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How long the process between Armenia and Turkey can last...

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  • How long the process between Armenia and Turkey can last...

    The Economist: how long the process between Armenia and Turkey can
    last is anybody's guess
    05.09.2009 18:06 GMT+04:00

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ This week Armenia and Turkey announced plans for six
    weeks of `internal political consultations' before establishing
    diplomatic ties and reopening their border. Coming after several
    months of Swiss mediation and arm-twisting by America, the declaration
    makes reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia a real prospect - but
    not a foregone conclusion, The Economist writes.

    Hopes of a new friendship blossomed in September 2008 when Turkey's
    president, Abdullah Gul, became the first modern Turkish leader to
    visit Armenia, for a football World Cup qualifier. A full deal seemed
    imminent in April when the two countries initialed a preliminary
    agreement, including a plan to reopen the border¦ Turkey had
    earlier insisted that it would not reopen the border until Armenia and
    Azerbaijan had made peace. But in April it seemed to change tack. The
    main reason was to stop America's Congress adopting a resolution to
    label the mass slaughter of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as
    genocide. It worked: Barack Obama did not use the term in his annual
    April 24th statement, the article says.

    Yet days later the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
    reverted to previous policy by insisting that peace with Armenia would
    come only if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was solved. The switch back
    reflected nationalist reaction at home as well as Azerbaijan's threat
    to turn towards Russia. Armenia's president, Serzh Sargsyan,
    retaliated by saying he would not attend a return football match in
    Turkey on October 14th unless the border was on the verge of being
    reopened, it says.

    This week's announcement is calculated to ensure that Mr Sargsyan
    comes to the match, maintaining the façade of
    reconciliation. By careful coincidence the time for internal political
    consultations ends just before the match. Links of various sorts
    between the two countries are growing fast and Armenian tourists h
    ty to a deal from opposition parties in both countries is strong.

    Armenia's hardline nationalists are furious that the government has
    agreed both to the present border and to a joint historical commission
    that might yet call the genocide into doubt. They also accuse Mr
    Sargsyan of selling out Karabakh. Even if the April 22nd deal is
    accepted, another hurdle has been raised: both countries' parliaments
    must agree. To stifle domestic anger (and perhaps embarrass the Turks)
    Armenia also chose to publish the full text of the agreements in
    April. They do not mention Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Turkey's response has been contradictory. Its foreign minister, Ahmet
    Davutoglu, insists that he hopes that the border will be reopened by
    the end of the year. But he also says that peace with Armenia is
    sustainable only if it makes peace with Azerbaijan. Long-running talks
    between Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be going nowhere. Mr
    Davutoglu's most accurate assertion may be that Turkey and Armenia are
    at the start of a `long process.' How long is anybody's guess, the
    article says.
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