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A SECRET AGREEMENT MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN CONCLUDED ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH: EURASIAN STRATEGY PROJECT DIRECTOR
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politi cs/55262.html
Sept 3 2009
Azerbaijan
Director of Eurasian Strategy Project and Georgetown University
professor Cory Welt spoke in an interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: Turkey and Armenia have agreed to start negotiations to
resume diplomatic ties. Turkey has stated on numerous occasions that
border between Turkey and Armenia will not be reopened until occupied
Azerbaijani lands are freed. Will establishment of diplomatic ties
between Armenia and Turkey have a positive impact on resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Cory Welt: It is true that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - and
Azerbaijan's interests in general - appear to be overlooked in the
text of the protocols. This is not too surprising from the perspective
of the documents themselves, which outline principles of bilateral
relations, but it does seem strange given the promise of the Turkish
leadership a few months ago that progress would have to be made on
Nagorno-Karabakh before Turkey opened its border. We can only assume
one of two things: either a secret agreement has already been concluded
on Nagorno-Karabakh that will allow for simultaneous progress on
the conflict, in which case we will hear more about it shortly, or -
and in my estimation more realistically - the Turkish government is
going to allow parliament, which still has to ratify the protocol,
to hold out for concrete progress on Karabakh before it does so.
This could lead to a positive outcome for Azerbaijan. The more Armenia
- and Armenian society - is convinced that it is on the brink of
normal relations with Turkey, the more likely it is that Yerevan will
be further encouraged to take steps to resolve the conflict. The key
is for Azerbaijan not to have too high expectations about receiving
everything it believes it is owed in too short a timeframe. The
resolution of the Karabakh conflict will undoubtedly be a gradual
process.
Q: There is opinion that for Armenia process of normalizing
relationship with Turkey can give opposite results, that is, reopening
of borders can lead to "negative consequences". What do "negative
consequences" imply?
A: Well, those for whom Turkish recognition of the Armenian genocide
is the paramount concern may fear that normalization of relations
with Turkey will further reduce the incentive for Turkey to ever
recognize the genocide, and also dampen the incentive of countries
like the United States to also push for official recognition. Also,
even if the border were to open without a full resolution of the
Karabakh conflict, conceivably some may fear that with the easing of
pressure on Armenia from Turkey, Armenian society itself will over
time lost interest in the Karabakh cause and be more willing to engage
in compromises to return territory to Azerbaijan. For those that are
against this, such an outcome would be a negative one.
Q: In what case is military settlement to the Karabakh conflict
possible? Could this be a solution to the problem given the fact that
the negotiations have lasted for quite long period of time?
A: It is very difficult for me to predict that Azerbaijan might
pursue a military resolution to the conflict after the Russia-Georgia
war. Before the war, the Azerbaijani government might have convinced
itself that such a solution was possible, but now it should be
clear that Russia, as Armenia's military ally, would be compelled to
come to Armenia's defense in the event of hostilities. We shouldn't
exclude the possibility of wars being fought for reasons other than
to achieve victory, but at this point in time it seems unlikely that
such would occur.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politi cs/55262.html
Sept 3 2009
Azerbaijan
Director of Eurasian Strategy Project and Georgetown University
professor Cory Welt spoke in an interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: Turkey and Armenia have agreed to start negotiations to
resume diplomatic ties. Turkey has stated on numerous occasions that
border between Turkey and Armenia will not be reopened until occupied
Azerbaijani lands are freed. Will establishment of diplomatic ties
between Armenia and Turkey have a positive impact on resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Cory Welt: It is true that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - and
Azerbaijan's interests in general - appear to be overlooked in the
text of the protocols. This is not too surprising from the perspective
of the documents themselves, which outline principles of bilateral
relations, but it does seem strange given the promise of the Turkish
leadership a few months ago that progress would have to be made on
Nagorno-Karabakh before Turkey opened its border. We can only assume
one of two things: either a secret agreement has already been concluded
on Nagorno-Karabakh that will allow for simultaneous progress on
the conflict, in which case we will hear more about it shortly, or -
and in my estimation more realistically - the Turkish government is
going to allow parliament, which still has to ratify the protocol,
to hold out for concrete progress on Karabakh before it does so.
This could lead to a positive outcome for Azerbaijan. The more Armenia
- and Armenian society - is convinced that it is on the brink of
normal relations with Turkey, the more likely it is that Yerevan will
be further encouraged to take steps to resolve the conflict. The key
is for Azerbaijan not to have too high expectations about receiving
everything it believes it is owed in too short a timeframe. The
resolution of the Karabakh conflict will undoubtedly be a gradual
process.
Q: There is opinion that for Armenia process of normalizing
relationship with Turkey can give opposite results, that is, reopening
of borders can lead to "negative consequences". What do "negative
consequences" imply?
A: Well, those for whom Turkish recognition of the Armenian genocide
is the paramount concern may fear that normalization of relations
with Turkey will further reduce the incentive for Turkey to ever
recognize the genocide, and also dampen the incentive of countries
like the United States to also push for official recognition. Also,
even if the border were to open without a full resolution of the
Karabakh conflict, conceivably some may fear that with the easing of
pressure on Armenia from Turkey, Armenian society itself will over
time lost interest in the Karabakh cause and be more willing to engage
in compromises to return territory to Azerbaijan. For those that are
against this, such an outcome would be a negative one.
Q: In what case is military settlement to the Karabakh conflict
possible? Could this be a solution to the problem given the fact that
the negotiations have lasted for quite long period of time?
A: It is very difficult for me to predict that Azerbaijan might
pursue a military resolution to the conflict after the Russia-Georgia
war. Before the war, the Azerbaijani government might have convinced
itself that such a solution was possible, but now it should be
clear that Russia, as Armenia's military ally, would be compelled to
come to Armenia's defense in the event of hostilities. We shouldn't
exclude the possibility of wars being fought for reasons other than
to achieve victory, but at this point in time it seems unlikely that
such would occur.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress