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NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND NEAR EAST
"Noravank" Foundation
26 February 2009
Sevak Sarukhanyan
The beginning of 2009 was marked by the developments of political,
military and economic character, which may cause some changes in the
situation in Central Asia and Near East. The activation of
implementation of `Nabucco' project, the new quality of collaboration
between Turkey and Iran in the sphere of energetic, the decision of
authorities of Kirgizstan to withdraw American military base from the
country must be regarded as the most important ones.
`Nabucco' and the accession of Turkey to the EU
Turkey was one of the countries which suffered from the
Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis most of all. Though the `Blue stream' gas
pipeline directly connects Russian and Turkish gas systems and allows
supplying Russian gas by that pipeline laid on the Black Sea seafloor
directly to Turkey, but western Turkish provinces supply their gas
demand by Russian gas, delivered through the territory of Bulgaria. The
interruption of Russian gas supply through Ukraine caused the situation
when the western regions of Turkey were deprived of Russian blue-sky
fuel.
Though Russian Gazprom, Turkish national oil company and `Botas' had
solved the problem of the increase in the amount of gas pumped through
the `Blue stream' and managed to solve the problem of the gas supply to
the western regions of Turkey, Turkish authorities could use the
Russian-Ukrainian discrepancies in order to forward their political and
economic interests.
On January 19 Turkish prime-minister R.T. Erdogan, who was in Brussels
on the EU entry talks, cast a doubt on economic expediency of `Nabucco'
and stated that his country was going to reconsider its approach to
that project. He also mentioned that Turkey would not support the
`Nabucco' project if Brussels did not reconsider its position on the
demands of the liberalization of the energy sphere, which was connected
with the issue of Turkey's accession to the EU. `If we reach a
deadlock, then, naturally, we shall reconsider our position', - said
Erdogan while speaking on the issues of `Nabucco' and the accession of
Turkey to the EU.
It should be mentioned that it is the first time that Turkey has spoken
about the expediency of `Nabucco'. It is obvious that the position of
that country on `Nabucco' project has not changed and it could not even
change as the construction of the pipeline will be of great political
and economic benefit for Turkey. The fact that Endogan put `Nabucco' in
question can be regarded as the blackmail in order to boost the
accession of Turkey to the EU, which became possible at the moment when
Europe felt the unreliability of the gas pipeline going throu
gh the
territory of Ukraine on its own back.
After Erdogan's critical statements in Brussels he entered into
negotiations with the president of European Commission Borroso. After
the high-level negotiations between Turkey and the EU Borroso said
that, anyway, Turkey and the EU had reached the agreement on the issue
of the construction of `Nabucco' pipeline. However, in Barruso's
opinion there is no necessity to tie `Nabucco' with the accession of
Turkey to the EU. At the same time he said that if Turkey helped Europe
to diversify gas supply and to lessen their dependence on Russian fuel,
this would have positive influence on public opinion in Europe, which
have rather cautious relation to the prospect of big Muslim country's
accession to the EU.
On January 20 Barroso came forward with the suggestion to promote the
work with Turkey in order it could join the EU as soon as possible. And
this will promote to the magnitude of the European Union and `will
enhance its energy security'.
The January ended providing two more evidences of the enhancement of
the positions of Ankara in the relation between Turkey and the EU.
Firstly, the summit on the issues of the `Nabucco' pipeline
construction on January 27 in Budapest once more came to prove the
significance of Turkey for the energy and economic security of the EU
and underlined the importance of=2
0its membership to the EU. Secondly,
the growing significance of Turkey for the EU, probably, let its
prime-minister act aggressively (which is unacceptable for any European
leader) with the president of Israel Sh. Peres. At the same time the
behavior of the Turkish prime-minister was determined by another
important factor: the Islamic administration of Turkey tries to present
the interests of Muslim world. The latest developments, including the
steps made in the direction of the accession of Iran to `Nabucco'
project, show that the Turkish authorities also added some economic
constituent to their policy.
The stirring up of Iran in the regional energetic projects
Recently Turkey especially has been trying to emphasize the role of
Iran in the issue of Europe energy security. In his speech in the
Center of European policy in Brussels Erdogan said that one could
hardly supply the necessary amount of gas, i.e. 30 billion of cubic
meters, to provide the work of `Nabucco' pipeline. According to Erdogan
`Nabucco' can make sense in case if gas is pumped to Europe not only
from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan but also from Iran. The
talks on Turkish-Iranian energy collaboration began at the beginning of
the year and this was caused by the visit of Ali Larijani, the
spokesman of Iranian parliament, to Ankara. As a result the ministers
of energetic of Turkey and Iran were given a commission=2
0to stir up the
negotiations on the intensification of collaboration and implementation
of joint programmes in the sphere of gas. The pipeline Erzurum `
Tabriz, built as back as 2001, creates rather good background for the
accession of Iran to `Nabucco'. This pipeline supplied Turkey on
average with 8 billion cubic meters of gas annually; meanwhile, the
capability of that pipeline allows supplying three times as much gas.
