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  • BAKU: Future Of S. Caucasus Largely Depends On Understanding Between

    FUTURE OF S. CAUCASUS LARGELY DEPENDS ON UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN AZERBAIJANI, ARMENIAN LEADERS: RUSSIAN EXPERT

    Today
    Nov 20 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Doctor of Historical Sciences, senior researcher at the Russian
    Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economy and International
    Relations Alexander Krilov shared his views on the upcoming meeting
    of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in Munich, Nov. 22.

    "I would not limit significance of this meeting only to the Karabakh
    problem. It is much more, and is dictated by the radical changes in
    the Caucasus region and in the international arena," he said.

    "The Madrid principles provide a return of so-called "security zone"
    to Azerbaijan, granting interim status to Nagorno-Karabakh, security
    guarantees and self-government, keeping the corridor between Armenia
    and Nagorno-Karabakh, defineding final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh
    in future based on legally binding will, the right of all internally
    displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of
    residence and, finally, international guarantees of security and
    peacekeeping operations," Krilov said.

    Krilov also believes that "the way of mutual concessions is
    unrealistic, because neither society nor the political elite in
    Azerbaijan and Armenia are ready to the proposed mutual concessions."

    "There is no even a minimum confidence between them without which
    compromise is impossible. Therefore, the key factor is the external
    pressure on both sides, the paragraph about international security
    guarantees and peacekeeping operations," Krilov added.

    "Political scientists have already begun to speculate about transfer
    of the Caucasus, "into the Kosovo team" of American diplomacy. This
    is further evidence of the high degree of outside forces' interest
    in deployment of their troops to Azerbaijan and Armenia. One can
    endlessly speculate about in what form the Kosovo scenario would be
    applied to in the South Caucasus. Maybe it will not be applied at all."

    "But it is clear that the deployment of troops of other countries
    severely limits sovereignty of Azerbaijan and Armenia. In this case
    problems of the region will be dictated not by the parties to the
    conflict, but other states which actually happens in the Balkans and
    other conflict regions. Can one believe that the interests of foreign
    states is solely peaceful settlement and that they make no attempt
    at a convenient pretext to establish political and military control
    over the strategically important region? This would be an extreme
    political naivety," he said.

    "In fact, the question is whether Azerbaijan and Armenia remain as
    independent subjects of international relations or their sovereignty
    will be severely limited. I think that Azerbaijan and Armenia have
    common interests in this situation more than ever before. They are
    equally interested in the fact that they does not become a plaything in
    the hands of external forces and in preserving their own independence
    and sovereignty," Krilov said.

    In fact, future destiny of the South Caucasus is being determined now.

    Yet the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia have an opportunity to
    influence developments. Future of the South Caucasus largely depends
    on whether the leaders will succeed to reach understanding in the
    forthcoming Munich meeting," Krilov said.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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