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TURKEY PRESSURES ARMENIA THROUGH THE MINSK GROUP AND THE UNITED STATES
Saban Kardas
Jamestown Foundation
September 30, 2009 02:41 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (R) meets with Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
International diplomatic pressure on Turkey and Armenia to boost their
efforts toward the normalization of their bilateral relations has
continued on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. U.S. Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton held separate meetings with the foreign
ministers of both countries, urging them to take concrete steps
toward implementing their commitment to end decades of hostility
(Anadolu Ajansi, September 29). During her meeting with the Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Clinton said that normalization
"should take place without preconditions and within a reasonable
timeframe." She also communicated a similar message to the Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (Today's Zaman, September 30).
Prior to her meeting with Davutoglu, Clinton praised the Turkish
government's resolution to resolve its problems with Armenia. Davutoglu
also recalled President Barack Obama's description of Turkish-American
relations as a "model partnership" and noted that the two countries
would continue to cooperate in a myriad of areas (ANKA, September
29). In addition to Turkish-Armenian relations, Clinton and Davutoglu
discussed the progress over the Cyprus dispute, joint efforts against
international terrorism, developments in the Balkans, energy security
and the Iranian nuclear issue (Anadolu Ajansi, September 29).
Speaking to reporters about Clinton's meetings, the U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State for European Affairs Philip Gordon said that
Washington was eager to see the conclusion of a deal between the
two countries soon. "This is a challenging process that faces some
political opposition in both countries and it is difficul ent...It
should not wait for other things to be implemented, or be linked to
other issues. It should go ahead," Gordon added (Hurriyet Daily News,
September 30).
Despite international attention on the issue and raised expectations
of an imminent breakthrough, major obstacles remain. This
development comes against the background of the recent steps toward
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, facilitated by Switzerland. Following
the roadmap they announced in April, Turkey and Armenia recently
initialed protocols to take steps toward the resolution of their
differences, including the future re-opening of the Turkish-Armenian
border. They committed to signing agreements on finalizing these
issues. However, the implementation of any deal will be subject to
parliamentary ratification in both countries. Since Turkish public
opinion is becoming increasingly nationalist, and the opposition
parties have declared their skepticism toward the protocols,
obtaining domestic support for the Justice and Development Party's
(AKP) "Armenian opening" is likely to prove problematic. Moreover,
Turkey's ethnically close and strategic ally in the South Caucasus,
Azerbaijan, was troubled by the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation
given the ongoing Azeri-Armenian dispute. The Turkish government
announced that Ankara will take into account Baku's concerns and
avoid proceeding with its Armenian opening without the resolution
of the Karabakh dispute. As a result, Baku emerged as a significant
player in Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, rendering the resolution
of the bilateral problems extremely difficult (EDM, September 8, 16).
The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that
Ankara and Yerevan will sign a deal to establish diplomatic
ties around October 10-11, and the issue would be brought before
parliament. Earlier, anonymous Turkish diplomatic sources also said
that the agreement would be signed on October 10, although reporters
could not confirm this date through Armenian diplomats (Anadolu Ajansi,
September 27).
Speaking to the Azeri press, Erdogan, however, reiterated
Turkish support for Azerbaijan. "The interests of Azerbaijan are
always important for Turkey. We will not betray Azerbaijan... The
normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia... has reached a
very delicate point. We will not sign an agreement that will contradict
Azerbaijan's interests. This process will contribute to the resolution
of the Karabakh dispute" (Cihan, September 28).
Erdogan also voiced his expectation for broader international
involvement in Azeri-Armenian problems. He called on the United States
and other members of the OSCE's Minsk group to play a more pro-active
role in addressing the Karabakh issue, arguing that the resolution
of this problem will facilitate the resolution of other problems
in the region (Cihan, September 28). Indeed, Erdogan had spoken to
Obama on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh, where he
conveyed similar messages. In response to Erdogan's invitation to
mobilize the Minsk Group's involvement, Obama told Erdogan that he
was aware of the critical role that the Karabakh dispute played in
the region (Hurriyet, Sep r in the Turkish parliament will begin on
October 1, which will increase pressure on the government to address
the Armenian opening and other controversial domestic and foreign
policy initiatives. The government realizes that it has put itself
in a delicate position over Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Both
to allay Baku's concerns and to reduce the domestic opposition,
it acknowledged the linkage between Turkey's own normalization and
the resolution of the Karabakh issue. For the Turks, the resolution
of the Karabakh conflict depends on Armenia ending its occupation of
Azeri territories and its withdrawal from Karabakh.
However, despite Ankara's optimism that Yerevan might act in a
more reconciliatory manner vis-a-vis Baku, no progress has been
achieved. As the deadline for signing the protocols and eventually
obtaining parliamentary ratification approaches, the government is
desperately seeking to find some "evidence" that it can offer to
allay domestic fears that Armenia is conceding to Azerbaijan in the
Karabakh dispute. In that context, the role Turkey attaches to the
Minsk group has come to the fore. Although Ankara earlier supported
Baku in its criticism of the Minsk group for failing to develop
any solution (Anadolu Ajansi, May 25), it has recently proven more
cautious on whether the Minsk group might persuade Yerevan to at least
partially withdraw from the occupied Azeri territories, without which
the government will have difficulties in securing the ratification
of the agreement from parliament (Radikal, September 2; Hurriyet,
September 21).
