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  • Why May Turkey Change Its Mind?

    WHY MAY TURKEY CHANGE ITS MIND?
    Hakob Badalyan

    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments-lra hos15527.html
    14:38:07 - 13/10/2009

    Answering reporters' questions at the airport, Serge Sargsyan says if
    the Turkish parliament is not going to ratify the Armenian-Turkish
    protocols why it signed them in Zurich. Really. Why did the Turks
    sign if they are not going to ratify the protocols? We may answer
    this question in the following way: not in all the countries,
    the parliament is an adjunct system of the government and does
    exceptionally what the government says. We may answer saying that there
    are countries where the political system is soberer, resistive and
    have counterbalance mechanisms which give to the country flexibility
    and great possibility in foreign issues. Perhaps, if Serge Sargsyan
    was managed to be persuaded in this question, he would have not asked
    this question at the airport. If he asks it, this means that Serge
    Sargsyan is sure such a thing is impossible and in all the countries,
    everything is decided by the will of one person or a group of people.

    What answer may be given to Serge Sargsyan question. For example,
    one of the possible answers may be that the Turkish government signs
    the protocols then it may change its mind and may not ratify them. But
    in this case, Serge Sargsyan may ask, why the Turkish government has
    to change its mind in several days. And really. What has to happen
    for the Turkish government to change its mind? Say the Turks may
    change their mind if the Armenian national football team wins the
    Turkish one during the 2010 world qualifiers. But this game does
    not decide anything because the Turks do not have any chance to pass
    the qualifiers, consequently, they may gift the game to the Armenian
    deepening the tolerant image of their nation and country that they
    are shaping by establishing relations with Armenia.

    The Turks may also change their mind because of the reason what Armenia
    did not want to make concessions in connection with the Karabakh
    issue. From this point of view, the situation is really vague. The
    Karabakh issue is not a direct condition though it is doubtless
    that the process of the normalization of the Armenian and Turkish
    relations makes logically inevitable its connection with it. But
    in this connection either, it is vague what concessions have been
    promised to the Turks that it can change its mind with regard to the
    ratification if the pledge is not fulfilled. In order to have a minimal
    idea in this connection we have to imagine what kind of concessions
    Turkey would like. It demands openly the return of released areas,
    territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and immunity of borders. But
    is this what Turkey expects in connection with Karabakh? And maybe
    Turkey does not expect any tangible move in this direction besides
    its involvement in the present process.

    Perhaps Turkey needs this to expand its geopolitical resources and
    not the "territorial integrity" of Azerbaijan. Turkey does not care
    whose army is in Horadiz if it lacks in the frameworks of those
    issues. Consequently, Turkey's expectation is to be practically
    involved in the process of the Karabakh settlement. And under the
    name of Karabakh settlement there have been taking place many wide
    developments for long time which refer to the development in our
    region as well as adjacent regions.

    This is what Turkey needs. And from this point, Turkey's expectation
    is not from Armenia but from the international society, better to
    say superpower. They may agree or refuse Turkey's involvement in the
    wide frames of regional discussions. It is another question that the
    superpowers may use Armenia for this purpose. From this point, Serge
    Sargsyan's question should be asked to superpowers whether they will
    create grounds for Turkey to change its mind and what role they have
    allocated for Armenia in all this.
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