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TURKEY AND ARMENIA'S RAPPROCHEMENT WATCHED CAREFULLY BY AZERBAIJAN
By: Saban Kardas
Jamestown Foundation
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cac he=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34918&tx_ttnew s%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=9f429ee56e
April 29 2009
On April 22, the Foreign Ministries of Turkey, Armenia and Switzerland
issued a joint announcement saying that Ankara and Yerevan had agreed
to work toward improving their relations within the framework of a
roadmap under Swiss auspices. United States' diplomats were also
closely involved in the talks which preceded the deal. Although
the decision appears as a breakthrough in resolving this long-term
dispute, significant obstacles remain before the completion of the
rapprochement.
The joint statement read as follows:
"The two parties have achieved tangible progress and mutual
understanding in this process and they have agreed on a comprehensive
framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations in a
mutually satisfactory manner. In this context, a road-map has been
identified" (www.mfa.gov.tr, April 22).
Subsequent statements from diplomatic sources clarified that no
agreement has been signed and that the parties agreed to continue
working toward fully normalizing their bilateral relations. Although
the content of the ongoing talks were not disclosed officially, the
deal is likely to include establishing diplomatic representations
in their respective capitals, gradual re-opening of the border,
Armenia's recognition of Turkey's international borders, and forming
a joint committee of historians to examine the disputed events of 1915
(Sabah, April 24).
Many observers believe that if the process can be concluded
successfully, it will not only end the long-standing enmity within
the South Caucasus, but it also will redefine the geopolitical map
of the region -helping to connect Armenia with Western interests in
the region. Therefore, the decision was welcomed by the international
community as a constructive step toward reconciliation. A statement
from the U.S. State Department commended these efforts and called on
the parties to proceed with the talks without any preconditions and
within a reasonable time frame.
Initially this was anticipated against the background of the ongoing
dialogue, which had accelerated over the past year. This was given a
renewed impetus following Turkish President Abdullah Gul's historic
visit to Yerevan in September 2008. In addition to their various
bilateral talks, the foreign ministers of both countries also met
within the context of multilateral initiatives, raising expectations
that a deal could be achieved. Earlier press reports speculated that
the two capitals had agreed on a roadmap in late March, but they were
debating the proper timing to announce this decision (EDM, March 27;
Hurriyet Daily News, March 30). After Obama's recent high profile trip
to Turkey, Turkish-Armenian reconciliation was considered imminent.
However, following Obama's visit, Ankara stepped back from its
commitment to find a solution in an effort to allay concerns in
Baku. The Turkish Prime Minister and other officials declared publicly
that they would avoid steps which might damage Azerbaijan's interests,
and Turkey would not re-open its border with Armenia unless the latter
ended its occupation of Azerbaijani territories (EDM, April 17). These
developments rendered an agreement less likely.
The announcement that the parties had held secret talks and committed
publicly to a roadmap represented a major breakthrough. Nonetheless,
there have been conflicting accounts from each side as to whether
concessions were made on preconditions to start the negotiations. The
continued mystery surrounding the content of the talks may prove an
obstacle to a final settlement. Nationalist forces and the opposition,
both within Turkey and Armenia, remain opposed to the way in which
the rapprochement is being conducted -in an absence of public
scrutiny. Secret diplomacy is the key to achieving a breakthrough
in such protracted disputes, and supporters of normalization on both
sides insist that the governments should not bow to public pressure
to abandon the process (www.ntvmsnbc.com, April 26). Nonetheless,
the widening gap between the governments' rhetoric and reality risks
undermining this controversial foreign policy.
The Armenian government came under intense domestic criticism,
and a minor coalition partner withdrew from the government. Similar
problems within Turkey have further complicated these efforts. The AKP
government proceeded with the normalization without first preparing
public opinion for such a radical decision. It has also failed to keep
the opposition informed. Turkish opposition parties are now calling
on the government to stop conducting diplomacy behind closed doors,
and inform parliament of the current standing of the talks (Ortadogu,
April 28).
Moreover, the Turkish government is criticized for failing to give
clear answers as to how the Turkish-Armenian roadmap might impact on
Azerbaijan. Apparently, Turkey proceeded with the rapprochement without
ensuring Armenia's response to Azerbaijan's demands, and this stance
contradicted Ankara's earlier statements that it would protect Baku's
interests. For some Turkish observers, this is an indication that
the government did not have a genuine desire for reconciliation with
Armenia, but it agreed the roadmap only to remove the word "genocide"
from Obama's April 24 message (Sabah, April 27). For others, Ankara's
zigzagging shows that it is acting opportunistically, which undermines
the trust of its partners (Hurriyet Daily News, April 24).
President Gul ruled out any damage to relations with Baku due to the
roadmap, and maintained that it will serve the interests of both
Baku and Ankara. The Turkish government is attempting to convince
Azeri politicians that its efforts toward resolving its problems
with Yerevan also promote Azerbaijan's interests within international
forums (Zaman, April 24). Nonetheless, Azerbaijan's discomfort with
these developments is well known.
After noting that he was not in a position to tell Ankara how to
handle its relations with Yerevan, Azerbaijan's President Ilham
Aliyev, said during a visit to Brussels, that Baku reserved the right
to revise its policies according to the evolving realities in the
region. Referring to the conflicting news about the content of the
Turkish-Armenian roadmap deal, Aliyev added "The world, the region
and the Azeris want to know whether the Karabakh issue was removed
from the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. This is a simple question
and has a simple answer" (Cihan Haber Ajansi, April 28).
