cabinet.
In the past four years, the bloc led by current Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora represented the parliamentary majority and enjoyed support
from almost every country in the world except Iran and Syria.
It did however fail to move the country forward and it did not
succeed in working effectively with the opposition. Perhaps because
the opposition represented by Hezbollah focused only on calling the
Siniora government to resign.
To this effect, the opposition organized a sit-in in downtown Beirut
that lasted over a year. Then, following a blunt military takeover
of Beirut by Hezbollah in May 2008, the Doha (Qatar) agreement was
reached which led to an agreed-upon president and new election laws
in favor of Hezbollah and their allies.
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by many in the west
but seen as a legitimate and heroic resistance by many Lebanese and
Arabs. The world has witnessed in the past four years how Hezbollah
is capable of creating havoc if it doesn't get its way.
No matter who wins a majority in the parliamentary elections, one
thing is guaranteed: Lebanon will emerge as the same divided country
that no party or entity seems able to unite.
Professor Shibley Telahmi has led extensive polls across the Middle
East over the past years analyzing Arab attitudes and opinions on
subjects ranging from democracy to Arab-U.S. relations. He says:
"Whoever emerges a winner, they will need a transformative deal to
form a government and they will face significant opposition."
Lebanon was bruised up during a 15-year civil war that changed forms
many times and pitted Christians against Muslims before it drove
Christians to kill Christians and Muslims kill fellow Muslims.
Things got so bent out of shape that some of the alliances on the
ground today simply don't make sense.
The most famous or infamous of those alliances is that of Michel Aoun
and the Armenian Tashnaq party with Hezbollah.
And it's one of the forces that experts believe might tip the balance.
A former Christian army general, Aoun once fought the Syrian occupation
of Lebanon and vowed to break the neck of Syria's president. Now he
stands by Syria's staunchest allies.
"It's all about the politics not the ideology" says Krikor, an
independent voter who shared his views on why his fellow Armenians
sided with Aoun and Hezbollah.
Krikor, who prefers to use only his first name, believes Armenians
felt alienated under the old government. "Now that every vote counts,
Armenians as a bloc went with those who supported them during ordinary
times," he said
Aoun was also alienated by the old parliamentary majority which led
him to Hezbollah's welcoming arms.
His supporters believe that his trips to Iran and Syria are meant to
show a desire for healthy relations with the two countries and should
not be interpreted as allegiance to either.
Aoun, who was exiled in France under the Syrian rule of Lebanon,
is believed to be a potential future mediator between Hezbollah and
the west.
What happens if Hezbollah imposes its strict Islamic rule on the
country or even forces women to wear the head to toe cover known as
the Chador?
Krikor rejects the notions and says" "Armenians are Christians who
suffered a lot throughout history. They will side with you but they
won't let you take away their will or their way of life."
Professor Telhamy believes a lot is riding on these elections. His
nightmare scenario involves "an escalation in the Gulf region into
a war that involves Iran." He stresses: "You should always look at
the moving parts and their connectedness to other issues."
What concerns observers are the "unpredictable consequences" he says.
Will a Hezbollah win drive Iran to be more aggressive and defiant in
its pursuit of nuclear technology and even nuclear weapons? Will it
drive Israel to confront Iran militarily? Will the U.S. take part in
any response against Iran?
And these are only a few possibilities in the long list of
unpredictable consequences.