After the developments which took place in South Caucasus in August,
when it became clear that Georgia was not reliable as a transit
country, the possibility that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will join the
South Caucasian pipeline has sharply lowered. Today Azerbaijan, in
fact, is the only Caspian country ready to take part in `Nabucco'
project not only on paper but also practically. Neither Turkmenistan,
nor Kazakhstan has made any practical step to become a part of that
project and they would hardly do. Under such conditions Ankara realizes
that in order to implement the `Nabucco' project and to get necessary
financial and political dividends they need to include Iran, which has
rather vast gas resources, in that project. There is such an approach
in Europe too, on the level of political and economic actors. On the
summit in Budapest the necessity of developing of cooperation with Iran
was also stated by the executives of the companies, which are involved
in the
implementation of `Nabucco' pipeline, including the author of
the project and one of the main lobbyists the vice-president of
Austrian `OMV Gas & Power GmbH' company G. Bogart.
The main difficulties, which may emerge owing to the accession of Iran
to the `Nabucco', are conditioned by the position of Washington as the
new administration of the US, in spite of the different analysis, has
not elaborated and presented its own `Iranian policy' yet. However,
today there are rather good grounds for the improvement of the
relations between Iran and America, especially, if we take into
consideration those difficulties, which will arise after the withdrawal
of their military base from `Manas' in Kirgizstan. This will bring to
the shift of the power and will directly influence the relations
between Iran and the US.
Developments in Central Asia
The decision of the authorities of Kirgizstan to remove troops from the
territory of their country brings the situation in the region back to
2001 when the US had no military presence in Central Asia. When in 2001
Washington after the agreement with Moscow opened military bases in
Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan, the main aim of the US was to implement
military actions in Afghanistan. After the fall of Taliban regime the
military bases were not withdrawn from the region, though there was an
impression that the Afghani problem was solved and20there was no
necessity to keep those bases. The Russian-American discrepancies
concerning those military bases, (those discrepancies were called by
Russian analyst F. Lukyanov `war of nerves') disappeared in February
2009 when Kirgiz authorities under the obvious pressure of Russia and
on the assumption of compensation made a decision to close `Manas' Air
Force base. This is a very important decision of strategic character,
which is the evidence of the consolidation of Russian positions in the
region. Unlike 2003 when the Pentagon produced different fabricated
reasons in order to preserve its military presence in Uzbekistan and
Kirgizstan, the situation is quite different today; the military
presence in Central Asia is of vital importance for Washington as the
situation in Afghanistan recently has really become tense and
dangerous. And under such circumstances Kirgizstan, and in fact Russia,
make the US withdraw from the region.
How is the US going to solve the problem of reinforcement, supply and
support of their troops when they have lost their bases in Central Asia
and when Pakistan becomes even more dangerous transition area for the
Americans? The news that Washington tries to offer Tajikistan to open
air force base on its territory comes to prove the slackening of the US
positions and the entanglement of the situation. Tajikistan is not only
the ally of Russia, it is also a country, which has close t
ights and
broad cooperation with Iran, and there are many Islamists and radicals
fraught with hatred towards the US. It is obvious that if Washington
cannot make terms with Russia concerning the military base in
Tajikistan, then it needs at least to carry out the consent of Tehran.
Iran until recent times has great resources to escalate the situation
in Tajikistan, which is at civil war now, and it is out of question
that there cannot be any American military presence without the consent
of Iran.
This is really a very important factor that can boost the dialogue
between the US and Iran. It can start not now but in several months
when Iran embarks on a new stage of presidential relations.
However, the beginning of 2009 initiates serious changes in regional
military and political developments, which may also cause the change of
general situation and the shift of powers.
Other issues of author
DEVELOPMENTS IN DOMESTIC POLICY OF IRAN [29.01.2009]
ON IRAN-US PERSPECTIVE OF RELATIONS [24.11.2008]
NEW IRAN-WEST DEVELOPMENTS [30.10.2008]
ENERGY FACTOR IN SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS [25.09.2008]
IRAN: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS [03.07.2008]
ENTRANCE OF THE IRANIAN GAS INTO EUROPE [17.04.2008]
NEW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM [31.03.2008]
"Noravank" Foundation
26 February 2009
Sevak Sarukhanyan
The beginning of 2009 was marked by the developments of political,
military and economic character, which may cause some changes in the
situation in Central Asia and Near East. The activation of
implementation of `Nabucco' project, the new quality of collaboration
between Turkey and Iran in the sphere of energetic, the decision of
authorities of Kirgizstan to withdraw American military base from the
country must be regarded as the most important ones.
