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  • Before The Ball

    BEFORE THE BALL
    Igor Muradyan

    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments-lra hos15414.html
    16:17:54 - 05/10/2009

    Despite all the scandal around the Armenian-Turkish protocols, the
    impression is created that many people in Armenia are waiting for a
    solution, like in a ball, but in this case it is not a festival during
    plague but just celebrations and festival caused by the fact that the
    country appeared in the centre of the world attention. About this,
    both pro-government and pro-oppositional idiots tell me with pleasure
    which imagine themselves the creators of the history. The mass media
    writes that the 55 percent is against the arrangements, and the resting
    45 percent is rather low for a kind-hearted nation which endlessly
    changes it mind. The example of Georgia is worth remembering which
    has been not only been transformed into a coin but also put on the
    sacrificial altar as a lamb and it is constantly blooding. Who is not
    lazy complains. And those who have been propagating for already 20
    years to refuse everything once irrefutable in the national ideology
    now became super patriots and they are offended that someone named
    Serge does what they aspired to do. Those who have cooperated with the
    marginal political regime being a part of the shameful coalition now
    remembered what is written in their order. Protest the outspoken agents
    of foreign influence, representing themselves innocent and helpless
    in the garbage pit, which is called Armenian politics. This debate
    in Parliament, which has become a byword for outside observers, has
    demonstrated everything the Armenian political class is capable. All
    this looks like a thieves' dismantling.

    So, about the focus of world attention.

    As it became clear, the Americans kicked Russia out of the arena
    of these negotiations and are now able to manipulate them, as they
    like. Russia will long continue to keep quiet and pretend that relates
    to this comedy positively. Similarly, Europeans are also pretending,
    for whom (in particular, for France and Germany) the solution to
    the Turkish-Armenian relations brings about a very, very unpleasant
    situation. Without exception, all the "interested" parties understand
    that a new geopolitical situation has to be expected in the region,
    which will undoubtedly lead to tension and hostility increase. And each
    side is now trying to figure out to what extent these new circumstances
    will affect their interests.

    In this situation, when Barack Obama puts forward various proposals
    to Turkey, including the deployment of missile defense and some
    understanding of the role of Turkey as well as its repression by the
    EU, the impression that the U.S. is helping this collapsing country
    making it a geo-strategic stake may be created. Nothing like this
    actually happens. Any U.S. initiative to promote relations with Turkey
    is aimed at strengthening control over it and limiting its foreign
    policy capabilities.

    Regarding the Turkish-Armenian talks, new circumstances connected
    with the administration policy of Barack Obama came out. Various
    Armenian circles in the U.S. quite different from the administration,
    get conflicting signals on the process of Armenian-Turkish talks. In
    this regard, it should be noted that the U.S. Foreign Office - the
    State Department and, to some extent, the National Security Council, in
    greater or lesser extent, are fragmented into three groups, benchmarks,
    respectively, to Barack Obama, John Biden and H. Clinton. Barack
    Obama appointed his people in the administration and, above all,
    for the posts of advisers on different regions and functional areas
    of foreign policy, monopolizing the "Islamic trend", including Turkey.

    Apparently, the president's people took under control also the European
    and the Chinese directions. The Eastern Europe, including Russia and
    Caucasus are in the field of influence of the Vice-president and
    Secretary of State. And it is the president's people who transmit
    signals to the Armenian organizations in the United States, as
    well as certain political groups in Armenia, to strengthen protest
    actions. Such a swift and smooth resolution of Armenian-Turkish
    relations does not satisfy the U.S., which began to doubt that
    this perspective will facilitate the implementation of their main
    goals with regard to Turkey, that is, to deter its ambitions. Two
    smartest men largely assimilated, but not finally parted with their
    Armenian ethnic image - one in Moscow, another in Houston, somehow
    managed to explain to the abstruse political designers in Washington
    that another incredible stupidity is being committed, and that it
    would be much wiser to quickly recognize the genocide. In short,
    Americans stopped halfway through, realizing that they confronted
    an incomprehensible situation. In the end, they cannot completely
    ignore the strategic interests of their major external partners -
    the leading European states. After some mutual understanding between
    Europeans and U.S. about a coherent policy with regard to containment
    of Turkey, built on the enthusiasm of the Europeans, in connection with
    the coming to power of Barack Obama, Americans have very deeply held
    forth in its separate game which is not expedient for the Europeans.

    What is Armenia seeking in this more than uncertain situation
    where neither the U.S. nor the EU, and in general no one bears any
    responsibility for the future. Armenian political class on a whim,
    felt the lack of capacity and information resources for analyzing
    and understanding the situation, and if there is something that can
    hold it back from committing stupidity and meanness, maybe only the
    fear from the unknown.

    In this situation of insanity, only one thing remains - to achieve
    the border opening with Turkey, but not in accelerated mode, but as
    they say in Odessa - "gradually". In the end, even the Americans were
    surprised at the total hegemony of enthusiasm of the Armenians on the
    early opening of the border, with any method at any price. Then begin
    a series of concessions, until the disaster. Yes, open the border
    let Armenians be content with cheap gruel. I am for the opening of
    this border if it makes sense.
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