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  • Russia Has Extensive Interests In South Caucasus

    "RUSSIA HAS EXTENSIVE INTERESTS IN SOUTH CAUCASUS"
    BYLINE: Ivan Sukhov

    WPS Agency
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    November 6, 2009 Friday
    Russia

    HIGHLIGHT: PETER SEMNEBY: RUSSIA'S BEHAVIOR SHOWS THAT IT EXPECTS
    CHANGES IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS; An interview with EU Special
    Representative for South Caucasus Peter Semneby.

    Turkey and Armenia signed protocols on diplomatic relations
    establishment in Zurich, Switzerland, on October 10. Here is an
    interview with EU Special Representative for South Caucasus Peter
    Semneby on what effect the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement will have
    on its participants themselves and their neighbors.

    Question: Moscow's comments on the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement are
    quite favorable even though the impression is that this rapprochement
    will reduce Russian clout with the South Caucasus to a certain extent.

    And what is your opinion of the process in question?

    Peter Semneby: The situation with the relations between Armenia and
    Turkey as it was so far could not last, of course. Something had to be
    done about it in terms of the opening of borders, normalization, etc.

    It is necessary to consider ways and means of promotion of one's
    interests in the region in this new situation. The war in Georgia
    reminded everyone of the existence of grave risks in connection with
    the latent territorial conflicts in the region. Awareness of these
    risks provided an additional impetus to the Armenian-Turkish relations.

    As for Russia, its very behavior shows that it has been expecting
    changes in the situation in this part of the Caucasus. Russia invests
    into Armenian economy. It builds railways there. Investments of this
    kind are made only when the investor is fairly confident that he will
    get his money's worth back, and that means when the borders are open.

    Question: Shall we assume that the rapprochement with Ankara is
    something the Armenian diplomacy should take credit for? Did Yerevan
    manage to disassociate the matter of rapprochement with Turkey from
    the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh?

    Peter Semneby: It was not Armenia alone providing the necessary push
    that set things in motion. (Even though it was always clear that
    doing so is in the interests of Armenia, that is.) We have to admit
    meanwhile that some political forces in Armenia question expediency
    of this move. Some heated debates are taking place in Turkey too,
    as we know. Turkey understands that it may become one of the central
    players in all of the region only if and when this particular matter is
    addressed and taken care of. This conflict with Armenia tied Ankara's
    hands in the South Caucasus.

    As for the Armenian-Turkish relations and the conflict over
    Nagorno-Karabakh, these are two different conflicts that should not be
    mixed. An attempt to mix them will interfere with the normalization
    trend we've been seeing. It is clear that any development in each of
    these matters has an effect on the general atmosphere. It behooves
    us therefore to do whatever it takes to make sure that this effect
    is positive.

    Question: What concessions can Armenia and Azerbaijan go for in the
    matter of Karabakh conflict resolution right at this point?

    Peter Semneby: By and large, I believe that it is necessary to aspire
    to a situation where both parties will make some sort of concession
    to the other and leave major issues including that of the status of
    Karabakh for later.

    Question: Is there a chance that this rapprochement with Turkey will
    spark street protests and foment mass disturbances in Armenia?

    Peter Semneby: Opposition to normalization of the relations with
    Turkey is external rather than domestic. What I mean is that it is
    mostly Armenian diasporas abroad that have been raising objections.

    And yet, this is a serious problem for the Armenian administration
    because of the part in the life of the country diasporas traditionally
    play.

    Question: When can we expect the opening of the Armenian-Turkish
    border?

    Peter Semneby: The countdown will begin with ratification of the
    protocols by national parliaments. It should occur two months after
    the exchange of ratifications.

    Question: Will the protocols be ratified?

    Peter Semneby: Nobody can say for sure, of course, but I'm convinced
    that they will be ratified, all the same.

    Question: What effect will this Armenian-Turkish rapprochement have
    on the regional economic architecture based on and centered around
    Azerbaijani and Central Asian oil and gas export?

    Peter Semneby: Normalization of the relations will open new
    opportunities, facilitate regional security, and have a generally
    positive effect on the economy of the region.

    Question: Leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and even Karabakh visit
    Moscow in the wake of every new development in the Armenian-Turkish
    rapprochement and in the course of the Karabakh talks. Why would they?

    Whose initiative is it?

    Peter Semneby: It is clear that Russia has extensive interests in the
    South Caucasus and that it is prepared to defend and promote them. It
    is natural. It is a positive factor, in general, that Russia clearly
    associates its interests with progress in the matter of conflict
    resolution. We can only welcome Russia's resolve to play an energetic
    role in these matters.

    Question: And yet, the opening of the border is bound to turn Armenian
    economy to Turkey. Lacking ground routes connecting it with Armenia,
    Russia is bound to perceive a certain weakening of the ties with the
    country it has regarded as its principal ally in the South Caucasus
    for years. And yet, Moscow supports and abets the negotiations under
    way. Isn't that paradoxical?

    Peter Semneby: Russia has vast interest in Armenia, and particularly
    economic interests. Since Russia invested colossal sums in Armenia,
    in its energy infrastructure and so on, it is naturally interested in
    development of the Armenian economy. Its dynamic development meanwhile
    necessitates certain conditions. An open border with Turkey is the
    most important factor facilitating economic development of Armenia.

    Even diversification of the Armenian economy will benefit Russia.

    Question: This solution to the Armenian-Turkish problem... shall
    we call it Armenia's step in the direction of European and Atlantic
    integration?

    Peter Semneby: Armenia participates in a great deal of EU's programs
    like the neighborhood program or, for example, the Eastern Partnership
    initiative. Negotiations over associated membership in the European
    Union might begin soon because that's what we offer to all Eastern
    Partnership participants. It will continue regardless of whether or
    not the border with Turkey is opened.
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