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LACINER: ARMENIA IS NOT THE VICTIM, IT IS AN OCCUPYING COUNTRY
Today's Zaman
May 4 2009
Turkey
Laciner: "Due to the lack of criticism and punishment by the
international community, Armenia has continued to make the same
mistakes."
Assoc. Prof. Sedat Laciner evaluated Turkey's crucial relations
with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's role in this triangle was
also examined. He explained some important points about Azerbaijan
and Armenia.
Interview with Sedat LACINER by Gulay KILIC
- The issue of improving Turkey-Armenia relations came to the agenda
especially during Obama's visit to Turkey. What could be Obama's
contribution to the process of improving relations?
SL: "First of all, I would like to say that the issue of improving
Turkey-Armenia relations and the problems between Turkey and Azerbaijan
on this topic did not begin with Obama's term and Obama's visit
to Turkey. The dialog between Turkey and Armenia started a long
time before Obama's presidency. It has been almost 7-8 months since
Turkey's President, Abdullah Gul, visited Yerevan. Negotiations began
at the ministerial level before the President's visit. Turkey and
Armenia tried to increase visits to each other; one of the Armenian
ministers came to Turkey, and one of the Turkish ministers went
to Armenia. During these visits and negotiations, both parties
tried to identify the tasks that they have to do in order to open
the borders. Nothing at all started with Obama; however, he will
accelerate the process of negotiations."
- Armenia has not taken a positive step until today. Do you think
that Armenia will change its hard line? And how will it be possible
to change this attitude?
SL: "The world has blamed Turkey for the closed land borders
until today. Armenia claimed that Turkey and Azerbaijan, as two
Muslim countries, enclosed and tried to annihilate Armenia. The
U.S., Canada, France, and Russia have especially strong Armenian
Diasporas, including influential people in the media, universities,
and politics. At every turn, these people have looked at Armenia
as if it were the victim. However, Armenia is not the victim; on
the contrary, it is an occupying country. Armenia has been holding
a larger region than the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Karabakh is
only one part of the Armenian-occupied territories. Only Azerbaijani
people live in the rest of the Armenian-occupied territories. On the
other hand, the international community did not react to Armenia as
they reacted to Israel and Serbia. Due to this lack of criticism and
punishment by the international community, Armenia has continued to
make the same mistakes. If the U.S. and EU had put at least half as
much pressure on Armenia as they did Turkey, the land border would
already be opened today."
- Is it possible for Russia to break up the improved relations in
the region for its own sake? And what policies will Russia follow?
SL: "Russia considers the Caucasus as its backyard and regards the
region as Russian territory. Thus, Russia does not view Armenia,
Georgia, and Azerbaijan as independent states, but believes they will
one day come under Russian jurisdiction. In this sense, Russia has
divided Georgia in three parts: Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Georgia. It is
claimed that Russia has plans to divide Cevahiti, where the majority
of the Armenian people live. Armenia could never get rid of Russia's
influence. The Armenian occupation of Karabakh was possible due
to Russia's military support. It is obvious that Russia influenced
the victory of Kocharyan over Levon Ter-Petrossian in the Armenian
elections. Moreover, Russia already has captured the Armenian economy;
in particular, almost the entire energy sector is in Russian hands.
Azerbaijan is one of the countries attracting Russia's influence in the
region. Azerbaijan is intensely hostile toward Russia for its support
of Armenia on the Karabakh issue. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is
one of the countries in which Turkish nationalism is very strong. The
languages of the two countries are so similar that people don't need
a translator. Russia could not block the positive environment between
these two countries because of their close historical, cultural,
and social ties.
However, Baku became frightened when the Georgia-Russia war broke
out because there were some disruptions in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline. Baku saw that Turkey and the U.S. could not protect Georgia
against Russia. Moreover, Azerbaijan realized that it was too risky
to only depend on the Turkey-Georgia line and that improved relations
with Russia were necessary.
