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WILL CRISIS HELP RUSSIA ASSEMBLE ANOTHER USSR?
Sergei Semushkin
WPS Agency
What the Papers Say (Russia)
March 19, 2009 Thursday
Russia
CAN RUSSIA USE THE CRISIS TO RECONSTITUTE A COMMON POLITICAL ENTITY
WITHIN THE CIS BORDERS?; Loaning money to CIS neighbors: potential
advantages and dangers.
CIS countries remembered Russia in their hour of need. Kyrgyzstan and
Belarus seek $2 billions from Russia each, Ukraine wants $5 billion,
and Armenia $500 million...
Will the loans change their attitude toward Russia for the better
or will it be just a wasted goodwill gesture? Moskovsky Komsomolets
approached experts for comments.
One of Moscow's latest promises - to loan Kyrgyzstan $2 billion - set
the pot of the expert community literally boiling. There are absolutely
no guarantees that Russia will ever see its money again. Up to 60%
of the GDP of certain Central Asian republics are produced in Moscow
where the so called Gastarbeiters work and transact what they make
to their families at home.
"Loans to Kyrgyzstan should be regarded as a geopolitical project
rather than a financial gesture," suggested Aleksei Vlasov, Director
General of the Center for Sociopolitical Studies in the Post-Soviet
Zone. "Bishkek did show the US airbase the door. By and large, it's
a perfect moment for strengthening our positions there."
"Crisis offers a unique opportunity to establish a common zone,"
Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Konstantin Zatulin said. "I
say Russia should finance its neighbors. Particularly because money is
often loaned on certain terms. When $2 billion were loaned to Belarus,
for example, we brought up the matter of dumping."
Mikhail Delyagin, Director of the Institute of Globalization, agreed
that Russia should finance neighbors but only on rigid terms that
would benefit Russia. "Post-Soviet zone is a zone of chaos. There is
nobody around here but Russia to keep this chaos in check because
nobody else really cares. Should we be so foolish as to let this
chaos spread, it will certainly spread into Russia before long. What
does absence of a firm state rule in Tajikistan mean? It means drugs
in Moscow. It follows that we do not really have a choice and must
assist these territories," Delyagin said.
Even Ukraine swallowed its pride and asked Russia for a loan. Prime
Minister Yulia Timoshenko appealed to Russian Foreign Minister Aleksei
Kudrin for a loan of $5 billion.
"Ukraine is a different matter altogether. It is a complicated problem
indeed," Vlasov said. "The first thing that comes to mind is the
question concerning who Russia will have to ask for its money again
afterwards. I reckon the Russian leadership will think twice before
committing itself."
"Sure, money should be loaned even to Ukraine," Zatulin assumed. "Once
again, it is terms of the loan that count. Why wouldn't we offer
money to some CIS countries on the terms they may get loans from
the West? After all, some Ukrainian regions are expressly banned to
interact with Russian regions. I'd say that we should bring it up
when terms of the loan are discussed."
"Should Kiev permit Russian businesses to expand into Ukraine
and accept a plan of integration, it will warrant loaning the
Ukrainians $10 billion instead of the $5 billion they are asking for,"
Delyagin announced. "The matter of the Crimea and Sevastopol may be
settled within the framework of this integration plan to everyone's
satisfaction. The peninsula will eventually become a Turkish province
otherwise."
Russia's relations with its neighbors are far from ideal. Every
involved party plays its own game. Lukashenko in Minsk threatens
to borrow from the International Monetary Fund which Russia could
do without because Belarus will have to dance to the tune of IMF
principal creditors then, namely of the United States and European
Union. Azerbaijan hints that it just might join Nabucco and start
building a gas pipeline bypassing Russia. Even Armenia requests
recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh from Russia every now and then... And
all of them aspire to borrow from Moscow at the same time. Let's
say Russia lends a sympathetic ear and loans them the requested
sums. What if they turn their backs on Moscow again once the money is
transacted? All experts Moskovsky Komsomolets approached recognize this
danger as existing indeed. Moscow had better remember the Soviet Union
which was so free with loans that it eventually led to its own undoing.
* * *
Alexander Rahr, Director of Russian and CIS Programs of the German
Foreign Policy Council: Moscow will reestablish control over energy
economy
The crisis does offer Russia a chance to reclaim leftovers of the
erstwhile Soviet Union. Your neighbors need colossal sums. Western
banks refuse to finance them and the International Monetary
Fund demands control over their economic policies in return for
loans. Sure, Russia wants this control too. It means that countries of
the Commonwealth have to choose who to give this partial control to -
the West or Russia.
Ukraine is Russia's priority... or should be. Moscow might try
and economically reconnect Russia and at least the eastern regions
of Ukraine and the Crimea because the population there is mostly
pro-Russian. Belarus is the second priority and Kazakhstan too.
There is also Tajikistan to consider. It needs aid and Russia is
in the position to offer it. Moreover, Russia needs Tajikistan to
close the border with Afghanistan across which drugs are smuggled
into Tajikistan and then to Russia itself.
The way I see it, restoration of the energy complex of the former USSR
is the prime task. It is the countries controlling energy resources
that will recover faster than anyone else after the crisis. The
question is whether Russia has money for it.
