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BAKU: Russia May Win Out As Armenia And Turkey Restore Ties: Trend N

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  • BAKU: Russia May Win Out As Armenia And Turkey Restore Ties: Trend N

    RUSSIA MAY WIN OUT AS ARMENIA AND TURKEY RESTORE TIES: TREND NEWS COMMENTATOR

    Trend
    Nov 3 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Commentator of Trend News European Desk, Elmira Tariverdiyeva

    The recent establishment of diplomatic ties between Armenia and Turkey
    will not only affect the interests of these two countries. This process
    stretches far beyond the region, as restoring these relations are
    important for Ankara and Yerevan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and also
    the West.

    But perhaps the international community is most curious about Russia's
    attitude about these processes, as one of the most interested regional
    players in the South Caucasus.

    Moscow always played the role of Yerevan's key ally. The Russia-Armenia
    strategic partnership developed due to a historic friendship between
    the two Christian peoples. Moscow considers Armenia a major ally and
    partner in the South Caucasus, especially after the August events in
    Georgia, when Russia cut off all diplomatic relations with Tbilisi.

    Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has always maintained political balance, sharing
    congenial relations with all countries in the region, Russia and the
    West, and historically preferring Turkey as an ally.

    The recent history of cooperation between Russia and Armenia dates back
    to 1992 when the Russian and Armenian presidents signed a treaty on the
    legal status of the Russian armed forces in Armenia. In March 1995,
    the two countries signed a treaty on stationing Russia's military
    base in the country. Since 1992, Armenia and Russia have also joined
    the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

    Russia has repeatedly provided financial assistance to Yerevan.

    Armenia has been in an economic blockade since 1993 when Turkey
    followed Azerbaijan's example and closed its borders with the country.

    Russia also boasts one of the largest and most influential Armenian
    Diasporas in the world.

    However, the establishment of diplomatic ties between Armenia and
    Turkey today is rapidly changing the geopolitical configuration of the
    South Caucasus. Many observers believe Russia may lose its influence
    in Armenia as open borders with Turkey will make the country less
    economically dependent on Moscow.

    Russia, though, will actually benefit from the renewed diplomatic ties.

    Armenia will never trust Turkey as much as Moscow. History's ghosts
    will haunt Ankara-Yerevan bilateral relations - more specifically
    centuries of Western Armenia being a part of the Ottoman Empire and
    the so-called "genocide" in 1915.

    Recent history is also full of unpleasant memories.

    During the active military phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
    Turkey clearly sided with Azerbaijan, which was the reason why it
    closed its borders with Armenia.

    Russian businesses, which filled a serious gap in the Armenian economy
    at the time, are now so firmly rooted in the country's economy that
    Turkish businessmen will not be able to compete. After the opening of
    the borders, Turkish business in Armenia will be more entrepreneurial
    in spirit than Russia's large-scale projects.

    However, on the other hand, Turkey's large and streamlined economy
    will defeat the need to keep Russia as a constant donor.

    Russia's investments in Armenia's small and medium enterprises need
    to pay off quickly as the border opens between Armenia and Turkey to
    keep the local population satisfied.

    Another positive outcome for Moscow is that many Armenian migrants
    in Russia will relocate to their homeland or Turkey after the border
    opens.

    On the other hand, the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties may cool
    relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia will take advantage
    of this situation to improve its relations with Baku.

    On Oct. 28, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a meeting with
    members of the Turkish Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs
    touched on the Ankara-Yerevan protocols. The Azerbaijani leader said
    that part of Azerbaijan's lands have been under Armenian occupation
    for nearly 20 years and Armenia pursued a policy of genocide
    and ethnic cleansing in these areas. Therefore, the Azerbaijani
    society's sensitive approach to relations with Armenia should be
    assessed properly. A major cause of discontent in Azerbaijan is the
    assumption that by opening the Turkish-Armenian border, Armenia will
    no longer suffer from a severe economic crisis and be able to stiffen
    its position in the Nagorno-Karabakh talks, Aliyev said.

    Fearing that opening the border may negatively affect the
    Nagorno-Karabakh talks, Azerbaijan may begin to see Moscow as an
    important regional partner.

    It is obvious that Russia needs Azerbaijan as a key strategic partner
    in the South Caucasus, as the geopolitical center of the region and
    a country rich in energy resources.

    Russia's Gazprom has already offered to buy Azerbaijani gas at a
    price three times higher than the $120 per thousand cubic meters which
    Turkey pays for the energy. Azerbaijan has also signed a contract to
    supply Russia with at least 500 million cubic meters of gas per year.

    The upper bracket of supply is not restricted, and their volume will
    increase as gas production grows in Azerbaijan.

    It seems that Russia can acquire a strategic regional partner in
    the region without losing its long-standing historic ally, and will
    economically gain much from the establishment of Ankara-Yerevan ties.
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