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KARS - AKHALKALAK PROSPECT
James Hakobyan
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments-lra hos15535.html
12:08:03 - 14/10/2009
One of the topics discussed in the context of the establishment of
Armenian and Turkish relations is whether Turkey will renounce its
objective to build the Kars-Akhalkalak railway. The point is that if
the Kars-Gyumri railway is opened, Kars - Akhalkalak becomes senseless.
Some experts assess the situation this way. This assessment which seems
logic at first instant in reality does not coincide with the present
situation. The point is that Turkey will renounce the construction of
Kars- Akhalkalak railway only in one case only if "parallel" with the
normalization of the Armenian and Turkish relations, the Karabakhi
conflict is settled and Azerbaijan starts relating with Armenia on
infrastructural plane. In the opposite case, the Kars-Gyumri railway
cannot have the significance of the Kars- Akhalkalak railway.
Of course, the main meaning of the Kars- Akhalkalak railway is the
deepening of Armenia's blockade but it would be naïve to think that
Turks and Azeris would be ready to spend millions only to deepen the
blockade of Armenia. They needed the railway to enhance their influence
on regional developments. This is the reason why regardless the lack
of funds from the international public, Turkey and Azerbaijan decided
to build the railway the same. Consequently, it is little possible
that the possible restoration of Kars- Gyumri railway will prevent
the efforts of the Turkish-Azerbaijani side in connection with Kars-
Akhalkalak railway construction.
Besides all this, the question is that Turkey can hardly not have a
version of worsening its relations with Armenia and to re-close the
border. The Kars- Akhalkalak will enable Turkey close the Kars-Gyumri
if the events are developed in accordance with this scenario because
the closure of Kars- Akhalkalak and Kars-Gyumri will have its influence
on Armenia and not on the region.
So, it is naïve to think that the Turkish side will refrain from its
intentions to build the Kars- Akhalkalak railway. It may slow down a
little considering the financial crisis because the whole weight is on
Turkish and Azeri arms. But the same, if the Nagorno-Karabakh issue
is not settled the way the Turkish-Azeri side wants, the expectation
that Turkey will forget the Kars-Akhalkalak constriction is absolutely
naïve. Let alone the fact that even in case of some settlement, the
Kars- Akhalkalak is important for the Turkish-Azeri strategy because
it procures tangible flexibility and freedom in their relations with
Armenia in the region.
Moreover, in case of removing the blockade of Armenia, the Turks
are even possible to be able to convince the international society
that the Kars- Akhalkalak railway does not aim at isolating Armenia
but it is simply an additional infrastructure to secure the infinite
trade circulation in regional warm brotherhood so seizing the needed
millions from the international public.
James Hakobyan
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments-lra hos15535.html
12:08:03 - 14/10/2009
One of the topics discussed in the context of the establishment of
Armenian and Turkish relations is whether Turkey will renounce its
objective to build the Kars-Akhalkalak railway. The point is that if
the Kars-Gyumri railway is opened, Kars - Akhalkalak becomes senseless.
Some experts assess the situation this way. This assessment which seems
logic at first instant in reality does not coincide with the present
situation. The point is that Turkey will renounce the construction of
Kars- Akhalkalak railway only in one case only if "parallel" with the
normalization of the Armenian and Turkish relations, the Karabakhi
conflict is settled and Azerbaijan starts relating with Armenia on
infrastructural plane. In the opposite case, the Kars-Gyumri railway
cannot have the significance of the Kars- Akhalkalak railway.
Of course, the main meaning of the Kars- Akhalkalak railway is the
deepening of Armenia's blockade but it would be naïve to think that
Turks and Azeris would be ready to spend millions only to deepen the
blockade of Armenia. They needed the railway to enhance their influence
on regional developments. This is the reason why regardless the lack
of funds from the international public, Turkey and Azerbaijan decided
to build the railway the same. Consequently, it is little possible
that the possible restoration of Kars- Gyumri railway will prevent
the efforts of the Turkish-Azerbaijani side in connection with Kars-
Akhalkalak railway construction.
Besides all this, the question is that Turkey can hardly not have a
version of worsening its relations with Armenia and to re-close the
border. The Kars- Akhalkalak will enable Turkey close the Kars-Gyumri
if the events are developed in accordance with this scenario because
the closure of Kars- Akhalkalak and Kars-Gyumri will have its influence
on Armenia and not on the region.
So, it is naïve to think that the Turkish side will refrain from its
intentions to build the Kars- Akhalkalak railway. It may slow down a
little considering the financial crisis because the whole weight is on
Turkish and Azeri arms. But the same, if the Nagorno-Karabakh issue
is not settled the way the Turkish-Azeri side wants, the expectation
that Turkey will forget the Kars-Akhalkalak constriction is absolutely
naïve. Let alone the fact that even in case of some settlement, the
Kars- Akhalkalak is important for the Turkish-Azeri strategy because
it procures tangible flexibility and freedom in their relations with
Armenia in the region.
Moreover, in case of removing the blockade of Armenia, the Turks
are even possible to be able to convince the international society
that the Kars- Akhalkalak railway does not aim at isolating Armenia
but it is simply an additional infrastructure to secure the infinite
trade circulation in regional warm brotherhood so seizing the needed
millions from the international public.