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GETTING TO A BREAKTHROUGH
AZG DAILY
09-10-2009
Nagorno-Karabakh
According to the International Crisis Group's report, Armenia and
Azerbaijan should endorse a document on basic principles to end
stalemate on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by the end of the year,
or they will face an eventual return to full-scale hostilities.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough,* the Group's latest policy
briefing, examines the two-decades-old conflict and concludes there
is reason for optimism that the political stalemate can be broken in
today's more supportive regional environment. However, it also warns
that both governments and the international community must step up
their efforts, as the status quo is increasingly untenable.
"Although a deliberate military offensive from either side is unlikely
in the near future, the ceasefire that ended active hostilities
fifteen years ago is increasingly fragile", says Lawrence Sheets,
Crisis Group's Caucasus Project Director. "There has been a steady
increase in the frequency and intensity of armed skirmishes that
could unintentionally spark a wider conflict".
The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh intensified following the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. However, the two countries are now in substantial
agreement on the framework of basic principles first outlined by the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group
in 2005. This framework revolves around three fundamental principles:
non-use of force, territorial integrity and self-determination.
As a first step to conflict resolution, Presidents Sarkisian of
Armenia and Aliyev of Azerbaijan must prepare their publics for a
possible peace deal. At present, there is a danger of a backlash,
especially among Armenians, that could derail any basic principles
agreement. After this agreement is signed, Nagorno-Karabakh's de
facto authorities and the Nagorno-Karabakh Azeri representatives
should be se of a multi-layered format, including direct contacts
between Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians to help promote dialogue.
The international community, in particular the U.S., France and
Russia as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, should intensify efforts
to encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to formally endorse the basic
principles document and then open negotiations on a conclusive peace
accord. The co-chairs should take advantage not only of their own
productive collaboration, but also of current positive movement
towards Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.
"There are encouraging signs the sides are inching towards agreement",
explains Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group's Europe Program Director. "But
differences still remain between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the
specifics of a final deal, most seriously over Nagorno-Karabakh's final
status, and there is mutual distrust between the societies. Though
a definitive settlement may still be years away, this window of
opportunity to make genuine progress and support sustainable regional
peace must not be missed".
AZG DAILY
09-10-2009
Nagorno-Karabakh
According to the International Crisis Group's report, Armenia and
Azerbaijan should endorse a document on basic principles to end
stalemate on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by the end of the year,
or they will face an eventual return to full-scale hostilities.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough,* the Group's latest policy
briefing, examines the two-decades-old conflict and concludes there
is reason for optimism that the political stalemate can be broken in
today's more supportive regional environment. However, it also warns
that both governments and the international community must step up
their efforts, as the status quo is increasingly untenable.
"Although a deliberate military offensive from either side is unlikely
in the near future, the ceasefire that ended active hostilities
fifteen years ago is increasingly fragile", says Lawrence Sheets,
Crisis Group's Caucasus Project Director. "There has been a steady
increase in the frequency and intensity of armed skirmishes that
could unintentionally spark a wider conflict".
The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh intensified following the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. However, the two countries are now in substantial
agreement on the framework of basic principles first outlined by the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group
in 2005. This framework revolves around three fundamental principles:
non-use of force, territorial integrity and self-determination.
As a first step to conflict resolution, Presidents Sarkisian of
Armenia and Aliyev of Azerbaijan must prepare their publics for a
possible peace deal. At present, there is a danger of a backlash,
especially among Armenians, that could derail any basic principles
agreement. After this agreement is signed, Nagorno-Karabakh's de
facto authorities and the Nagorno-Karabakh Azeri representatives
should be se of a multi-layered format, including direct contacts
between Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians to help promote dialogue.
The international community, in particular the U.S., France and
Russia as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, should intensify efforts
to encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to formally endorse the basic
principles document and then open negotiations on a conclusive peace
accord. The co-chairs should take advantage not only of their own
productive collaboration, but also of current positive movement
towards Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.
"There are encouraging signs the sides are inching towards agreement",
explains Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group's Europe Program Director. "But
differences still remain between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the
specifics of a final deal, most seriously over Nagorno-Karabakh's final
status, and there is mutual distrust between the societies. Though
a definitive settlement may still be years away, this window of
opportunity to make genuine progress and support sustainable regional
peace must not be missed".