`Nabucco' and the accession of Turkey to the EU
Turkey was one of the countries which suffered from the
Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis most of all. Though the `Blue stream' gas
pipeline directly connects Russian and Turkish gas systems and allows
supplying Russian gas by that pipeline laid on the Black Sea seafloor
directly to Turkey, but western Turkish provinces supply their gas
demand by Russian gas, delivered through the territory of Bulgaria. The
interruption of Russian gas supply through Ukraine caused the situation
when the western regions of Turkey were deprived of Russian blue-sky
fuel.
Though Russian Gazprom, Turkish national oil company and `Botas' had
solved the problem of the increase in the amount of gas pumped through
the `Blue stream' and managed to solve the problem of the gas supply to
the western regions of Turkey, Turkish authorities could use the
Russian-Ukrainian discrepancies in order to forward their political and
economic interests.
On January 19 Turkish prime-minister R.T. Erdogan, who was in Brussels
on the EU entry talks, cast a doubt on economic expediency of `Nabucco'
and stated that his country was going to reconsider its approach to
that project. He also mentioned that Turkey would not support the
`Nabucco' project if Brussels did not reconsider its position on the
demands of the liberalization of the energy sphere, which was connected
with the issue of Turkey's accession to the EU. `If we reach a
deadlock, then, naturally, we shall reconsider our position', - said
Erdogan while speaking on the issues of `Nabucco' and the accession of
Turkey to the EU.
It should be mentioned that it is the first time that Turkey has spoken
about the expediency of `Nabucco'. It is obvious that the position of
that country on `Nabucco' project has not changed and it could not even
change as the construction of the pipeline will be of great political
and economic benefit for Turkey. The fact that Endogan put `Nabucco' in
question can be regarded as the blackmail in order to boost the
accession of Turkey to the EU, which became possible at the moment when
Europe felt the unreliability of the gas pipeline going throu
gh the
territory of Ukraine on its own back.
After Erdogan's critical statements in Brussels he entered into
negotiations with the president of European Commission Borroso. After
the high-level negotiations between Turkey and the EU Borroso said
that, anyway, Turkey and the EU had reached the agreement on the issue
of the construction of `Nabucco' pipeline. However, in Barruso's
opinion there is no necessity to tie `Nabucco' with the accession of
Turkey to the EU. At the same time he said that if Turkey helped Europe
to diversify gas supply and to lessen their dependence on Russian fuel,
this would have positive influence on public opinion in Europe, which
have rather cautious relation to the prospect of big Muslim country's
accession to the EU.
On January 20 Barroso came forward with the suggestion to promote the
work with Turkey in order it could join the EU as soon as possible. And
this will promote to the magnitude of the European Union and `will
enhance its energy security'.
The January ended providing two more evidences of the enhancement of
the positions of Ankara in the relation between Turkey and the EU.
Firstly, the summit on the issues of the `Nabucco' pipeline
construction on January 27 in Budapest once more came to prove the
significance of Turkey for the energy and economic security of the EU
and underlined the importance of=2
0its membership to the EU. Secondly,
the growing significance of Turkey for the EU, probably, let its
prime-minister act aggressively (which is unacceptable for any European
leader) with the president of Israel Sh. Peres. At the same time the
behavior of the Turkish prime-minister was determined by another
important factor: the Islamic administration of Turkey tries to present
the interests of Muslim world. The latest developments, including the
steps made in the direction of the accession of Iran to `Nabucco'
project, show that the Turkish authorities also added some economic
constituent to their policy.
The stirring up of Iran in the regional energetic projects
Recently Turkey especially has been trying to emphasize the role of
Iran in the issue of Europe energy security. In his speech in the
Center of European policy in Brussels Erdogan said that one could
hardly supply the necessary amount of gas, i.e. 30 billion of cubic
meters, to provide the work of `Nabucco' pipeline. According to Erdogan
`Nabucco' can make sense in case if gas is pumped to Europe not only
from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan but also from Iran. The
talks on Turkish-Iranian energy collaboration began at the beginning of
the year and this was caused by the visit of Ali Larijani, the
spokesman of Iranian parliament, to Ankara. As a result the ministers
of energetic of Turkey and Iran were given a commission=2
0to stir up the
negotiations on the intensification of collaboration and implementation
of joint programmes in the sphere of gas. The pipeline Erzurum `
Tabriz, built as back as 2001, creates rather good background for the
accession of Iran to `Nabucco'. This pipeline supplied Turkey on
average with 8 billion cubic meters of gas annually; meanwhile, the
capability of that pipeline allows supplying three times as much gas.