By: Saban Kardas
Jamestown Foundation
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cac he=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34918&tx_ttnew s%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=9f429ee56e
April 29 2009
On April 22, the Foreign Ministries of Turkey, Armenia and Switzerland
issued a joint announcement saying that Ankara and Yerevan had agreed
to work toward improving their relations within the framework of a
roadmap under Swiss auspices. United States' diplomats were also
closely involved in the talks which preceded the deal. Although
the decision appears as a breakthrough in resolving this long-term
dispute, significant obstacles remain before the completion of the
rapprochement.
The joint statement read as follows:
"The two parties have achieved tangible progress and mutual
understanding in this process and they have agreed on a comprehensive
framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations in a
mutually satisfactory manner. In this context, a road-map has been
identified" (www.mfa.gov.tr, April 22).
Subsequent statements from diplomatic sources clarified that no
agreement has been signed and that the parties agreed to continue
working toward fully normalizing their bilateral relations. Although
the content of the ongoing talks were not disclosed officially, the
deal is likely to include establishing diplomatic representations
in their respective capitals, gradual re-opening of the border,
Armenia's recognition of Turkey's international borders, and forming
a joint committee of historians to examine the disputed events of 1915
(Sabah, April 24).
Many observers believe that if the process can be concluded
successfully, it will not only end the long-standing enmity within
the South Caucasus, but it also will redefine the geopolitical map
of the region -helping to connect Armenia with Western interests in
the region. Therefore, the decision was welcomed by the international
community as a constructive step toward reconciliation. A statement
from the U.S. State Department commended these efforts and called on
the parties to proceed with the talks without any preconditions and
within a reasonable time frame.
Initially this was anticipated against the background of the ongoing
dialogue, which had accelerated over the past year. This was given a
renewed impetus following Turkish President Abdullah Gul's historic
visit to Yerevan in September 2008. In addition to their various
bilateral talks, the foreign ministers of both countries also met
within the context of multilateral initiatives, raising expectations
that a deal could be achieved. Earlier press reports speculated that
the two capitals had agreed on a roadmap in late March, but they were
debating the proper timing to announce this decision (EDM, March 27;
Hurriyet Daily News, March 30). After Obama's recent high profile trip
to Turkey, Turkish-Armenian reconciliation was considered imminent.
However, following Obama's visit, Ankara stepped back from its
commitment to find a solution in an effort to allay concerns in
Baku. The Turkish Prime Minister and other officials declared publicly
that they would avoid steps which might damage Azerbaijan's interests,
and Turkey would not re-open its border with Armenia unless the latter
ended its occupation of Azerbaijani territories (EDM, April 17). These
developments rendered an agreement less likely.
The announcement that the parties had held secret talks and committed
publicly to a roadmap represented a major breakthrough. Nonetheless,
there have been conflicting accounts from each side as to whether
concessions were made on preconditions to start the negotiations. The
continued mystery surrounding the content of the talks may prove an
obstacle to a final settlement. Nationalist forces and the opposition,
both within Turkey and Armenia, remain opposed to the way in which
the rapprochement is being conducted -in an absence of public
scrutiny. Secret diplomacy is the key to achieving a breakthrough
in such protracted disputes, and supporters of normalization on both
sides insist that the governments should not bow to public pressure
to abandon the process (www.ntvmsnbc.com, April 26). Nonetheless,
the widening gap between the governments' rhetoric and reality risks
undermining this controversial foreign policy.
The Armenian government came under intense domestic criticism,
and a minor coalition partner withdrew from the government. Similar
problems within Turkey have further complicated these efforts. The AKP
government proceeded with the normalization without first preparing
public opinion for such a radical decision. It has also failed to keep
the opposition informed. Turkish opposition parties are now calling
on the government to stop conducting diplomacy behind closed doors,
and inform parliament of the current standing of the talks (Ortadogu,
April 28).
Moreover, the Turkish government is criticized for failing to give
clear answers as to how the Turkish-Armenian roadmap might impact on
Azerbaijan. Apparently, Turkey proceeded with the rapprochement without
ensuring Armenia's response to Azerbaijan's demands, and this stance
contradicted Ankara's earlier statements that it would protect Baku's
interests. For some Turkish observers, this is an indication that
the government did not have a genuine desire for reconciliation with
Armenia, but it agreed the roadmap only to remove the word "genocide"
from Obama's April 24 message (Sabah, April 27). For others, Ankara's
zigzagging shows that it is acting opportunistically, which undermines
the trust of its partners (Hurriyet Daily News, April 24).
President Gul ruled out any damage to relations with Baku due to the
roadmap, and maintained that it will serve the interests of both
Baku and Ankara. The Turkish government is attempting to convince
Azeri politicians that its efforts toward resolving its problems
with Yerevan also promote Azerbaijan's interests within international
forums (Zaman, April 24). Nonetheless, Azerbaijan's discomfort with
these developments is well known.
After noting that he was not in a position to tell Ankara how to
handle its relations with Yerevan, Azerbaijan's President Ilham
Aliyev, said during a visit to Brussels, that Baku reserved the right
to revise its policies according to the evolving realities in the
region. Referring to the conflicting news about the content of the
Turkish-Armenian roadmap deal, Aliyev added "The world, the region
and the Azeris want to know whether the Karabakh issue was removed
from the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. This is a simple question
and has a simple answer" (Cihan Haber Ajansi, April 28).