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KEY TO REGION - NAGORNYY KARABAKH
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Oct 13 2009
Russia
On Monday [12 October] Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan arrived in
Moscow on a short working visit at the invitation of President of
the Russian Federation Dmitriy Medvedev. According to the official
press release, the heads of state discussed a wide range of questions
linked to bilateral and regional cooperation and partnership in bloc
organizations, a number of international topics, and problems of
military, economic, and trade cooperation. However, as Nezavisimaya
Gazeta was told by sources in Yerevan, the main question in the talks
was a settlement for the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.
The presidents of Russia and Armenia last met in Chisinau on Saturday
[ 10 October] at the CIS summit and exchanged opinions on questions
of interstate relations. The signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols
on normalizing relations also took place
on Saturday, in Zurich.
The moving of the reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia
to the practical level gives rise to geopolitical changes in the South
Caucasus. In this light, the visit by the leader of allied Armenia to
Moscow immediately after the signing of the protocols looks perfectly
logical, particularly since the realization of a solution to the
Nagornyy Karabakh problem will imminently rise onto the agenda.
Serzh Sargsyan devoted his brief conversation with journalists at
the Zvartnots airport before he flew to Moscow to precisely this issue.
The Armenian leader gave an assurance that the question of surrendering
territories had never been discussed, including during the last talks
with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev on Saturday in Chisinau.
"The president of Azerbaijan and I have never discussed this
question... He (Ilham Aliyev -- Nezavisimaya Gazeta) is dissatisfied
with the talks in Chisinau because we only discussed two questions --
the final status of Nagornyy Karabakh and its transition status,"
Sargsyan announced. At the same time, the president of Armenia
avoided a direct answer to the question of whether the problem of
the Nagornyy Karabakh Republic [NKR] would be examined in Moscow with
Dmitriy Medvedev.
Meanwhile, Russia's interest in a settlement to Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations is obvious. In the case of a successful outcome to this
process, Moscow will perceptibly boost its position in the region and
increase its peacekeeping rating, which has reeled in the perception
of the West since August 2008, and Medvedev himself will substantially
gain political weight -- especially since by distancing itself from the
process of normalization in Armenian-Turkish relations and basically
handing them over to the "supervision" of the United States, Russia
has retained and secured Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.
"In the Armenian-Turkish context Russia's position has come down
to not resisting the process of normalization in relations between
Yerevan and Ankara," head of the Yerevan Center for Globalization and
Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan considers. In his words, Moscow is not
as interested in the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border as the
United States and Europe are, although the boosting of the regional
role of allied Yerevan and the weakening of those functions for Tbilisi
is advantageous to it. "In exchange for this non-interference Moscow
has received the West's agreement to an active role in the Karabakh
process. Its influence in the OSCE Minsk Group, which is in charge of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, will probably be boosted. This
is very topical for the Armenian side, since as soon as the protocols
on normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations were signed, in Ankara Prime
Minister Erdogan 'recalled' the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,
without the restoration of which, in his words, Armenian-Turkish
relations will not move into the practical phase," Grigoryan told
Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The political scientist considers that during the high level talks in
Moscow the sides will try to define the possible degree of acceleration
of a settlement to the Karabakh problem and will be able to "settle"
Russia's ultimate interests. "It is obvious that Russia has an interest
in the military component of a possible peacekeeping operation in
the NKR, which will de facto lead to the expansion of its military
presence in the South Caucasus. Baku is against this. Neither does
Stepanakert for the moment consider the appearance of foreign military
structures on the territory of the NKR necessary. Taking this into
account, it can be supposed that there will not be any perceptible
acceleration in the Karabakh settlement for the moment," Grigoryan
considers. In order to attain the agreement of all the participants in
the conflict to the entry of precisely Russian peacekeeping subunits
to the NKR, in Grigoryan's opinion, Moscow will also need to hold
talks with Turkey, which is all the same starting to reach the stage
of putting its political interests higher than its ethnic proximity
to Azerbaijan. "We have a whole set of mutually linked questions,
so there will not be any sharp acceleration in a settlement to the
problem of the NKR," Stepan Grigoryan told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Oct 13 2009
Russia
On Monday [12 October] Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan arrived in
Moscow on a short working visit at the invitation of President of
the Russian Federation Dmitriy Medvedev. According to the official
press release, the heads of state discussed a wide range of questions
linked to bilateral and regional cooperation and partnership in bloc
organizations, a number of international topics, and problems of
military, economic, and trade cooperation. However, as Nezavisimaya
Gazeta was told by sources in Yerevan, the main question in the talks
was a settlement for the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.
The presidents of Russia and Armenia last met in Chisinau on Saturday
[ 10 October] at the CIS summit and exchanged opinions on questions
of interstate relations. The signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols
on normalizing relations also took place
on Saturday, in Zurich.
The moving of the reconciliation process between Turkey and Armenia
to the practical level gives rise to geopolitical changes in the South
Caucasus. In this light, the visit by the leader of allied Armenia to
Moscow immediately after the signing of the protocols looks perfectly
logical, particularly since the realization of a solution to the
Nagornyy Karabakh problem will imminently rise onto the agenda.
Serzh Sargsyan devoted his brief conversation with journalists at
the Zvartnots airport before he flew to Moscow to precisely this issue.
The Armenian leader gave an assurance that the question of surrendering
territories had never been discussed, including during the last talks
with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev on Saturday in Chisinau.
"The president of Azerbaijan and I have never discussed this
question... He (Ilham Aliyev -- Nezavisimaya Gazeta) is dissatisfied
with the talks in Chisinau because we only discussed two questions --
the final status of Nagornyy Karabakh and its transition status,"
Sargsyan announced. At the same time, the president of Armenia
avoided a direct answer to the question of whether the problem of
the Nagornyy Karabakh Republic [NKR] would be examined in Moscow with
Dmitriy Medvedev.
Meanwhile, Russia's interest in a settlement to Armenian-Azerbaijani
relations is obvious. In the case of a successful outcome to this
process, Moscow will perceptibly boost its position in the region and
increase its peacekeeping rating, which has reeled in the perception
of the West since August 2008, and Medvedev himself will substantially
gain political weight -- especially since by distancing itself from the
process of normalization in Armenian-Turkish relations and basically
handing them over to the "supervision" of the United States, Russia
has retained and secured Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.
"In the Armenian-Turkish context Russia's position has come down
to not resisting the process of normalization in relations between
Yerevan and Ankara," head of the Yerevan Center for Globalization and
Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan considers. In his words, Moscow is not
as interested in the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border as the
United States and Europe are, although the boosting of the regional
role of allied Yerevan and the weakening of those functions for Tbilisi
is advantageous to it. "In exchange for this non-interference Moscow
has received the West's agreement to an active role in the Karabakh
process. Its influence in the OSCE Minsk Group, which is in charge of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, will probably be boosted. This
is very topical for the Armenian side, since as soon as the protocols
on normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations were signed, in Ankara Prime
Minister Erdogan 'recalled' the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,
without the restoration of which, in his words, Armenian-Turkish
relations will not move into the practical phase," Grigoryan told
Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The political scientist considers that during the high level talks in
Moscow the sides will try to define the possible degree of acceleration
of a settlement to the Karabakh problem and will be able to "settle"
Russia's ultimate interests. "It is obvious that Russia has an interest
in the military component of a possible peacekeeping operation in
the NKR, which will de facto lead to the expansion of its military
presence in the South Caucasus. Baku is against this. Neither does
Stepanakert for the moment consider the appearance of foreign military
structures on the territory of the NKR necessary. Taking this into
account, it can be supposed that there will not be any perceptible
acceleration in the Karabakh settlement for the moment," Grigoryan
considers. In order to attain the agreement of all the participants in
the conflict to the entry of precisely Russian peacekeeping subunits
to the NKR, in Grigoryan's opinion, Moscow will also need to hold
talks with Turkey, which is all the same starting to reach the stage
of putting its political interests higher than its ethnic proximity
to Azerbaijan. "We have a whole set of mutually linked questions,
so there will not be any sharp acceleration in a settlement to the
problem of the NKR," Stepan Grigoryan told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.