Russia also took advantage of this environment, using
pro-Russian bureaucrats in Azerbaijan to propagandize against
Turkey. Unfortunately, Turkey could not read this process accurately
enough. When the process to normalize Armenia and Turkey relations
began, the anti-Turkish lobby appeared in Azerbaijan. In the last
6-7 months the lobby has become more outspoken in Azerbaijan,
loudly expressing that Turkey had agreed with Armenia and stabbed
Azerbaijan in the back. Pro-Russian groups in Azerbaijan decided
to close all Turkish enterprises, civil society organizations, and
schools in Azerbaijan a few months ago; some Azerbaijani government
officials and governors were also involved in this plot. These secret
decisions will be applied, and Turkish institutions and organizations
will be expelled from Azerbaijan. Moreover, these pro-Russian groups
declared war against the Turkish language of Turkey. They try to limit
Turkish TV series, instead promoting Russian TV programs. Recently,
most of the discomfort emerging in Azerbaijan is based on Russia. In
my opinion, Aliev is in desperate straits because of pressure from
the Russian lobby."
- Do you think that if the relationship between Armenia and the
Armenian Diaspora is breaking off, the process will normalize? Or is
breaking off the relationship a fantasy?
SL: "Armenia is an economically poor country with a population of less
than 3 million. The population of the Armenian Diaspora, however, is
about twice the population of Armenia. Moreover, Diaspora Armenians
are wealthier than the Armenian government. There is an imbalance. We
can say that if Turkey had 140 million abroad in the Turkish Diaspora,
and if they were more economically and intellectually more powerful
than the Turks in Turkey, then Turkish politics would be controlled by
the Turkish Diaspora. Armenia Armenians want to open the land borders
and normalize relations with Turkey as soon as possible. However,
Diaspora Armenians struggle to continue the problems between Turks and
Armenians forever, since the identity of Diaspora Armenians is built
on problems with Turkey. They think that if the problems are removed,
their identity will be assimilated. If the dependence between Armenia
and Diaspora can be broken, problems could be solved quickly, but
this is very difficult. Diaspora Armenians are even able to vote in
Armenian elections. There is an emotional and an irrational dimension
in Armenian politics that is the most difficult point for Turkey. The
emotional dimension depends on Diaspora Armenians. Because of this,
the negotiations between the two countries have been carried out in
secret. If open negotiations continue, the Armenian government might
collapse. Tashnaks especially think that even establishing dialogue
with Turkey is a betrayal to Armenia."
Today's Zaman
May 4 2009
Turkey
Laciner: "Due to the lack of criticism and punishment by the
international community, Armenia has continued to make the same
mistakes."
Assoc. Prof. Sedat Laciner evaluated Turkey's crucial relations
with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's role in this triangle was
also examined. He explained some important points about Azerbaijan
and Armenia.
Interview with Sedat LACINER by Gulay KILIC
- The issue of improving Turkey-Armenia relations came to the agenda
especially during Obama's visit to Turkey. What could be Obama's
contribution to the process of improving relations?
SL: "First of all, I would like to say that the issue of improving
Turkey-Armenia relations and the problems between Turkey and Azerbaijan
on this topic did not begin with Obama's term and Obama's visit
to Turkey. The dialog between Turkey and Armenia started a long
time before Obama's presidency. It has been almost 7-8 months since
Turkey's President, Abdullah Gul, visited Yerevan. Negotiations began
at the ministerial level before the President's visit. Turkey and
Armenia tried to increase visits to each other; one of the Armenian
ministers came to Turkey, and one of the Turkish ministers went
to Armenia. During these visits and negotiations, both parties
tried to identify the tasks that they have to do in order to open
the borders. Nothing at all started with Obama; however, he will
accelerate the process of negotiations."
- Armenia has not taken a positive step until today. Do you think
that Armenia will change its hard line? And how will it be possible
to change this attitude?
SL: "The world has blamed Turkey for the closed land borders
until today. Armenia claimed that Turkey and Azerbaijan, as two
Muslim countries, enclosed and tried to annihilate Armenia. The
U.S., Canada, France, and Russia have especially strong Armenian
Diasporas, including influential people in the media, universities,
and politics. At every turn, these people have looked at Armenia
as if it were the victim. However, Armenia is not the victim; on
the contrary, it is an occupying country. Armenia has been holding
a larger region than the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Karabakh is
only one part of the Armenian-occupied territories. Only Azerbaijani
people live in the rest of the Armenian-occupied territories. On the
other hand, the international community did not react to Armenia as
they reacted to Israel and Serbia. Due to this lack of criticism and
punishment by the international community, Armenia has continued to
make the same mistakes. If the U.S. and EU had put at least half as
much pressure on Armenia as they did Turkey, the land border would
already be opened today."