Sergei Semushkin
WPS Agency
What the Papers Say (Russia)
March 19, 2009 Thursday
Russia
CAN RUSSIA USE THE CRISIS TO RECONSTITUTE A COMMON POLITICAL ENTITY
WITHIN THE CIS BORDERS?; Loaning money to CIS neighbors: potential
advantages and dangers.
CIS countries remembered Russia in their hour of need. Kyrgyzstan and
Belarus seek $2 billions from Russia each, Ukraine wants $5 billion,
and Armenia $500 million...
Will the loans change their attitude toward Russia for the better
or will it be just a wasted goodwill gesture? Moskovsky Komsomolets
approached experts for comments.
One of Moscow's latest promises - to loan Kyrgyzstan $2 billion - set
the pot of the expert community literally boiling. There are absolutely
no guarantees that Russia will ever see its money again. Up to 60%
of the GDP of certain Central Asian republics are produced in Moscow
where the so called Gastarbeiters work and transact what they make
to their families at home.
"Loans to Kyrgyzstan should be regarded as a geopolitical project
rather than a financial gesture," suggested Aleksei Vlasov, Director
General of the Center for Sociopolitical Studies in the Post-Soviet
Zone. "Bishkek did show the US airbase the door. By and large, it's
a perfect moment for strengthening our positions there."
"Crisis offers a unique opportunity to establish a common zone,"
Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Konstantin Zatulin said. "I
say Russia should finance its neighbors. Particularly because money is
often loaned on certain terms. When $2 billion were loaned to Belarus,
for example, we brought up the matter of dumping."
Mikhail Delyagin, Director of the Institute of Globalization, agreed
that Russia should finance neighbors but only on rigid terms that
would benefit Russia. "Post-Soviet zone is a zone of chaos. There is
nobody around here but Russia to keep this chaos in check because
nobody else really cares. Should we be so foolish as to let this
chaos spread, it will certainly spread into Russia before long. What
does absence of a firm state rule in Tajikistan mean? It means drugs
in Moscow. It follows that we do not really have a choice and must
assist these territories," Delyagin said.
Even Ukraine swallowed its pride and asked Russia for a loan. Prime
Minister Yulia Timoshenko appealed to Russian Foreign Minister Aleksei
Kudrin for a loan of $5 billion.
"Ukraine is a different matter altogether. It is a complicated problem
indeed," Vlasov said. "The first thing that comes to mind is the
question concerning who Russia will have to ask for its money again
afterwards. I reckon the Russian leadership will think twice before
committing itself."
"Sure, money should be loaned even to Ukraine," Zatulin assumed. "Once
again, it is terms of the loan that count. Why wouldn't we offer
money to some CIS countries on the terms they may get loans from
the West? After all, some Ukrainian regions are expressly banned to
interact with Russian regions. I'd say that we should bring it up
when terms of the loan are discussed."
"Should Kiev permit Russian businesses to expand into Ukraine
and accept a plan of integration, it will warrant loaning the
Ukrainians $10 billion instead of the $5 billion they are asking for,"
Delyagin announced. "The matter of the Crimea and Sevastopol may be
settled within the framework of this integration plan to everyone's
satisfaction. The peninsula will eventually become a Turkish province
otherwise."
Russia's relations with its neighbors are far from ideal. Every
involved party plays its own game. Lukashenko in Minsk threatens
to borrow from the International Monetary Fund which Russia could
do without because Belarus will have to dance to the tune of IMF
principal creditors then, namely of the United States and European
Union. Azerbaijan hints that it just might join Nabucco and start
building a gas pipeline bypassing Russia. Even Armenia requests
recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh from Russia every now and then... And
all of them aspire to borrow from Moscow at the same time. Let's
say Russia lends a sympathetic ear and loans them the requested
sums. What if they turn their backs on Moscow again once the money is
transacted? All experts Moskovsky Komsomolets approached recognize this
danger as existing indeed. Moscow had better remember the Soviet Union
which was so free with loans that it eventually led to its own undoing.
* * *
Alexander Rahr, Director of Russian and CIS Programs of the German
Foreign Policy Council: Moscow will reestablish control over energy
economy
The crisis does offer Russia a chance to reclaim leftovers of the
erstwhile Soviet Union. Your neighbors need colossal sums. Western
banks refuse to finance them and the International Monetary
Fund demands control over their economic policies in return for
loans. Sure, Russia wants this control too. It means that countries of
the Commonwealth have to choose who to give this partial control to -
the West or Russia.
Ukraine is Russia's priority... or should be. Moscow might try
and economically reconnect Russia and at least the eastern regions
of Ukraine and the Crimea because the population there is mostly
pro-Russian. Belarus is the second priority and Kazakhstan too.
There is also Tajikistan to consider. It needs aid and Russia is
in the position to offer it. Moreover, Russia needs Tajikistan to
close the border with Afghanistan across which drugs are smuggled
into Tajikistan and then to Russia itself.
The way I see it, restoration of the energy complex of the former USSR
is the prime task. It is the countries controlling energy resources
that will recover faster than anyone else after the crisis. The
question is whether Russia has money for it.