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Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.Am
12:14:03 - 18/03/2009
Conversations on the opening of the Armenian and Turkish border are
rather activated on these days. Even statements are made on a possible
progress in this connection in April, for example by Galust Sahakyan;
Kiro Manoyan who is in charge of the political affairs and Hay Dat
of the ARF Bureau even states that an agreement on the border opening
is not ruled out either.
At first sight, it seems that these conversations are expedient for
Turkey which government is probable to have given some promises to
the Armenian government or at least hinted at them, and the Armenian
government, on the ground of these hints, spreads conversations on the
forthcoming opening of the border. It is clear to everyone or almost
everyone, that this enables Turkey to make understand the U.S. that
in case of the recognition of the Armenian genocide, the Armenian
and Turkish border opening may fail. This blackmail will become more
persuasive if Armenia and Turkey sign a decree which will stand for
the existence of something between these two countries.
This will be the document pointed out by Kiro Manoyan which will
create tangible grounds for Obama to postpone the question on the
Armenian genocide recognition for a while, because it will be a
little humiliating for the U.S. president to fulfil his promise to
the Armenians just because of a Turkish bl ackmail. But, let it
not create an impression that these conversations are expedient
only to Turkey and Barak Obama and the Armenian authorities just
swallowed the bait and afterwards they will remain with nohting,
in other words the border will not open and the genocide will not be
recognized. In reality, these conversations are quite favourable for
Armenian government too. The point is that the Yerevan Mayor election
is scheduled on May 31 and the Armenian opposition will try to give
it a political shade. Proceeding from everything, the opposition will
success in it, judging by the number of people participating in March
1 rally, moreover that the opposition promoted Levon Ter-Petrosyan for
Mayor. What the government may oppose to this step: besides violence,
only asphalt, probably of bad quality. But the situation is a little
different: both the asphalt and violence may be insufficient, and
the violence- even dangerous.
And here the progress on the Armenian and Turkish border opening may
play its role. With the help of which, the Armenian government will try
to distract the public from home processes and direct their attention
towards external processes. "What Mayor Election? A historical event
is going to take place," the government will probably propagate.
So, the activation of the conversation concerning the Armenian and
Turkish border opening is equally expedient for Turkey, Armenia and
the U.S. The point is that if these activations go in with the State
interest of Turkey and the U.S., considering that Turkey prevents the
recognition of the Armenian genocide by the U.S. and the U.S. gets an
opportunity to build relations with Turkey; in case of Armenia these
conversations go in with the interests of the government. If the price
for the progress is the maintenance of the home marsh and creation
other perspectives for the clan-oligarchic system, the Armenian State
interest is not notable even in case of the opening of the border.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Hakob Badalyan
Lragir.Am
12:14:03 - 18/03/2009
Conversations on the opening of the Armenian and Turkish border are
rather activated on these days. Even statements are made on a possible
progress in this connection in April, for example by Galust Sahakyan;
Kiro Manoyan who is in charge of the political affairs and Hay Dat
of the ARF Bureau even states that an agreement on the border opening
is not ruled out either.
At first sight, it seems that these conversations are expedient for
Turkey which government is probable to have given some promises to
the Armenian government or at least hinted at them, and the Armenian
government, on the ground of these hints, spreads conversations on the
forthcoming opening of the border. It is clear to everyone or almost
everyone, that this enables Turkey to make understand the U.S. that
in case of the recognition of the Armenian genocide, the Armenian
and Turkish border opening may fail. This blackmail will become more
persuasive if Armenia and Turkey sign a decree which will stand for
the existence of something between these two countries.
This will be the document pointed out by Kiro Manoyan which will
create tangible grounds for Obama to postpone the question on the
Armenian genocide recognition for a while, because it will be a
little humiliating for the U.S. president to fulfil his promise to
the Armenians just because of a Turkish bl ackmail. But, let it
not create an impression that these conversations are expedient
only to Turkey and Barak Obama and the Armenian authorities just
swallowed the bait and afterwards they will remain with nohting,
in other words the border will not open and the genocide will not be
recognized. In reality, these conversations are quite favourable for
Armenian government too. The point is that the Yerevan Mayor election
is scheduled on May 31 and the Armenian opposition will try to give
it a political shade. Proceeding from everything, the opposition will
success in it, judging by the number of people participating in March
1 rally, moreover that the opposition promoted Levon Ter-Petrosyan for
Mayor. What the government may oppose to this step: besides violence,
only asphalt, probably of bad quality. But the situation is a little
different: both the asphalt and violence may be insufficient, and
the violence- even dangerous.
And here the progress on the Armenian and Turkish border opening may
play its role. With the help of which, the Armenian government will try
to distract the public from home processes and direct their attention
towards external processes. "What Mayor Election? A historical event
is going to take place," the government will probably propagate.
So, the activation of the conversation concerning the Armenian and
Turkish border opening is equally expedient for Turkey, Armenia and
the U.S. The point is that if these activations go in with the State
interest of Turkey and the U.S., considering that Turkey prevents the
recognition of the Armenian genocide by the U.S. and the U.S. gets an
opportunity to build relations with Turkey; in case of Armenia these
conversations go in with the interests of the government. If the price
for the progress is the maintenance of the home marsh and creation
other perspectives for the clan-oligarchic system, the Armenian State
interest is not notable even in case of the opening of the border.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress