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AZERBAIJAN'S ANTI-TURKISH CAMPAIGN
By Ivan Gharibyan
Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Oct 19 2009
Armenia
A few days after the Armenian-Turkish Protocols were finally signed,
official Baku mounted an all-out offensive - they must have realized
the incompatibility of the ongoing processes with the reference points
of their own policy launched many years ago.
After a few days of silence, late this week, the Azerbaijani
authorities decided to go on an offensive and show the Turkish
leaders all their resentment over the irreversible Armenia-Turkey
normalization process. Of course, for the time being, Turkey's
willingness to stop setting preconditions in this process under
international pressure is out of the question, but the processing is
running this very course now: whatever "trademark" promises may be
made by official Ankara, they are not yet indicative of any immediate
linkage between the Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh
peace processes. The Armenian and Turkish Parliaments are progressing
to successful ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, which
are most likely to be ratified and come into force before the end
of October. This, in turn, means reopening of the Armenian-Turkish
border by the end of this year.
After being convinced that the principal geopolitical players
and international mediator got "sick and tired" of dealing with
"uncompromising" Azerbaijan, which, in contrast to Armenia, will
not make any concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh, President Ilham Aliyev
decided to take a number of desperate steps hoping for a change in
developments. The other day, the Azeri leader stated Azerbaijan's
intention to refuse to supply gas to Turkey at a much-lower-than-market
price. He designated this policy as "squandering that is going
too far."
One more piece of evidence of an apparent change in the "little
brother's" attitude to its "big brother" is the Azerbaijani
authorities' decision, which is by no means in conformity with the
"centuries-old" firm friendship between the two nations. "The Shahid
lane" located at highest spot of present-day Baku -- the burial place
of the participants in the Armenian pogroms in January 1990, after
Soviet troops entered the city - is the "pride" of the city. The
Armenian and Turkish national flags alternated along the lane in
symbol of firm friendship. Now, however, after a number of top-ranking
officials visited the lane, the flags have been taken off.
Further developments are difficult to forecast. President Aliyev
is unlikely to show such political shortsightedness as to aggravate
relations with Turkey, which, is any case, is Azerbaijan most loyal
and closest ally. It must be a "tooth show" to be followed by a forced
dialogue with Ankara to find a way out of the situation. There is
only one way out. None of the international mediators conceal their
desire for a final settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict soon
after the Armenian-Turkish relations have been normalized. However,
since the Armenian authorities clearly explained major -- and most
painful -- concessions the Armenian side can afford, it is Baku's
turn now, and Turkey has to explain to Azerbaijan the inevitability
of similar painful concessions, which are of vital necessity for the
negotiating process.
By Ivan Gharibyan
Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Oct 19 2009
Armenia
A few days after the Armenian-Turkish Protocols were finally signed,
official Baku mounted an all-out offensive - they must have realized
the incompatibility of the ongoing processes with the reference points
of their own policy launched many years ago.
After a few days of silence, late this week, the Azerbaijani
authorities decided to go on an offensive and show the Turkish
leaders all their resentment over the irreversible Armenia-Turkey
normalization process. Of course, for the time being, Turkey's
willingness to stop setting preconditions in this process under
international pressure is out of the question, but the processing is
running this very course now: whatever "trademark" promises may be
made by official Ankara, they are not yet indicative of any immediate
linkage between the Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh
peace processes. The Armenian and Turkish Parliaments are progressing
to successful ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, which
are most likely to be ratified and come into force before the end
of October. This, in turn, means reopening of the Armenian-Turkish
border by the end of this year.
After being convinced that the principal geopolitical players
and international mediator got "sick and tired" of dealing with
"uncompromising" Azerbaijan, which, in contrast to Armenia, will
not make any concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh, President Ilham Aliyev
decided to take a number of desperate steps hoping for a change in
developments. The other day, the Azeri leader stated Azerbaijan's
intention to refuse to supply gas to Turkey at a much-lower-than-market
price. He designated this policy as "squandering that is going
too far."
One more piece of evidence of an apparent change in the "little
brother's" attitude to its "big brother" is the Azerbaijani
authorities' decision, which is by no means in conformity with the
"centuries-old" firm friendship between the two nations. "The Shahid
lane" located at highest spot of present-day Baku -- the burial place
of the participants in the Armenian pogroms in January 1990, after
Soviet troops entered the city - is the "pride" of the city. The
Armenian and Turkish national flags alternated along the lane in
symbol of firm friendship. Now, however, after a number of top-ranking
officials visited the lane, the flags have been taken off.
Further developments are difficult to forecast. President Aliyev
is unlikely to show such political shortsightedness as to aggravate
relations with Turkey, which, is any case, is Azerbaijan most loyal
and closest ally. It must be a "tooth show" to be followed by a forced
dialogue with Ankara to find a way out of the situation. There is
only one way out. None of the international mediators conceal their
desire for a final settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict soon
after the Armenian-Turkish relations have been normalized. However,
since the Armenian authorities clearly explained major -- and most
painful -- concessions the Armenian side can afford, it is Baku's
turn now, and Turkey has to explain to Azerbaijan the inevitability
of similar painful concessions, which are of vital necessity for the
negotiating process.