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DANGER IN THE CAUCASUS
The Daily Telegraph
November 23, 2009 Monday
London
Nagorno-Karabakh is the Schleswig-Holstein question of our day. Of
that 19th-century conflict Lord Palmerston said that only three men
in Europe had ever understood it; one was dead, the second became mad
and the third was himself, and he had forgotten it. Nagorno-Karabakh,
a territory within Azerbaijan but with a largely Armenian population,
made the news in the early 1990s when Azerbaijan and Armenia waged a
bloody war over it as the Soviet Union was breaking up. Since then,
the enclave has slid from public consciousness, at least in the West,
as one of those intractable problems that bedevil the Caucasus. That
neglect, however, has not deterred diplomacy. Yesterday the presidents
of the two republics met in Munich; France, America and Russia are
mediating under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in Europe.
Their talks have been given added momentum by a rapprochement between
Turkey and Armenia, a historic move given the long shadow cast by the
Ottoman massacres of Armenians between 1915 and 1917. But Ankara has
said that the re-opening of their common border and the establishment
of diplomatic relations depend on progress over Nagorno-Karabakh. The
Schleswig-Holstein question led to three wars, the last, when Prussia
seized control from Austria, the first of Bismarck's campaigns to
unify Germany through "iron and blood". The future of Nagorno-Karabakh
carries serious implications for Turkey's role in the Caucasus, and,
by extension, its bid for EU membership, for the supply of oil and
gas to the West, and for Armenia's crippled economy.
Finding a solution, based on Armenia's ceding of territory in exchange
for an eventual referendum on the enclave's status, is daunting. But
the stakes, in an area of great strategic importance, are high.
The Daily Telegraph
November 23, 2009 Monday
London
Nagorno-Karabakh is the Schleswig-Holstein question of our day. Of
that 19th-century conflict Lord Palmerston said that only three men
in Europe had ever understood it; one was dead, the second became mad
and the third was himself, and he had forgotten it. Nagorno-Karabakh,
a territory within Azerbaijan but with a largely Armenian population,
made the news in the early 1990s when Azerbaijan and Armenia waged a
bloody war over it as the Soviet Union was breaking up. Since then,
the enclave has slid from public consciousness, at least in the West,
as one of those intractable problems that bedevil the Caucasus. That
neglect, however, has not deterred diplomacy. Yesterday the presidents
of the two republics met in Munich; France, America and Russia are
mediating under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in Europe.
Their talks have been given added momentum by a rapprochement between
Turkey and Armenia, a historic move given the long shadow cast by the
Ottoman massacres of Armenians between 1915 and 1917. But Ankara has
said that the re-opening of their common border and the establishment
of diplomatic relations depend on progress over Nagorno-Karabakh. The
Schleswig-Holstein question led to three wars, the last, when Prussia
seized control from Austria, the first of Bismarck's campaigns to
unify Germany through "iron and blood". The future of Nagorno-Karabakh
carries serious implications for Turkey's role in the Caucasus, and,
by extension, its bid for EU membership, for the supply of oil and
gas to the West, and for Armenia's crippled economy.
Finding a solution, based on Armenia's ceding of territory in exchange
for an eventual referendum on the enclave's status, is daunting. But
the stakes, in an area of great strategic importance, are high.