Saban Kardas
Jamestown Foundation
September 30, 2009 02:41 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (R) meets with Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
International diplomatic pressure on Turkey and Armenia to boost their
efforts toward the normalization of their bilateral relations has
continued on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. U.S. Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton held separate meetings with the foreign
ministers of both countries, urging them to take concrete steps
toward implementing their commitment to end decades of hostility
(Anadolu Ajansi, September 29). During her meeting with the Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Clinton said that normalization
"should take place without preconditions and within a reasonable
timeframe." She also communicated a similar message to the Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (Today's Zaman, September 30).
Prior to her meeting with Davutoglu, Clinton praised the Turkish
government's resolution to resolve its problems with Armenia. Davutoglu
also recalled President Barack Obama's description of Turkish-American
relations as a "model partnership" and noted that the two countries
would continue to cooperate in a myriad of areas (ANKA, September
29). In addition to Turkish-Armenian relations, Clinton and Davutoglu
discussed the progress over the Cyprus dispute, joint efforts against
international terrorism, developments in the Balkans, energy security
and the Iranian nuclear issue (Anadolu Ajansi, September 29).
Speaking to reporters about Clinton's meetings, the U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State for European Affairs Philip Gordon said that
Washington was eager to see the conclusion of a deal between the
two countries soon. "This is a challenging process that faces some
political opposition in both countries and it is difficul ent...It
should not wait for other things to be implemented, or be linked to
other issues. It should go ahead," Gordon added (Hurriyet Daily News,
September 30).
Despite international attention on the issue and raised expectations
of an imminent breakthrough, major obstacles remain. This
development comes against the background of the recent steps toward
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, facilitated by Switzerland. Following
the roadmap they announced in April, Turkey and Armenia recently
initialed protocols to take steps toward the resolution of their
differences, including the future re-opening of the Turkish-Armenian
border. They committed to signing agreements on finalizing these
issues. However, the implementation of any deal will be subject to
parliamentary ratification in both countries. Since Turkish public
opinion is becoming increasingly nationalist, and the opposition
parties have declared their skepticism toward the protocols,
obtaining domestic support for the Justice and Development Party's
(AKP) "Armenian opening" is likely to prove problematic. Moreover,
Turkey's ethnically close and strategic ally in the South Caucasus,
Azerbaijan, was troubled by the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation
given the ongoing Azeri-Armenian dispute. The Turkish government
announced that Ankara will take into account Baku's concerns and
avoid proceeding with its Armenian opening without the resolution
of the Karabakh dispute. As a result, Baku emerged as a significant
player in Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, rendering the resolution
of the bilateral problems extremely difficult (EDM, September 8, 16).
The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that
Ankara and Yerevan will sign a deal to establish diplomatic
ties around October 10-11, and the issue would be brought before
parliament. Earlier, anonymous Turkish diplomatic sources also said
that the agreement would be signed on October 10, although reporters
could not confirm this date through Armenian diplomats (Anadolu Ajansi,
September 27).
Speaking to the Azeri press, Erdogan, however, reiterated
Turkish support for Azerbaijan. "The interests of Azerbaijan are
always important for Turkey. We will not betray Azerbaijan... The
normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia... has reached a
very delicate point. We will not sign an agreement that will contradict
Azerbaijan's interests. This process will contribute to the resolution
of the Karabakh dispute" (Cihan, September 28).
Erdogan also voiced his expectation for broader international
involvement in Azeri-Armenian problems. He called on the United States
and other members of the OSCE's Minsk group to play a more pro-active
role in addressing the Karabakh issue, arguing that the resolution
of this problem will facilitate the resolution of other problems
in the region (Cihan, September 28). Indeed, Erdogan had spoken to
Obama on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh, where he
conveyed similar messages. In response to Erdogan's invitation to
mobilize the Minsk Group's involvement, Obama told Erdogan that he
was aware of the critical role that the Karabakh dispute played in
the region (Hurriyet, Sep r in the Turkish parliament will begin on
October 1, which will increase pressure on the government to address
the Armenian opening and other controversial domestic and foreign
policy initiatives. The government realizes that it has put itself
in a delicate position over Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Both
to allay Baku's concerns and to reduce the domestic opposition,
it acknowledged the linkage between Turkey's own normalization and
the resolution of the Karabakh issue. For the Turks, the resolution
of the Karabakh conflict depends on Armenia ending its occupation of
Azeri territories and its withdrawal from Karabakh.
However, despite Ankara's optimism that Yerevan might act in a
more reconciliatory manner vis-a-vis Baku, no progress has been
achieved. As the deadline for signing the protocols and eventually
obtaining parliamentary ratification approaches, the government is
desperately seeking to find some "evidence" that it can offer to
allay domestic fears that Armenia is conceding to Azerbaijan in the
Karabakh dispute. In that context, the role Turkey attaches to the
Minsk group has come to the fore. Although Ankara earlier supported
Baku in its criticism of the Minsk group for failing to develop
any solution (Anadolu Ajansi, May 25), it has recently proven more
cautious on whether the Minsk group might persuade Yerevan to at least
partially withdraw from the occupied Azeri territories, without which
the government will have difficulties in securing the ratification
of the agreement from parliament (Radikal, September 2; Hurriyet,
September 21).