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AZERBAIJAN FEARS THE RUSSIAN-TURKISH ALLIANCE
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
02.05.2009 GMT+04:00
Not accidentally did Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US
Department of State point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for
transferring militants and weapons.
If active diplomacy consists in regular meetings and visits, one
could say that Russia, USA and Europe are now intently watching the
region. It is not surprising, however, since the desire of Europe
to get rid of the energy dependence on Russia, the appearance of
Turkey claiming to the status of a serious regional power in the
light of the continuous disagreements of world powers with Iran,
and the illusive hopes for signing the Armenian-Turkish agreement
make the arising situation even more intriguing.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan's chief
foreign policy advisor, as foreign minister, replacing Ali Babacan
also indicates the seriousness of Turkey's intentions to seize the
opportunity and gain a foothold in the region, because nothing comes
of the EU yet. Davutoglu has already stated that Turkey should play a
more dynamic role in the Near East and the Balkans, "but her relations
with the West will remain her foreign policy priorities".
"Turkey is not a country to just react to crises, it must effectively
prevent them. It concerns the role of Turkey in NATO, intermediary
efforts between Israel and Arab countries and settlement of conflicts
in the Caucasus," underlined Davutoglu, adding that the European
Union and NATO are the most important components in the policy of
establishing a balance between security and stability. As a matter of
principle, Ali Babacan cannot be considered a bad foreign minister, but
Erdogan needed a more serious diplomat and not an economist like the
ex-minister. Nevertheless, Babacan remained in the Ministry as Deputy
Minister for Economy. Quite possibly he will again be a negotiator
between Turkey and the European Union together with Egemen BagıÅ~_.
Against this background the consolidation of Russian-Turkish
political-economic alliance does not seem that unexpected. By the way,
this alliance may not be at all directed against Armenia, as it may
seem at first glance, but against Azerbaijan. Not accidentally did
Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US Department of State
point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for transferring militants
and weapons. Russia and Turkey have always shared common interests
in the Caucasus, so that Erdogan's visit is just a business meeting,
in the course of which the sides will attempt to work out a certain
common energy policy, directed towards strengthening the dominant
role of Moscow and Ankara in the region. And it's utterly logical
that under such circumstances, in spite of Ilham Aliyev's rather bold
statements, Azerbaijan should not even hope for a bright future. The
Nabucco project can do without the Azerbaijani gas, but it can never
go without the gas from Turkmenistan or Russia. Europe is not quite
pleased at such course of events, but in this way she pays for the
unwillingness she displayed towards accepting Turkey into the European
Union. Most likely, Brussels will pay the ransom.
As far as Armenia or her diplomatic relations with Turkey is concerned,
as we have been mentioning, little depends on the sides in this
matter. Without pressure, neither Turkey nor Armenia will be able to
make the decision, on which the USA, Russia and the European Union
insist. Moreover, it is still quite impenetrable, who after all plays
first fiddle in the "project of the century" - Russia or the USA.
The USA views the progress in the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish
relations as one of the foreign policy achievements of President
Obama's hundred-day term of office. According to Michael Hammer,
Official representative of the White House National Security
Council, the White House "is encouraged by recent improvements in
the Armenian-Turkish relations and they must be maintained by all
means." In his words, Turkey is an important strategic partner and
ally of the USA. "We believe that now there is a good chance to
advance. That was why the US President found it necessary to visit
Turkey. We hope for an open dialogue and exchange of opinions with
the Turkish Government," declared the White House representative.
It is possible to foresee a certain scenario of the Armenian-Turkish
negotiations development process. In an optimistic view. the boundary
is opened before the football match between Turkey and Armenia,
Foreign Ministers of the two countries sign a protocol about the
establishment of diplomatic relations, followed by negotiations on the
notorious "road map", which, by the way, no one has seen and which,
as the RA MFA assures, has never been mentioned. In a pessimistic
view, Armenia is forced to recognize the Kars agreement with all
the resultant consequences - renunciation of the Armenian Genocide
recognition and compensation for the lost homeland, abrupt weakening,
not to mention fall of national security. The issue of Nagorno Karabakh
drops off automatically... Alas, there is not a third version possible.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
02.05.2009 GMT+04:00
Not accidentally did Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US
Department of State point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for
transferring militants and weapons.
