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  • Things get going: weekly review

    news.am, Armenia
    Nov 21 2009


    Things get going: weekly review

    09:45 / 11/21/2009Domestic policy

    After a long interval, this week has proved to be a politically
    eventful one. The pro-government camp's intensified activities have
    been a distinctive feature in contrast to its usual passivity and
    responses to the Opposition's accusations. This time, Armenia's second
    President Robert Kocharyan personally responded to the Opposition
    leader Levot Ter-Petrosyan. Robert Kocharyan's appearance in public is
    within the context of his repeated attempts to return to politics.

    The statements made by Robert Kocharyan, who, as usual, resorted to
    insulting his political opponent, without making any specific
    political appraisals, are of no special interest. Another matter is
    the disappointment felt by few of Robert Kocharyan's supporters, who
    form part of the Establishment. For months `Kocharyan's people' had
    been waiting for their `icon' to give a serious and well-argued
    response to the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols and the
    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, but Kocharyan only confined himself to
    stories about recent hunting in Africa thereby underlining his
    alienation from political life.

    On the other hand, Kocharyan's team cannot be said `to be asleep' ` it
    is showing clear signs of political activity. Over the last few months
    the ex-president has been `present' on the political scene by means of
    his minions. The Civilitas Foundation headed by the ex-foreign
    minister Vartan Oskanian is holding regular events. However, after
    Oskanian was actively involved in the tragic events on March 1, 2008,
    the Armenian society is unwilling to accept his concern over the
    situation in the country as sincere statements by an independent
    politician.

    In this context, another creature of Robert Kocharyan, the Chairman of
    the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) and oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan
    `launched an offensive.' He has been actively buying the airtime of
    Armenian TV channels lately, and the viewers have to `enjoy' the
    programs about the `charity and generosity' of Mr. Tsarukyan, who is
    not in any way among Armenia's largest taxpayers. What is more, PAP
    representatives kicked up a row at the sitting of the Yerevan
    Municipal Council thereby coming into an open conflict with Yerevan
    Mayor Gagik Beglaryan, a nominee of the Republican Party of Armenia
    (RPA) and its Chairman, RA President Serzh Sargsyan. The
    Beglaryan-Tsarukyan confrontation stems from the elections to the
    Yerevan Municipal Council on May 31, when the RPA formed an
    overwhelming majority and laid hands on the reigns of government in
    the Armenian capital. Thus the RPA must have broken `a previous
    portfolio arrangement' with the PAP. The PAP, however, has not yet so
    far come into an overt conflict with the RPA.

    The PAP's recently intensified activities are in perfect harmony with
    Robert Kocharyan's repeated attempts to remind the public of his
    presence in Armenia's political life. Strangely enough, the Armenian
    authorities do not put any obstacles to the Armenian TV channels
    covering the activities of Gagik Tsarukyan and his party. This
    situation suggests that the confrontation between the two forces,
    which are the backbone of the ruling coalition, is an intricate
    combination of undercurrents.

    In fact, we can state that the Serzh Sargsyan team has managed to
    prevent Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan from being involved in
    behind-the-scenes activities in case of political tension in the
    country as a result of unfavorable developments in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. This is the only plausible explanation
    for his sudden admission to the RPA, as well as for the subsequent
    statements by RPA representatives that, from now on, the Premier will
    not be free in expressing his political views, but will be obliged to
    implement the central ruling force's policy.

    The regards the opposition camp, main developments involved Nikol
    Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the opposition newspaper Haykakan
    Zhamanak. The developments took an unexpected course, which is
    evidence of the authorities' changed tactics. At the November 19 court
    sitting, the Prosecution refused to call the most part of the
    witnesses involved in the case. It has a logical explanation: a number
    of political myths created by the Armenian authorities in interpreting
    the March 1, 2008, events were debunked by the conflicting
    testimonies. Almost all the witnesses `destroyed' the Prosecution's
    arguments, which made the Prosecution to refuse to call the others
    thereby trying to speed up the proceedings.

    The authorities' `aspiration' to have a verdict returned as soon as
    possible can be explained. Nikol Pashinyan, who is charged with
    organizing riots, has been nominated as a parliamentary candidate by
    the Opposition at the by-elections in Election District #10 scheduled
    for January 10. Pashinyan can run for Parliament without any problems
    unless a verdict of guilty is returned before January 10. As regards
    the story with a certificate confirming his residence in Armenia over
    the last five years, it ended in a verdict obliging the local passport
    office to issue the relevant certificate to Pashinyan for him to be
    able to get registered as a candidate.

