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TURKEY AND ARMENIA TAKE STEP TOWARD DIPLOMATIC TIES
By Yigal Schleifer
The Christian Science Monitor
October 9, 2009 edition
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend the Zurich signing
that moves the neighbors toward opening their border. They have long
been at odds over the issue of the Armenian genocide.
Print this Buzz up!Email and shareRepublish E-mail newsletters RSS
Istanbul - In what could signal a watershed moment for the troubled
Caucasus region, Turkey and Armenia are expected to sign a set of
protocols in Zurich Saturday that will lead toward the renewal of
diplomatic relations after decades of hostility.
Along with the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers, US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton and her French and Russian counterparts are
expected to attend the signing ceremony.
But experts warn that serious hurdles stand in the way of the two
countries actually opening up their borders.
Ankara and Yerevan broke off relations in 1993 when Turkey closed
its border with Armenia after it invaded the Azerbaijani territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey is Azerbaijan's strongest ally. But the animosity goes backs
decades further to what Armenia alleges was the genocide of an
estimated 1.5 million Armenians under the Ottoman Turks during World
War I.
Turkey admits a significantly lower number of Armenians were
killed, but fiercely rejects suggestions that the killings were
genocide. Ankara argues the deaths were a result of a civil uprising
when Armenians joined forces with invading Russians.
Protocols may not pass in parliaments
The protocols to be signed call for the renewal of diplomatic ties,
the opening of the common border, and the establishment of a historical
commission to investigate the events during World War I.
The only catch, analysts point out, is that the protocols will only
go into effect once the parliaments in both countries ratify them. In
both Turkey and Armenia, domestic opposition could stand in the way
of that happening.
"The road to restoring Turkish-Armenian relations is rocky," says
Amanda Akcakoca, a Turkey expert at the European Policy Centre,
a Brussels-based think tank. "Signing it is not the same thing as
having it ratified in parliament. That's going to be the hard part."
In Turkey, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could stand in the way of the
protocols' ratification. Ankara imposed its economic blockade on
Armenia in 1993 to support Baku's efforts to retain control over
Karabakh.
During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared "that the border between Turkey
and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of Azerbaijani
occupied territories."
Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a
linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, parliamentarians from the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) have warned that it would be hard
to pass the protocols without any progress on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, as it deals with Turkey, the Armenian government has had to
contend with strong opposition, both domestically and from its large
diaspora, which is concerned that Turkey is getting a free pass on
the genocide issue.
Reconciliation boosts both countries in region
Observers say restoring relations with Turkey would bring Armenia out
of its isolation in the region and could provide the cash-strapped
country with new economic opportunities.
For Turkey, an EU-candidate country that has ambitions to play a
larger political and diplomatic role in the surrounding region and
to establish itself as an important energy transit route, restoring
ties with Armenia is also critical.
"The invasion of Georgia last summer really concentrated minds in
the region. Energy routes are the biggest game in town, and you need
security and stability and access for that. Restoring relations with
Armenia can create all kinds of synergy for regional cooperation
and stability," says Semih Idiz, a foreign affairs columnist for the
Turkish daily newspaper Milliyet.
"Restoring relations brings more credibility for the role that Turkey
wants to play in the region. It brings credibility to the vision of
zero problems with neighbors and for cooperating in the region and
Turkey gains credibility in terms of its EU dimension."
By Yigal Schleifer
The Christian Science Monitor
October 9, 2009 edition
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend the Zurich signing
that moves the neighbors toward opening their border. They have long
been at odds over the issue of the Armenian genocide.
Print this Buzz up!Email and shareRepublish E-mail newsletters RSS
Istanbul - In what could signal a watershed moment for the troubled
Caucasus region, Turkey and Armenia are expected to sign a set of
protocols in Zurich Saturday that will lead toward the renewal of
diplomatic relations after decades of hostility.
Along with the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers, US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton and her French and Russian counterparts are
expected to attend the signing ceremony.
But experts warn that serious hurdles stand in the way of the two
countries actually opening up their borders.
Ankara and Yerevan broke off relations in 1993 when Turkey closed
its border with Armenia after it invaded the Azerbaijani territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey is Azerbaijan's strongest ally. But the animosity goes backs
decades further to what Armenia alleges was the genocide of an
estimated 1.5 million Armenians under the Ottoman Turks during World
War I.
Turkey admits a significantly lower number of Armenians were
killed, but fiercely rejects suggestions that the killings were
genocide. Ankara argues the deaths were a result of a civil uprising
when Armenians joined forces with invading Russians.
Protocols may not pass in parliaments
The protocols to be signed call for the renewal of diplomatic ties,
the opening of the common border, and the establishment of a historical
commission to investigate the events during World War I.
The only catch, analysts point out, is that the protocols will only
go into effect once the parliaments in both countries ratify them. In
both Turkey and Armenia, domestic opposition could stand in the way
of that happening.
"The road to restoring Turkish-Armenian relations is rocky," says
Amanda Akcakoca, a Turkey expert at the European Policy Centre,
a Brussels-based think tank. "Signing it is not the same thing as
having it ratified in parliament. That's going to be the hard part."
In Turkey, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could stand in the way of the
protocols' ratification. Ankara imposed its economic blockade on
Armenia in 1993 to support Baku's efforts to retain control over
Karabakh.
During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared "that the border between Turkey
and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of Azerbaijani
occupied territories."
Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a
linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, parliamentarians from the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) have warned that it would be hard
to pass the protocols without any progress on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, as it deals with Turkey, the Armenian government has had to
contend with strong opposition, both domestically and from its large
diaspora, which is concerned that Turkey is getting a free pass on
the genocide issue.
Reconciliation boosts both countries in region
Observers say restoring relations with Turkey would bring Armenia out
of its isolation in the region and could provide the cash-strapped
country with new economic opportunities.
For Turkey, an EU-candidate country that has ambitions to play a
larger political and diplomatic role in the surrounding region and
to establish itself as an important energy transit route, restoring
ties with Armenia is also critical.
"The invasion of Georgia last summer really concentrated minds in
the region. Energy routes are the biggest game in town, and you need
security and stability and access for that. Restoring relations with
Armenia can create all kinds of synergy for regional cooperation
and stability," says Semih Idiz, a foreign affairs columnist for the
Turkish daily newspaper Milliyet.
"Restoring relations brings more credibility for the role that Turkey
wants to play in the region. It brings credibility to the vision of
zero problems with neighbors and for cooperating in the region and
Turkey gains credibility in terms of its EU dimension."