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Analysis: Armenian-Turkish Ties Pro Et Contra

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  • Analysis: Armenian-Turkish Ties Pro Et Contra

    ANALYSIS: ARMENIAN-TURKISH TIES PRO ET CONTRA

    Aysor
    Sept 8 2009
    Armenia

    Armenian-Turkish ties and published Protocols in particular are in
    the spotlight of political debates for a long time.

    By the way the sounding assessments do not seem to be very defensible
    or exclusive. And the problem, meanwhile, boils down to some basic
    questions:

    - How sincere and truthful is Turkey's position in the initiated
    dialogue.

    - Whether Armenia has its own interest in ties or is under pressure
    of superpowers.

    - Starting the dialogue Turkey may stretch it in order to get an
    assignment from Armenia associated to Karabakh issue.

    - Having negotiations with Turkey through the mutual recognition of
    borders and sovereignty, Armenia, in fact, is recognizing Turkey in
    its current borders and is reaffirming the provisions of the Treaty
    of Kars.

    - Within the historians commission framework created during the
    normalization of relations there may arise a dispute on Armenian
    Genocide.

    Basically these are the questions that concern Armenian society, its
    population, politicians and political parties. Some politicians try to
    make higher PR around such important and topical issues, well-getting
    that relations with Turkey are traditionally the emotional topic. The
    political hysteria, which they call patriotism, shows the immaturity
    of some segments of the culture of Armenia's political field. That
    comes into being at the very important to people and country periods.

    By refraining from these political strains and realizing the importance
    of the problem for our nation and state, we try to understand gradually
    what's the matter and what possible risks may arise in the process
    of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

    Thus, in the list of problems the top one is how sincere is
    Ankara. First lets get that no sincere is applicable in policy and
    in international ties in particular. Interest is instead.

    Meanwhile, Ankara has rethought its role in region and realized that
    Azerbaijani 'ballast" keeps out the opportunities for Turkey's more
    effective partnership to Europe, a partnership of a new quality to
    U.S., as a regional and possibly macro-regional superpower.

    Principle of "One nation - two states", which has traditionally been
    guided by Turkey, is now rather obstacle than a subsidiary phenomenon,
    so one needs to engage in dialogue not only with the official Yerevan,
    but also with another major player in region - Moscow. And not only
    engage in dialogue but find a common key to regional problems.

    This does not mean the easy compromises of Ankara, it contrary will
    choose the way of stretched negotiations, and will try to solve
    some additional problems, will also try to correct some mistakes of
    its own. Many things will depend on Yerevan, tightening positions
    on various issues time after time (such as Serzh Sargsyan's famous
    statement addressed to Turkey) and related information services may
    lead to the situation Ankara will not be happy with, and the process
    will be critiqued by international community.

    Another factor of risk is the concern that Armenia's national
    interests can be dissolved in the interests of the superpowers
    involved in the process. For a long time, Armenia is the bearer of
    the initiative foreign policy. This includes activity and integration
    in all processes we interested in. One can hardly recall a single
    case when countries of region and the superpowers with their own
    interests came to agreement. The normalization of Armenian-Turkish
    relations has led to almost common interests and goals of Brussels,
    Moscow and Washington. The interests of Armenia today are clearly
    defined and clearly manifested even when the approaches of any of
    poles do not coincide with ours.

    It has become a tradition, when Ankara in order to calm his
    "Jr. Brother" reminds that Armenian-Turkish relations and Karabakh
    negotiation processes are related to each other. Today, when the
    documents are announced, we can see how interrelated they are. No
    single word, and Armenian side always spoke about it.

    Ankara will not change its style of negotiations but it realizes that
    Azerbaijan's mark will become sharp. That is why Turkey tries now to
    include Karabakh issue in the agenda of the UN Security Council.

    Another concern is associated with Armenian-Turkish intergovernmental
    commission and the historians subcommittee aimed "to realize the
    historical perspective of the dialogue between the two peoples,
    aiming at the restoration of mutual confidence, including through an
    impartial scientific study of historical documents and archives in
    order to clarify the existing problems and formulate proposals."

    This can be commented in different ways. However before all the
    Armenian side has repeatedly told the issue of Genocide could not
    be debated, another case that bilateral consultation on Genocide,
    Turkish General Staff MD archives opening can. Besides these bilateral
    consultation on Genocide and archives opening will be filled by topics
    of current Armenian heritage in Turkey.

    Experts and political leaders notice the main concern: that is the
    borders recognition. Lets try to understand what is the problem. First,
    note, Armenia has long recognized borders of Turkey, and Treaty of
    Kars is out of discussions, as FM noted a day before. One can make
    sure by reading the published protocols.

    Summarizing, we note that it is necessary to understand an
    important and simple truth: today, when the region is experiencing
    transformation, one should not show the formal patriotism all around
    the world. One can engage in constructive discussions instead, which
    clearly bring a great favor to country.
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