    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process

    This week has been marked by intensive preparations for the next
    Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting. The numerous statements
    made on the international scene suggest the conclusion that the key
    geopolitical players, Russia, the USA and European Union (EU), have
    intensified the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The developments show
    that the international community is increasing its pressure on Armenia
    and Azerbaijan, and the forthcoming Armenian-Azerbaijan presidential
    meeting may result in a document on the fundamental settlement
    principles.

    Although the Azerbaijani authorities' non-constructive position may
    thwart the negotiation process, the geopolitical players, instead of
    `neutralizing' official Baku's provocations, began making desperate
    efforts to achieve the results as soon as possible. The United States'
    `outward passivity' confirms the suppositions that, in contrast to the
    Armenian-Turkish relations, Russia is the principal mediator in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Moreover, at a news conference on the
    EU-Russia Summit, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a plain
    statement on a Russia-West consensus on the ways of settling the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Contrasting the disagreements over last
    year's events in Georgia between Russia and the West with the
    `complete agreement' on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Russian
    leader stated: `In particular, we discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
    process taking place between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It has made
    progress. This is an example of how we can cooperate or could have
    cooperated but for last year's tragedy.'

    This year it is impossible to state the reason for the intensified
    Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes in a
    clearer way. But for the Russia-West agreement this spring, the
    Armenian-Turkish roadmap would not have been signed this April,
    Armenian-Turkish protocols would not have been initialed on August 31
    and signed on October 10. And now that Yerevan and Ankara have to take
    concrete steps to ratify and start implementing the protocols, Moscow
    has made statements running counter to its previous ones. Let us take
    the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' statements just before the
    Armenian-Turkish protocols were signed. They denied any linkage
    between the Armenia-Turkey and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes On the
    other hand, Andrey Nesterenko, official representative of the RF
    Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the following statement: `As far as we
    know issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh were raised during the
    Yerevan-Ankara negotiations. This range of issue must be considered in
    this process. Let us hope that all the issues will be settled in
    conformity with the decisions made by international organizations and
    meet the interests of all the nations of the region.' So it turned out
    that two simultaneous processes are going on, which, according to the
    statements made abroad, are so parallel that it can hardly be noticed.

    A number of European officials also voiced their opinions on the
    intensifying Nagorno-Karabakh peace process on the threshold of the
    Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting.

    The attempts made by the geopolitical players and international
    community to speed up the settlement of the frozen conflict and help
    the conflicting parties to reach a peace agreement can only be
    welcomed. The mediators, however, are `getting carried away', making a
    fundamental mistake, which may prove too expensive to all the sides
    and fatal to the previous efforts and agreements. Do not they
    exaggerate the significance of the geopolitical factor in the sides'
    making crucial decisions?

    Economy and social life

    Government officials go on making their assessments of the impact of
    the global economic crisis on Armenia, which, however, are getting
    less and less convincing. Let us remembers that, just of the threshold
    of the unprecedented economic decline, RA Prime Minister Tigran
    Sargsyan even said the crisis could be of benefit to Armenia, whereas
    RA Minister of Finance Tigran Davtyan's present assurances do not
    sound convincing. The Minister is sure that `Armenia will be ahead of
    others in overcoming the consequences of the financial crisis and
    restore its economy.' On the other hand, Armenia was not among the
    first to feel the consequences of the crisis, so it will be ahead of
    others in overcoming them though the economic decline was among the
    most serious in the country. `The economic decline index is a
    technical one reflecting the technical aspect of the situation in the
    country,' Davtyan said.

    According to the data published this week, the poverty level rose by
    2.8% in Armenia in the 2nd quarter of 2009 as compared with the
    corresponding period last year ` up to 28.4%. A WB expert cited the
    figures at a presentation of a WB report on Armenia.

    At the same time, despite criticism, the Armenian Government continues
    providing financial guarantees. It is the turn of the Norashen-2007
    cooperative society now. The Government has provided it with U.S.
    $500,000 guarantees for three years. The aim is to attract credits for
    the construction of a residential building in the Achapnyak community
    in Yerevan.

    At its sitting on November 17, the RA Commission for Protection of
    Economic Competition initiated proceedings against 19 major companies
    working on the Armenian drug market. Surveys conducted by the
    Commission this October-November showed rise in drug prices. The
    prices for anti-virus drugs as well as for drugs against
    cardiovascular diseases and diabetes showed a sharp rise. The
    Commission arrived at the conclusion that the aforementioned economic
    entities violate the antimonopoly laws. The Commission intends to
    demand documents substantiating the price rise from the importers. The
    companies also have to provide all the import and sales documents to
    the Commission. The Commission also pointed out the necessity for
    finding out the reasons for limited competition on Armenia's drug
    market. On top of all, after swine flue cases were registered in
    Armenia, anti-virus medicines and hygienic masks disappeared from
    drugstores. And the price for TAMIFLU has been raised several times.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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