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BANKING COMMUNITY OF ARMENIA EXPECTS TO FACE 13% ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AT THE END OF 2009
ArmInfo
2009-10-07 16:48:00
ArmInfo. The banking community of Armenia expects to face an economic
downturn at 14.8% maximal level. This is the result of forecast public
opinion poll among 48 banking top managers polled by the Financial
Analysis Service of ArmInfo News Agency over the summer months. In the
average, bankers expect GDP to fall by 12-13%. At the same time, asked
about the expected level of inflation in the country, the majority
of Armenian employees of banks forecasted the annual inflation at up
to 10%, while 21 people expect a higher level - from 10% to 20%.
Only three specialists pointed out a maximal inflation bar at
5.5%. There were interesting answers connected with the Armenian dram
(AMD) exchange forecast. According to the respondents, the forecasted
average exchange rate was 398 AMD/1USD, the minimal bar was 320
AMD/1USD, the maximal one - 450 AMD/1USD. 22 respondents said that
exchange rate will range from 360 to 380 AMD/1USD, and 25 respondents
pointed out an exchange rate of over 380 AMD/1USD, 20 specialists of
them forecasted an exchange rate of 400 AMD/1USD and higher. Only
2 specialists think that by the end of 2009 the exchange rate will
reach 450 AMD/1USD.
To note, the Government expects GDP to fall by 15% by the end of 2009
while by the end of August the decline made up 18.4%. The official
forecast of inflation in the country is 4% (+/- 1.5%) while as of the
end of September the price growth was 3,7% as compared with the same
period of 2008.
According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the AMD/USD
exchange rate in 2009 will range from 360 to 380 AMD/1USD while at
present the official exchange rate is over 385 AMD/1USD.
Asked whether it is possible to expect the summary amount of banks'
credit portfolio to decrease by the end of 2009 under the crisis
conditions, the overwhelming majority of the respondents (45 people)
repyied positively.
Only 4 respondents point out a maximal decline of portfolios at 35-50%,
9 respondents forecasted a decline at 15- 20%. At the same time,
most of the respondents think that the decline in the provision of
crediting will not exceed 10%. To note, a slight decline (2,9%) in
provision of crediting was fixed in the second quarter of 2009. Asked
about expectations concerning credit rates, the specialists pointed
out the average level at 21% p.a. for AMD loans, and 19% p.s. for USD
loans. 21 respondents think that the rates will range from 21% to 30%
for AMD loans, 19 respondents think that the rates will range from 19%
to 32% for USD loans.
Meanwhile, the bankers expect the decline in the liquidity level of the
banks to range from 4% to 8% by the end of 2009, the decline in current
liquidity to make up 8% at the mean, and the one in general liquidity
to make up 4%. Actually, as of 30 June 2009 current liquidity fell by
about 10% to 188,47% over the second quarter, the standard minimum
being 60%. General liquidity, on the contrary, slightly grew by 1%
to 32,65%, the admissible minimum being 15%.
To note, under the crisis conditions all the respondents expect the
banks' personnel to be optimized by 11% at the mean in the whole
banking system. 19 specialists think that the banks' personnel may
decline by 10- 20% at the mean.
ArmInfo
2009-10-07 16:48:00
ArmInfo. The banking community of Armenia expects to face an economic
downturn at 14.8% maximal level. This is the result of forecast public
opinion poll among 48 banking top managers polled by the Financial
Analysis Service of ArmInfo News Agency over the summer months. In the
average, bankers expect GDP to fall by 12-13%. At the same time, asked
about the expected level of inflation in the country, the majority
of Armenian employees of banks forecasted the annual inflation at up
to 10%, while 21 people expect a higher level - from 10% to 20%.
Only three specialists pointed out a maximal inflation bar at
5.5%. There were interesting answers connected with the Armenian dram
(AMD) exchange forecast. According to the respondents, the forecasted
average exchange rate was 398 AMD/1USD, the minimal bar was 320
AMD/1USD, the maximal one - 450 AMD/1USD. 22 respondents said that
exchange rate will range from 360 to 380 AMD/1USD, and 25 respondents
pointed out an exchange rate of over 380 AMD/1USD, 20 specialists of
them forecasted an exchange rate of 400 AMD/1USD and higher. Only
2 specialists think that by the end of 2009 the exchange rate will
reach 450 AMD/1USD.
To note, the Government expects GDP to fall by 15% by the end of 2009
while by the end of August the decline made up 18.4%. The official
forecast of inflation in the country is 4% (+/- 1.5%) while as of the
end of September the price growth was 3,7% as compared with the same
period of 2008.
According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the AMD/USD
exchange rate in 2009 will range from 360 to 380 AMD/1USD while at
present the official exchange rate is over 385 AMD/1USD.
Asked whether it is possible to expect the summary amount of banks'
credit portfolio to decrease by the end of 2009 under the crisis
conditions, the overwhelming majority of the respondents (45 people)
repyied positively.
Only 4 respondents point out a maximal decline of portfolios at 35-50%,
9 respondents forecasted a decline at 15- 20%. At the same time,
most of the respondents think that the decline in the provision of
crediting will not exceed 10%. To note, a slight decline (2,9%) in
provision of crediting was fixed in the second quarter of 2009. Asked
about expectations concerning credit rates, the specialists pointed
out the average level at 21% p.a. for AMD loans, and 19% p.s. for USD
loans. 21 respondents think that the rates will range from 21% to 30%
for AMD loans, 19 respondents think that the rates will range from 19%
to 32% for USD loans.
Meanwhile, the bankers expect the decline in the liquidity level of the
banks to range from 4% to 8% by the end of 2009, the decline in current
liquidity to make up 8% at the mean, and the one in general liquidity
to make up 4%. Actually, as of 30 June 2009 current liquidity fell by
about 10% to 188,47% over the second quarter, the standard minimum
being 60%. General liquidity, on the contrary, slightly grew by 1%
to 32,65%, the admissible minimum being 15%.
To note, under the crisis conditions all the respondents expect the
banks' personnel to be optimized by 11% at the mean in the whole
banking system. 19 specialists think that the banks' personnel may
decline by 10- 20% at the mean.