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"MAINDORF-2" IN ST. PETERSBURG
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
23.05.2009 GMT+04:00
Most likely in Saint Petersburg there will be signed just another
transient document, meant for the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies.
On June 6 at the non-formal CIS summit in Saint Petersburg there
will be held another meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Judging by the increasing number of newspaper reports,
the parties interested in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation
expect any kind of breakthrough from the summit. The pressure on
Armenia and Azerbaijan is growing in all directions. Above all, it
is Russia that is interested in achieving any kind of result, as she
is eager to repeat the "success" of the Maindorf Declaration. Most
likely the Saint Petersburg meeting will also be completed by signing
a certain so-called Memorandum of Intentions on Conflict Regulation.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Let us first of all note that the West is now
playing a waiting game rather than occupying an active position;
Bryza's statements are, naturally, not counted. Europe is waiting
for Armenian's response to Moscow's pressure, after which she can
dictate her rules for the game. In a broad sense, Yerevan cannot be
said to be the loser but neither is it appropriate to expect special
dividends. Azerbaijan is in no better position - in exchange for
waiver of Nabucco, Moscow will promise her nothing more but one or
two regions in the security zone. Still a pair of months ago political
scientist Leyla Aliyeva (Ilham Aliyev's daughter) dropped a remark that
Azerbaijan can obtain only two regions at best... Certainly she knows
what she says. The only question is which two regions she meant. If
we use the method of exclusion, we stop at Fizuli and Cebrail. But
here the factor of Iran comes forth. The thing is that right in these
regions the latter is building hydroelectric power plants. We'll not
even speak of the other regions as they are of military-strategic
significance and their handing would undoubtedly mean losing the
Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
In exchange, Yerevan might be proposed a recognized status of the NKR,
to which Baku gives no consent. Although, who knows, the majority
of statements of the Azerbaijani President are directed to his own
people and hardly can they be received seriously at least by the
co-chair countries.
However, there is one circumstance to be considered. A bulk of false
information has been thrown into the region recently, misrepresenting
the real state of affairs. It must have required minimal efforts taking
into account the non-professionalism of media outlets of all the South
Caucasian countries, and it can be deduced that the throw-in has been
consciously calculated to worsen the relations between the countries,
of course if further worsening is possible. Rumours about certain
documents "almost ready to be signed" are directed to accelerating
the repartition process of the existing boundaries, and it may all be
done much earlier than we expect. The Caucasian society lives chiefly
on mutually excluding rumours and fantasies. Against this background
it is most easy to start a diplomatic war, which can easily develop
into a real one as soon as all the interested parties are tired of
convincing Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran to come to a friendly
agreement. Energy is the core of everything - the rest is secondary. In
this regard the Saint Petersburg summit, in spite of the loads of
empty phrases, will be dedicated to the gas pipe, which Russia is
eager to monopolize. And if Moscow succeeds in 'breaking' Armenia,
the issue of Nabucco can be considered almost settled. However, no
matter how unpleasant it may be for Russia, the USA has the last word.
Thus, most likely in Saint Petersburg there will be signed just
another transient document, meant for the Armenian and Azerbaijani
societies and likely to be proofread during the visit of the US
President to Moscow. If Medvedev and Obama come to an agreement on
redistribution of influence spheres without bloodshed, the regulation
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be said to be once again postponed
till better time. The only thing that can shuffle the maps is the
probable normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations contrary to the
Russian scenario.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
23.05.2009 GMT+04:00
Most likely in Saint Petersburg there will be signed just another
transient document, meant for the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies.
On June 6 at the non-formal CIS summit in Saint Petersburg there
will be held another meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Judging by the increasing number of newspaper reports,
the parties interested in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation
expect any kind of breakthrough from the summit. The pressure on
Armenia and Azerbaijan is growing in all directions. Above all, it
is Russia that is interested in achieving any kind of result, as she
is eager to repeat the "success" of the Maindorf Declaration. Most
likely the Saint Petersburg meeting will also be completed by signing
a certain so-called Memorandum of Intentions on Conflict Regulation.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Let us first of all note that the West is now
playing a waiting game rather than occupying an active position;
Bryza's statements are, naturally, not counted. Europe is waiting
for Armenian's response to Moscow's pressure, after which she can
dictate her rules for the game. In a broad sense, Yerevan cannot be
said to be the loser but neither is it appropriate to expect special
dividends. Azerbaijan is in no better position - in exchange for
waiver of Nabucco, Moscow will promise her nothing more but one or
two regions in the security zone. Still a pair of months ago political
scientist Leyla Aliyeva (Ilham Aliyev's daughter) dropped a remark that
Azerbaijan can obtain only two regions at best... Certainly she knows
what she says. The only question is which two regions she meant. If
we use the method of exclusion, we stop at Fizuli and Cebrail. But
here the factor of Iran comes forth. The thing is that right in these
regions the latter is building hydroelectric power plants. We'll not
even speak of the other regions as they are of military-strategic
significance and their handing would undoubtedly mean losing the
Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
In exchange, Yerevan might be proposed a recognized status of the NKR,
to which Baku gives no consent. Although, who knows, the majority
of statements of the Azerbaijani President are directed to his own
people and hardly can they be received seriously at least by the
co-chair countries.
However, there is one circumstance to be considered. A bulk of false
information has been thrown into the region recently, misrepresenting
the real state of affairs. It must have required minimal efforts taking
into account the non-professionalism of media outlets of all the South
Caucasian countries, and it can be deduced that the throw-in has been
consciously calculated to worsen the relations between the countries,
of course if further worsening is possible. Rumours about certain
documents "almost ready to be signed" are directed to accelerating
the repartition process of the existing boundaries, and it may all be
done much earlier than we expect. The Caucasian society lives chiefly
on mutually excluding rumours and fantasies. Against this background
it is most easy to start a diplomatic war, which can easily develop
into a real one as soon as all the interested parties are tired of
convincing Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran to come to a friendly
agreement. Energy is the core of everything - the rest is secondary. In
this regard the Saint Petersburg summit, in spite of the loads of
empty phrases, will be dedicated to the gas pipe, which Russia is
eager to monopolize. And if Moscow succeeds in 'breaking' Armenia,
the issue of Nabucco can be considered almost settled. However, no
matter how unpleasant it may be for Russia, the USA has the last word.
Thus, most likely in Saint Petersburg there will be signed just
another transient document, meant for the Armenian and Azerbaijani
societies and likely to be proofread during the visit of the US
President to Moscow. If Medvedev and Obama come to an agreement on
redistribution of influence spheres without bloodshed, the regulation
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be said to be once again postponed
till better time. The only thing that can shuffle the maps is the
probable normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations contrary to the
Russian scenario.