If active diplomacy consists in regular meetings and visits, one
could say that Russia, USA and Europe are now intently watching the
region. It is not surprising, however, since the desire of Europe
to get rid of the energy dependence on Russia, the appearance of
Turkey claiming to the status of a serious regional power in the
light of the continuous disagreements of world powers with Iran,
and the illusive hopes for signing the Armenian-Turkish agreement
make the arising situation even more intriguing.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan's chief
foreign policy advisor, as foreign minister, replacing Ali Babacan
also indicates the seriousness of Turkey's intentions to seize the
opportunity and gain a foothold in the region, because nothing comes
of the EU yet. Davutoglu has already stated that Turkey should play a
more dynamic role in the Near East and the Balkans, "but her relations
with the West will remain her foreign policy priorities".
"Turkey is not a country to just react to crises, it must effectively
prevent them. It concerns the role of Turkey in NATO, intermediary
efforts between Israel and Arab countries and settlement of conflicts
in the Caucasus," underlined Davutoglu, adding that the European
Union and NATO are the most important components in the policy of
establishing a balance between security and stability. As a matter of
principle, Ali Babacan cannot be considered a bad foreign minister, but
Erdogan needed a more serious diplomat and not an economist like the
ex-minister. Nevertheless, Babacan remained in the Ministry as Deputy
Minister for Economy. Quite possibly he will again be a negotiator
between Turkey and the European Union together with Egemen BagıÅ~_.
Against this background the consolidation of Russian-Turkish
political-economic alliance does not seem that unexpected. By the way,
this alliance may not be at all directed against Armenia, as it may
seem at first glance, but against Azerbaijan. Not accidentally did
Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US Department of State
point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for transferring militants
and weapons. Russia and Turkey have always shared common interests
in the Caucasus, so that Erdogan's visit is just a business meeting,
in the course of which the sides will attempt to work out a certain
common energy policy, directed towards strengthening the dominant
role of Moscow and Ankara in the region. And it's utterly logical
that under such circumstances, in spite of Ilham Aliyev's rather bold
statements, Azerbaijan should not even hope for a bright future. The
Nabucco project can do without the Azerbaijani gas, but it can never
go without the gas from Turkmenistan or Russia. Europe is not quite
pleased at such course of events, but in this way she pays for the
unwillingness she displayed towards accepting Turkey into the European
Union. Most likely, Brussels will pay the ransom.
As far as Armenia or her diplomatic relations with Turkey is concerned,
as we have been mentioning, little depends on the sides in this
matter. Without pressure, neither Turkey nor Armenia will be able to
make the decision, on which the USA, Russia and the European Union
insist. Moreover, it is still quite impenetrable, who after all plays
first fiddle in the "project of the century" - Russia or the USA.
The USA views the progress in the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish
relations as one of the foreign policy achievements of President
Obama's hundred-day term of office. According to Michael Hammer,
Official representative of the White House National Security
Council, the White House "is encouraged by recent improvements in
the Armenian-Turkish relations and they must be maintained by all
means." In his words, Turkey is an important strategic partner and
ally of the USA. "We believe that now there is a good chance to
advance. That was why the US President found it necessary to visit
Turkey. We hope for an open dialogue and exchange of opinions with
the Turkish Government," declared the White House representative.
It is possible to foresee a certain scenario of the Armenian-Turkish
negotiations development process. In an optimistic view. the boundary
is opened before the football match between Turkey and Armenia,
Foreign Ministers of the two countries sign a protocol about the
establishment of diplomatic relations, followed by negotiations on the
notorious "road map", which, by the way, no one has seen and which,
as the RA MFA assures, has never been mentioned. In a pessimistic
view, Armenia is forced to recognize the Kars agreement with all
the resultant consequences - renunciation of the Armenian Genocide
recognition and compensation for the lost homeland, abrupt weakening,
not to mention fall of national security. The issue of Nagorno Karabakh
drops off automatically... Alas, there is not a third version possible.