After the developments which took place in South Caucasus in August,
when it became clear that Georgia was not reliable as a transit
country, the possibility that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will join the
South Caucasian pipeline has sharply lowered. Today Azerbaijan, in
fact, is the only Caspian country ready to take part in `Nabucco'
project not only on paper but also practically. Neither Turkmenistan,
nor Kazakhstan has made any practical step to become a part of that
project and they would hardly do. Under such conditions Ankara realizes
that in order to implement the `Nabucco' project and to get necessary
financial and political dividends they need to include Iran, which has
rather vast gas resources, in that project. There is such an approach
in Europe too, on the level of political and economic actors. On the
summit in Budapest the necessity of developing of cooperation with Iran
was also stated by the executives of the companies, which are involved
in the
implementation of `Nabucco' pipeline, including the author of
the project and one of the main lobbyists the vice-president of
Austrian `OMV Gas & Power GmbH' company G. Bogart.
The main difficulties, which may emerge owing to the accession of Iran
to the `Nabucco', are conditioned by the position of Washington as the
new administration of the US, in spite of the different analysis, has
not elaborated and presented its own `Iranian policy' yet. However,
today there are rather good grounds for the improvement of the
relations between Iran and America, especially, if we take into
consideration those difficulties, which will arise after the withdrawal
of their military base from `Manas' in Kirgizstan. This will bring to
the shift of the power and will directly influence the relations
between Iran and the US.
Developments in Central Asia
The decision of the authorities of Kirgizstan to remove troops from the
territory of their country brings the situation in the region back to
2001 when the US had no military presence in Central Asia. When in 2001
Washington after the agreement with Moscow opened military bases in
Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan, the main aim of the US was to implement
military actions in Afghanistan. After the fall of Taliban regime the
military bases were not withdrawn from the region, though there was an
impression that the Afghani problem was solved and20there was no
necessity to keep those bases. The Russian-American discrepancies
concerning those military bases, (those discrepancies were called by
Russian analyst F. Lukyanov `war of nerves') disappeared in February
2009 when Kirgiz authorities under the obvious pressure of Russia and
on the assumption of compensation made a decision to close `Manas' Air
Force base. This is a very important decision of strategic character,
which is the evidence of the consolidation of Russian positions in the
region. Unlike 2003 when the Pentagon produced different fabricated
reasons in order to preserve its military presence in Uzbekistan and
Kirgizstan, the situation is quite different today; the military
presence in Central Asia is of vital importance for Washington as the
situation in Afghanistan recently has really become tense and
dangerous. And under such circumstances Kirgizstan, and in fact Russia,
make the US withdraw from the region.
How is the US going to solve the problem of reinforcement, supply and
support of their troops when they have lost their bases in Central Asia
and when Pakistan becomes even more dangerous transition area for the
Americans? The news that Washington tries to offer Tajikistan to open
air force base on its territory comes to prove the slackening of the US
positions and the entanglement of the situation. Tajikistan is not only
the ally of Russia, it is also a country, which has close t
ights and
broad cooperation with Iran, and there are many Islamists and radicals
fraught with hatred towards the US. It is obvious that if Washington
cannot make terms with Russia concerning the military base in
Tajikistan, then it needs at least to carry out the consent of Tehran.
Iran until recent times has great resources to escalate the situation
in Tajikistan, which is at civil war now, and it is out of question
that there cannot be any American military presence without the consent
of Iran.
This is really a very important factor that can boost the dialogue
between the US and Iran. It can start not now but in several months
when Iran embarks on a new stage of presidential relations.
However, the beginning of 2009 initiates serious changes in regional
military and political developments, which may also cause the change of
general situation and the shift of powers.
Other issues of author
DEVELOPMENTS IN DOMESTIC POLICY OF IRAN [29.01.2009]
ON IRAN-US PERSPECTIVE OF RELATIONS [24.11.2008]
NEW IRAN-WEST DEVELOPMENTS [30.10.2008]
ENERGY FACTOR IN SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS [25.09.2008]
IRAN: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS [03.07.2008]
ENTRANCE OF THE IRANIAN GAS INTO EUROPE [17.04.2008]
NEW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM [31.03.2008]