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U.S.-Russia Nuclear Accord Won't Be Ratified by Dec. 5 Deadline

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  • U.S.-Russia Nuclear Accord Won't Be Ratified by Dec. 5 Deadline

    Bloomberg

    U.S.-Russia Nuclear Accord Won't Be Ratified by Dec. 5 Deadline

    By Janine Zacharia

    Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The renewal of a treaty governing U.S. and
    Russian nuclear stockpiles likely won't be ratified by the U.S. Senate
    by the time the old one expires Dec. 5, creating a vacuum of at least
    several months.

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will arrive in Moscow on Oct. 12 to
    try to wrap up a replacement for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty,
    under which the U.S., Russia and other former Soviet republics have
    destroyed hundreds of bombers and ballistic missiles and removed
    thousands of nuclear warheads from their operational forces.

    Clinton left last night for Zurich where she is scheduled to witness
    Turkey and Armenia today sign protocols toward establishing diplomatic
    ties. She will also travel to London, Dublin, Belfast and Kazan,
    Russia, in addition to Moscow.

    While U.S. officials said they are still aiming to deliver an arms
    reduction agreement to President Barack Obama to sign by the Dec. 5
    deadline, the Senate likely won't be able to take it up until at least
    early next year.

    `Even if the administration were that adept, the Senate is not,' said
    John Isaacs, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and
    Non-Proliferation in Washington. `There's going to be a gap between
    the old START agreement and the new one.'

    Senator Robert Corker, a Tennessee Republican who met with
    U.S. negotiators Oct. 8, said in an interview that they expect a
    possible Senate ratification vote in April or May.

    Along with START, Clinton will use her trip to Moscow to address
    international issues such as Iran's nuclear program and the war in
    Afghanistan. She will meet with President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign
    Minister Sergei Lavrov.

    `Review Progress'

    `They'll review progress and provide further guidance to our
    negotiators on a successor agreement to START, they'll discuss
    bilateral and regional issues such as cooperation in Afghanistan,
    Iran, the Middle East and North Korea,' A
    .

    Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet with officials from the
    U.S., Russia and France in Vienna on Oct. 19 to discuss a project to
    enrich nuclear fuel for a research reactor in Iran.

    That meeting is aimed at exploring a method for transferring 1,200
    kilos of low-enriched uranium to Russia. Iran agreed earlier this
    month to consider sending most of its stock of enriched uranium to
    Russia and France to be converted into fuel for an Iranian research
    reactor for medical purposes.

    Gap Period

    During the gap until a new START nuclear treaty takes effect, there
    likely will be some sort of `informal agreement to live up to' until
    ratification takes place, Isaacs said.

    There is little indication the Senate will oppose a new START treaty,
    unlike the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty that President Bill
    Clinton signed and the Senate rejected, Isaacs said.

    `Deadlines are important, but even more important will be a final
    treaty that provides real benefits to our nation's security,'
    Frederick Jones, a spokesman for John Kerry, the Massachusetts
    Democrat who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
    said. `Senator Kerry is confident that our negotiators are doing all
    that they can to achieve that goal.'

    Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, the top Republican on the committee,
    said in June that `the foundation of the United States-Russian
    strategic relationship is at risk of collapsing before the end of the
    year.'

    Corker, who also serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
    said Russia likely will benefit more than the U.S. from the new
    treaty.

    `Our warheads are very aged,' Corker said. `I don't see how any of us
    could support ratifying a START treaty unless the administration makes
    an absolute commitment to modernizing our arsenal.'

    Enhancing Security

    A State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said
    a new START treaty would enhance U.S. national security. The treaty is
    meant to preserve a stable international strategic environment as well
    as verification r nuclear force, the official said.

    Getting a new treaty in place swiftly is vital, says Daryl Kimball,
    executive director of the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based
    policy group.

    Without the verification and monitoring provided by the treaty, `the
    U.S. intelligence community will be hard-pressed to provide a reliable
    assessment of what the Russians are doing over the long haul,' Kimball
    said.

    `How do you ensure you don't lose the legally binding verification and
    transparency arrangements the U.S. regards as important,' said William
    Potter, director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
    Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in
    California. `There may be some discussion at the secretary of state
    level about what are the most practical options.'

    Counting Warheads

    Among the sticking points Clinton are the number of delivery vehicles
    and warheads that each side will be limited to having and details on
    verification mechanisms.

    Obama and Medvedev agreed earlier this year to reduce U.S. and Russian
    strategic warheads to between 1,500 and 1,675 and limit delivery
    vehicles to 500 to 1,100 each.

    Under the expiring START and Moscow Treaty signed by President George
    W. Bush in 2002, the maximum allowable level of warheads is 2,200 and
    the maximum allowable level of launch vehicles is 1,600.

    The issue of how to count warheads is one of the main divisive issues,
    observers said, specifically whether to count the devices deployed on
    missiles or those kept in storage.

    `A key component of this new agreement is what are we counting as a
    strategic nuclear system, as a strategic warhead? When is something
    deployed?' Kimball said. `Do we count ballistic missiles that the
    U.S. doesn't have in a submarine but are onshore?'

    Another negotiating point is whether the treaty would limit the number
    of warheads that can be carried on each missile. There could also be a
    discussion during Clinton's visit about missile defense and whether
    the U.S. and Russia can collaborate a radar system.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Janine Zacharia in Washington
    at [email protected].
    Last Updated: October 10, 2009 00:01 EDT
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