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Armenia Still Under External Inflationary Pressure

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  • Armenia Still Under External Inflationary Pressure

    ARMENIA STILL UNDER EXTERNAL INFLATIONARY PRESSURE

    ARKA
    June 19, 2009

    YEREVAN, June 19. /ARKA/. Armenia is still under weak inflationary
    pressure despite the May rise in the world prices for a number of
    raw materials and food products.

    At its sitting, the Board of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) pointed
    out that the mounting global financial and economic crisis has made the
    economic situation in Armenia a little worse - an economic decline of
    9.7% has been recorded over the last year, which exceeded the target.

    The reason for the decline is smaller-scale construction work
    funded by organizations as a result of cut down investments and,
    therefore, reduced output of building materials. The chemical and
    mining industries, which proved to be more sensitive to the crisis,
    reduced output as well.

    Downtrends in economic crediting still continue. However, the CBA
    continues its expansionary policy to encourage banks to credit the
    economy amid the crisis. Specifically, long-and short-term REPOs are
    provided to banks. The CBA is also actively involved in the secondary
    securities market of Armenia.

    The CBA Board repeatedly pointed out extremely dim prospects of the
    macro-environment, which accounts for further inflation expectations
    in the country.

    The CBA Board members agreed that the present lower-inflation risks
    are higher than the higher-inflation risks as the GDP decline rates
    exceed the targets, and any risks of higher-than-targeted i nflation
    rates as a result of the exchange rate reaching its optimal level -
    which level is determined by key economic indicators - are unlikely.

    The above caused the CBA Board to reduce the annual refinancing rates
    by 0.25% down to 6%. The mounting crisis makes moderation of the
    monetary policy advisable, which proceeds from effective comparison
    of stable prices and economic activity. The interest rates on deposits
    and collateral loans set at 3% and 9% respectively.

    The CBA Board considered it necessary to reduce the refinancing rate
    and continue the expansion, which is presently the optimal way of
    accomplishing the tasks set.
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