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Ankara: The Armenians Of Georgia: A New Flashpoint In The Caucasus?

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  • Ankara: The Armenians Of Georgia: A New Flashpoint In The Caucasus?

    THE ARMENIANS OF GEORGIA: A NEW FLASHPOINT IN THE CAUCASUS?

    Journal of Turkish Weekly
    Thursday, 15 October 2009

    As Turkey and Armenia prepare to open their mutual border and begin a
    thaw in their relationship, there are fears that a recent spat between
    Tbilisi and Yerevan could heighten regional tensions once again.

    In early September, Armenia's President Serzh Sarkisian set out plans
    to improve the situation of Georgia's ethnic Armenians. He called
    for the preservation of Armenian national monuments in Georgia,
    registering the Armenian Apostolic Church and - most importantly -
    recognising Armenian as an official language in Georgia.

    The series of measures followed a visit by Georgian President Mikheil
    Saakashvili to Yerevan in June, when Georgia's Armenians formally
    called on President Sarkisian to raise their demands - for greater
    cultural and political rights - with President Saakashvili (RFE/RL,
    June 18). Not wishing to antagonise a vital ally when the 'Turkish
    thaw' still seemed distant, President Sarkisian quietly ignored the
    demands. Indeed, he actually praised the Georgian leader for his
    efforts at improving the social and economic welfare of Javakheti,
    a region mostly populated by ethnic Armenians in southern Georgia
    (RFE/RL, June 25).

    The package of measures which President Sarkisian proposed in September
    therefore came as something of a surprise to Tbilisi. Georgian
    officials reacted with scorn - State Minister for Reintegration Temur
    Iakobashvili remarked that he was "very glad that Armenian language
    is the only state language in Armenia", but that it would not be
    adopted in Georgia (Georgia Times, September 3).

    Analysts have linked the timing of the move to the Turkish thaw. The
    imminent opening of the Turkish-Armenian border (if both parliaments
    ratify the move, which is still not certain) means that Georgia's
    position as Armenia's only easy transport corridor to the West is
    at risk. With the option of moving goods west through Turkey, rather
    than north-west to Georgia across the Black Sea, Tbilisi's vital role
    as an economic lifeline for Yerevan will be lost.

    This increases Armenia's bargaining position regarding Georgia,
    and particularly the Armenians of Javakheti. The issue has been a
    matter of contention for years between the two sides. The Javakheti
    Armenians complain that their cultural and political rights are
    being ignored by Tbilisi, and frequently appeal to Yerevan for
    aid. Unwilling to irritate Georgia, Armenia has so far been muted in
    its response. Tbilisi, for its part, fears that any movements towards
    'autonomy' could turn Javakheti into another Abkhazia or South Ossetia
    - a rebel region outside the control of the central government. The
    Georgian government is fully aware that it rules over a fractured
    patchwork of different ethnic groups, all of which could - in theory -
    revolt against Tbilisi's control.

    The Abkhazia/South Ossetia parallel is instructive for another
    reason. Georgia, perhaps understandably, sees the hand of Russia
    behind every call for autonomy in Javakheti. A large Russian military
    base was located in the region until 2007, and Armenia is Russia's
    strongest ally in the South Caucasus. Both factors created suspicion
    that Russia is using its regional influence to stir up opposition to
    Georgian rule in Javakheti.

    There have been numerous protests against Georgia's rule in
    Javakheti. In April 2005, several thousand Armenians protested
    against the planned closure of the Russian military base (Central
    Asia-Caucasus Analyst, April 6 2005). The base, a Soviet legacy,
    brought much-needed employment and economic assistance to the region.

    Is Moscow behind protests against Georgian rule? It should not be ruled
    out. Georgia has sometimes arrested local Armenian activists, accusing
    them of stirring up separatism on behalf of foreign powers, presumably
    Russia, although these could also be trumped-up charges. Georgia can
    also dismiss demands to improve the social and economic conditions
    in the region, by claiming that every complaint and '.

    It is unclear whether the government in Yerevan would attempt to
    provoke Georgia on Russia's behalf. Armenia now needs as many friends
    as possible, especially whilst its cold war with Azerbaijan continues,
    and will not actively provoke Georgia. Georgian territory remains
    the shortest route to Russia, particularly for vital gas pipelines,
    which will still be needed for years, until Armenia's energy needs
    can be met by Turkey and Iran.

    The real explanation behind Armenia's criticisms of Georgia is
    domestic. With the Armenian diaspora increasingly coming to view
    President Sarkisian as a 'traitor' for his rapprochement with Turkey,
    he urgently needs to shore up his credentials as an Armenian patriot.

    What better way to do so than to issue a low-risk criticism of
    Georgia? The package of measures he proposed does not contain
    recommendations for improving the region's economic situation, its
    most urgent priority. The measures are cultural - church, history,
    and language, all important signifiers of Armenian identity. Javakheti
    is viewed by Armenian nationalists as part of 'Greater Armenia',
    which they believe should be united in a single state, so being seen
    to support Armenian identity there acts as 'compensation' for peace
    with Turkey.

    Nonetheless, the issue of Javakheti remains tense. It will only become
    more important for Armenian identity as the historical animosity
    towards Turkey begins to fade. It could become a lightning rod for
    Armenian nationalists, provoking a counter-reaction from Georgia,
    and creating a new flashpoint in the Caucasus.

    By Alexander Jackson Caucasus Update No. 50, October 12, 2009 Caucasian
    Review of International Affairs (http://www.cria-online.org)
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