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Armenia-Turkey Deal A Major Step Forward: Analysts

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  • Armenia-Turkey Deal A Major Step Forward: Analysts

    ARMENIA-TURKEY DEAL A MAJOR STEP FORWARD: ANALYSTS
    by Mariam Harutunian

    Agence France Presse
    September 1, 2009 Tuesday 11:08 AM GMT

    Armenia and Turkey have taken a major step forward by agreeing to a
    plan for establishing diplomatic ties, experts said Tuesday, but the
    deal does not yet mark an end to decades of hostility.

    Domestic opposition, objections from Turkey's ally Azerbaijan and
    lingering distrust between the two countries could still derail their
    efforts to overcome nearly a century of acrimony, analysts said.

    Most nonetheless agreed that the creation of a timetable for
    establishing ties and re-opening their long-sealed border was an
    historic moment.

    "It is a very, very serious step towards the completion of the
    negotiating process, and the questions of the border re-opening and
    the establishment of diplomatic ties will be solved very soon.... It
    is a matter of six months to a year," Yerevan-based political analyst
    Alexander Iskandarian said.

    The agreement announced Monday foresees the signing of two protocols
    on establishing diplomatic relations and developing bilateral ties
    following six weeks of "internal political consultations".

    Turkey has long refused to establish diplomatic links with Armenia
    over Yerevan's efforts to have World War I-era massacres of Armenians
    by Ottoman Turks recognised as genocide -- a label Turkey strongly
    rejects.

    Turkey also closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with
    ally Azerbaijan over Yerevan's backing of ethnic Armenian separatists
    in the breakaway Nagorny Karabakh region.

    Analysts said the agreement of a precise timetable was a sign of the
    seriousness of the plan.

    "This is fantastic news, it seems these are very serious declarations,
    a very serious timetable," said Hugh Pope, a Turkey analyst for the
    International Crisis Group.

    "Huge progress has been made, starting with intellectuals and
    academics and then with some business people getting involved and
    even ex-officials have been trying to get Turkey away from the old
    nationalist rhetorics," he said.

    Washington and Paris on Monday warmly welcomed the deal, which
    followed a year of Swiss-brokered talks and a historic visit by Turkish
    President Abdullah Gul to Armenia for a football match last September.

    Still, it is unclear how long the process of ratification could
    take and Turkey has already cast some doubts on the re-opening of
    the border.

    "At the moment opening the border is not foreseen and it is not the
    priority," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkey's NTV
    channel late Monday. He later added that Turkey would take no action
    "that would hurt the interests of Azerbaijan".

    Azerbaijani foreign ministry spokesman Elkhan Polukhov said Tuesday
    that Baku was confident Ankara would not agree to open the border
    without a deal on Nagorny Karabakh.

    "Azerbaijan's position is based on numerous statements from
    high-ranking officials in Turkey on the question of opening the
    Armenian-Turkish border," he told AFP. "The opening of the border
    without the settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict would
    contradict the interests of Azerbaijan."

    Turkey's immediate raising of Azerbaijan's interests following
    Monday's announcement could signal a step back on the border issue,
    Armenian political analyst Sergei Shakarian said.

    "The border will not be re-opened, not within six weeks or six months,
    or in two years, because the Karabakh issue will not be resolved
    within this time," he said.

    The agreement could also face strong domestic opposition in both
    countries, analysts said, and the ratification process could drag on.

    "It is a very positive development, but of course we cannot say that
    the thing is in the bag," former Turkish diplomat Ilter Turkmen told
    CNN-Turk television.

    "There is a long process ahead of us, first with six weeks of
    negotiations, then the ratification of the protocols before
    parliament. There is no certainty over what will happen in
    parliament. It is likely that the opposition will oppose this project,
    that there will be long arguments."

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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