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  • BAKU: Mediators See Major Progress Following Talks

    MEDIATORS SEE MAJOR PROGRESS FOLLOWING TALKS

    AzerNews Weekly
    May 13 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Various reports about Thursday`s round of talks on settling the Upper
    (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict between the Azerbaijani and Armenian
    presidents in Prague have caused observers to conclude that the
    discussions were extremely tense but the sides achieved rapprochement
    on numerous key issues regarding the peace process. Nonetheless,
    the fact that the reports are differently-worded, depending on the
    source of information and, at times, even conflicting, makes it rather
    challenging to express an unequivocal opinion about the outcome.

    Following the meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian,
    the OSCE mediators brokering the conflict settlement told the press
    that the talks were constructive and their outcomes were promising. The
    co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Yury Merzlyakov of Russia,
    Bernard Fassier of France, and Matthew Bryza of the United States -
    said in a statement that "significant progress" had been achieved in
    narrowing the differences between the parties and that the discussions
    "had brought the sides closer to a breakthrough."

    "The presidents welcomed the co-chairs` plan to further intensify
    their shuttle diplomacy to assemble all the elements required for a
    breakthrough," said the joint statement, released after the mediators
    organized a meeting of Presidents Aliyev and Sarkisian at the residence
    of the US ambassador in Prague.

    "The co-chairs look forward to their next trip to the region and
    to prepare a further summit, as proposed to the presidents, in
    St. Petersburg [on the sidelines of an informal CIS summit] in early
    June. The co-chairs expect that these coming meetings will allow for
    the concrete realization of a breakthrough on the Basic Principles
    by the end of the year," noted the joint statement, which was posted
    on the OSCE`s website.

    The Basic Principles for a negotiated settlement of the long-standing
    dispute were submitted by the mediators to Baku and Yerevan in the
    Spanish capital Madrid in November 2007. The principles include
    determination of the final status of Upper Garabagh, an Azerbaijani
    region currently under Armenian occupation, through a nationwide poll
    to be conducted during the final stage of the peace process.

    This is possible after confidence is built between the sides,
    including the gradual pullout of Armenian armed forces from the
    occupied Azerbaijani territories, pledges on non-use of force, the
    return of Azerbaijani refugees displaced by the armed conflict in
    the early 1990s, and the resumption of trade and communications. The
    Basic Principles represent the outcome of numerous meetings between
    the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers launched in the Czech
    capital in 2004 and dubbed the "Prague process."

    Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with the
    signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy
    Upper Garabagh and seven other Azerbaijani districts in defiance of
    international law. Azerbaijan is ready to grant the region the status
    of a high autonomy within its territorial integrity, while Armenia
    claims it should be granted independence.

    US co-chair Bryza told Radio Liberty that the two countries` presidents
    had agreed to the main ideas of a Garabagh settlement.

    "Throughout my co-chairmanship in the Minsk Group, this meeting
    was the most substantial one in terms of the essence of the issues
    being discussed. Progress has been achieved in the past as well. But
    this time - and the other co-chairmen agreed with me on that --
    the presidents agreed on the main ideas of the complicated concept
    of the basic settlement principles. In other words, the presidents
    recommended that the co-chairs, jointly with the foreign ministers,
    finalize work on detailing these ideas."

    At the same time, the diplomat admitted that hard work on certain
    details is still ahead to achieve a final agreement, as the two leaders
    are adhering to a view that "so long as everything has not been agreed,
    nothing is considered to have been agreed."

    Further, Bryza emphasized that the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents
    are ready for mutual compromises. This, in his opinion, is clear from
    their messages, which aim to shape public opinion about the conflict
    resolution in their countries.

    The Aliyev-Sarkisian talks lasted two and a half hours, though
    previous meetings usually took three to four hours. This presidential
    meeting was attended by Foreign Ministers Elmar Mammadyarov and
    Eduard Nalbandian, the MG co-chairs, as well as Andrjej Kasprzyk,
    the OSCE chairman`s special envoy. The broad talks were followed by
    one-on-one discussions.

    It is indicative that, amid outright optimism by the mediators,
    a split has been observed in the conflicting sides` statements
    regarding the outcome of the Prague talks. Yerevan believes that
    their positions have drawn closer after the presidential meeting,
    while Baku said no progress had been achieved.

    "The presidents` meeting in Prague was prolific and brought the
    positions of the sides closer on separate provisions of the Garabagh
    settlement," the Armenian presidential statement claimed.

    However, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov told
    journalists that "unfortunately, no advances were made at the meeting
    of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents."

    "I can`t say that any advances were achieved, and talks must be
    continued. Discussions were held on complicated issues in Prague
    but, unfortunately, Armenia, again, failed to be constructive,"
    said Mammadyarov.