- Is it possible for Russia to break up the improved relations in
the region for its own sake? And what policies will Russia follow?
SL: "Russia considers the Caucasus as its backyard and regards the
region as Russian territory. Thus, Russia does not view Armenia,
Georgia, and Azerbaijan as independent states, but believes they will
one day come under Russian jurisdiction. In this sense, Russia has
divided Georgia in three parts: Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Georgia. It is
claimed that Russia has plans to divide Cevahiti, where the majority
of the Armenian people live. Armenia could never get rid of Russia's
influence. The Armenian occupation of Karabakh was possible due
to Russia's military support. It is obvious that Russia influenced
the victory of Kocharyan over Levon Ter-Petrossian in the Armenian
elections. Moreover, Russia already has captured the Armenian economy;
in particular, almost the entire energy sector is in Russian hands.
Azerbaijan is one of the countries attracting Russia's influence in the
region. Azerbaijan is intensely hostile toward Russia for its support
of Armenia on the Karabakh issue. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is
one of the countries in which Turkish nationalism is very strong. The
languages of the two countries are so similar that people don't need
a translator. Russia could not block the positive environment between
these two countries because of their close historical, cultural,
and social ties.
However, Baku became frightened when the Georgia-Russia war broke
out because there were some disruptions in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline. Baku saw that Turkey and the U.S. could not protect Georgia
against Russia. Moreover, Azerbaijan realized that it was too risky
to only depend on the Turkey-Georgia line and that improved relations
with Russia were necessary.
Russia also took advantage of this environment, using
pro-Russian bureaucrats in Azerbaijan to propagandize against
Turkey. Unfortunately, Turkey could not read this process accurately
enough. When the process to normalize Armenia and Turkey relations
began, the anti-Turkish lobby appeared in Azerbaijan. In the last
6-7 months the lobby has become more outspoken in Azerbaijan,
loudly expressing that Turkey had agreed with Armenia and stabbed
Azerbaijan in the back. Pro-Russian groups in Azerbaijan decided
to close all Turkish enterprises, civil society organizations, and
schools in Azerbaijan a few months ago; some Azerbaijani government
officials and governors were also involved in this plot. These secret
decisions will be applied, and Turkish institutions and organizations
will be expelled from Azerbaijan. Moreover, these pro-Russian groups
declared war against the Turkish language of Turkey. They try to limit
Turkish TV series, instead promoting Russian TV programs. Recently,
most of the discomfort emerging in Azerbaijan is based on Russia. In
my opinion, Aliev is in desperate straits because of pressure from
the Russian lobby."
- Do you think that if the relationship between Armenia and the
Armenian Diaspora is breaking off, the process will normalize? Or is
breaking off the relationship a fantasy?
SL: "Armenia is an economically poor country with a population of less
than 3 million. The population of the Armenian Diaspora, however, is
about twice the population of Armenia. Moreover, Diaspora Armenians
are wealthier than the Armenian government. There is an imbalance. We
can say that if Turkey had 140 million abroad in the Turkish Diaspora,
and if they were more economically and intellectually more powerful
than the Turks in Turkey, then Turkish politics would be controlled by
the Turkish Diaspora. Armenia Armenians want to open the land borders
and normalize relations with Turkey as soon as possible. However,
Diaspora Armenians struggle to continue the problems between Turks and
Armenians forever, since the identity of Diaspora Armenians is built
on problems with Turkey. They think that if the problems are removed,
their identity will be assimilated. If the dependence between Armenia
and Diaspora can be broken, problems could be solved quickly, but
this is very difficult. Diaspora Armenians are even able to vote in
Armenian elections. There is an emotional and an irrational dimension
in Armenian politics that is the most difficult point for Turkey. The
emotional dimension depends on Diaspora Armenians. Because of this,
the negotiations between the two countries have been carried out in
secret. If open negotiations continue, the Armenian government might
collapse. Tashnaks especially think that even establishing dialogue
with Turkey is a betrayal to Armenia."