    Novruz Mammadov, head of the Azerbaijan President`s Office
    international relations department, has strongly criticized the
    co-chairs, blaming them for spreading false information about the
    current state of peace talks. He said Yerevan was very non-constructive
    during the last presidential meeting.

    "The Armenian side was unwilling to take even a step toward a
    conflict settlement and once again demonstrated that it had claims
    to Azerbaijani territories. Nonetheless, despite the lack of mutual
    agreement, the co-chairs issued a statement supporting the position
    of the Armenian leader, and, it turns out, that of their own, without
    any prior consultations with the Azerbaijani president. Providing
    erroneous information to the US president and secretary of state,
    and the leaders of other states, they indicated that peace talks are
    allegedly going very well and the positions of the sides are drawing
    closer," Mammadov said.

    "We don`t understand what the purpose of saying all this is. It seems
    to me that all this once again shows that bias toward aggressor Armenia
    persists and the process of defending its interests continues. On the
    other hand, the co-chairs are interested in this process stalling,
    for them to come and go on official trips and fulfill their duties,
    as if this is their career. Or else, it could be that Mathew Bryza
    [the US MG co-chairman], himself, has an interest in advancing his
    career, his job, and so forth, by misinforming Hillary Clinton and
    Barack Obama. That`s the only presumption that comes to my mind."

    According to sources close to diplomatic circles, the two presidents`
    talks proceeded in a very complex environment, as Yerevan failed to
    display flexibility and, on the contrary, toughened its position.

    During the talks, the Armenian side again put forth the formula for
    a peace process that had been discussed two years ago and rejected
    by Azerbaijan. The sources did not elaborate which formula was in
    question, but one may presume that it pertains to the determination
    of Garabagh`s status through a referendum among the current residents
    of the region, i.e. Armenians.

    French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has confirmed that the latest
    round of presidential talks proceeded in a complicated manner. The
    Russian Echo Moskvi radio station quoted Kouchner as saying that a
    number of misunderstandings remain between the conflicting sides.

    "Each side is going its own way and reacts to the same pictures
    differently. But this should not be a discouragement, as there is a
    very long road ahead between Aliyev and Sarkisian."

    Some Azerbaijani media have linked Yerevan`s toughening its stance
    during the Prague talks with the recent Armenia-Turkey dialog. The
    Armenian leadership`s stance on the Garabagh problem reportedly became
    harsher after it had agreed upon a "roadmap" with Turkey, Azerbaijan`s
    ally, with which it also faces long-standing tensions. This toughening,
    as Azerbaijan has pointed out, is adversely affecting the peace
    process.

    Of note, the Turkish media, which has been widely covering the
    Prague meeting reported that, on the contrary, the Garabagh talks
    made considerable progress and that the Ankara-Yerevan dialog is
    moving the parties towards resolving the conflict.

    The reports are based upon the meetings held by US mediator Bryza with
    the Turkish foreign minister and deputy minister in Prague. Thus, the
    co-chairman had informed Turkish diplomats about the course of Garabagh
    talks following the Aliyev-Sarkisian meeting, while officials in Ankara
    apparently leaked some information to the press after the meeting.

    The Turkish reports suggest that the presidential meeting, despite
    its being tense, was generally a round of talks that fostered some
    rapprochement in the positions of Baku and Yerevan. Thus, the parties
    reportedly considered, while in the Czech Republic, the future status
    of Upper Garabagh, which has so far been one of the toughest sticking
    points in the peace process. The reports claimed that the Azerbaijani
    president had, for the first time, agreed to launch discussions on
    how the status of the region will be determined. At the same time,
    it was specifically emphasized that Baku did not mention the notion
    of a referendum during the talks.

    The Armenian president, in turn, agreed that after occupation of the
    regions around Upper Garabagh ends, the status-quo will be maintained
    in the region.

    At the same time, Yerevan agreed to withdraw from five of seven
    Azerbaijani districts it occupies in the initial stage and to pull
    out of Kalbajar, another occupied region, five years after a peace
    accord is reached.

    As for Lachin, the remaining district around Upper Garabagh, this is
    one of the two issues that are awaiting their solution in the course of
    negotiations. This refers to an overland corridor that is to be created
    to link Upper Garabagh with Armenian territory through Lachin. The
    reports said that during further stages of the negotiating process
    the parties are to strike a common ground on the status of the Lachin
    corridor, its parameters and security. Further, the final and key part
    of peace talks is to take place and a schedule is to be set for the
    pullout of Armenian troops from the regions adjacent to Upper Garabagh
    and the return of the displaced Azerbaijanis to their native lands.
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