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Georgia's Fate And Secret Agreement On Karabakh

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  • Georgia's Fate And Secret Agreement On Karabakh

    GEORGIA'S FATE AND SECRET AGREEMENT ON KARABAKH
    Stanislav Tarasov

    WPS Agency
    Rossiyskie vesti
    DEFENSE and SECURITY
    September 14, 2009 Monday
    Russia

    ARE RF AND TURKEY COVERTLY COORDINATING THEIR POLICIES IN THE
    TRANS-CAUCASUS?; RF and Turkey may tacitly work out joint strategies
    in Trans-Caucasus issues

    Boats of the Georgian coast guard detained the Turkish tanker
    Buket. There were a number of similar incidents between Georgia and
    Abkhazia. However, this time Georgia behaved confrontationally: the
    court resolved, besides the penalty put in such cases, to sentence
    the Turkish captain to 24 years of imprisonment.

    Ankara reacted quickly. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs voiced
    vigorous protests against the verdict against the captain. Moreover,
    in a context of the situation it is impossible to exclude that Ankara
    may hint at the possibility of recognizing Abkhaz independence. The
    official RF foreign ministry representative announced that "instances
    of capture by Georgia of ships from third countries at the coast of
    Abkhazia are fraught with an aggravation in the military-political
    situation in the region". Thereupon the Abkhaz president Sergey Bagapsh
    issued an order to the navy of republic to destroy the Georgian
    ships violating sea border of the republic. And, more importantly,
    the decision has been made that protection of ships bound for Abkhaz
    ports will be provided by the Russian navy.

    The events were not limited by a single Georgian-Abkhaz incident. After
    the Turkish-Armenian "protocols" were initially signed, which made
    a lot of noise throughout the world, providing normalization in
    relations between the two countries, the president of Armenia Serzh
    Sargsyan decided to address the problems of Armenians in Dzhavakha
    at a meeting of representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
    central office and the country's diplomatic corps:

    "Our policy concerning Dzhavakha should start with the principle of
    "Integration without merging". I think that the steps directed to
    a recognition of the Armenian language in Georgia, maintenance of
    registration of the Armenian Apostolic church, protection of Armenian
    monuments, will promote a strengthening of the Armenian-Georgian
    friendship".

    Some analysts in Georgia consider this statement by the Armenian
    leader as "an element in some unofficial games". Georgian expert Mamuka
    Areshidze said "the former president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, on
    the contrary, urged Armenians living in Georgia to study the Georgian
    language". There was a shootout on the Armenia border a few days ago in
    which three Georgian servicemen were killed. The Minister for Foreign
    Affairs of Georgia Grigol Vashadze expressed himself in an original
    way with regard to the statement by Serzh Sargsyan on the status of
    the Armenian language in Georgia during a working visit of Yerevan:
    "We in Georgia treat all thoughts expressed by Armenia with deep
    attention and respect. The president of Armenia did not say it is
    necessary to declare the Armenian language regional, he said that it
    would be useful to discuss this idea".

    There is a great deal of understanding in Tbilisi and Yerevan that the
    so-called "language" problem in Dzhavakha is capable, under certain
    conditions, of becoming a prelude to an appreciable straining of
    relations between two neighbor countries of the Trans-Caucasus, if not
    to a conflict. At any rate, the statement by the Armenian president
    is capable of agitating both the Georgian Armenians, and ethnic
    Azerbaijanis compactly living on territory of Georgia. The attempts by
    Tbilisi to integrate the country's ethnic minorities other after the
    Caucasian crisis have largely failed. Therefore the main issue is now
    why the president of Armenia took the first probing step concerning
    Georgia now. Whether is it a structural link of a wide context of the
    general actions by Turkey and Russia in different directions, including
    a reaction to the capture of ships by the Georgian coast guard.

    It is interesting to see the reaction by high-ranking Azerbaijani
    officials to some publications in the Russian and Turkish media. The
    head of the Azerbaijan president's administration department of
    international contacts Novruz Mamedov announced the other day that
    he was shocked "by the appearance of a report in the Turkish Bugun
    newspaper, according to which the president of Azerbaijan, "cutting
    short a visit of Georgia, returned to the country, and called an
    emergency meeting" immediately after the initial signing of the
    "protocols" containing provisions to normalize the relations between
    Armenia and Turkey. Novruz Mamedov refuted the claim that "an emergency
    meeting with participation of responsible heads of administration,
    representatives by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
    management of the Ministry of national security of the country ",
    but not "Ilham Aliev's interrupted visit to Georgia". And after
    all, foreign visits by the head of Azerbaijan are usually widely
    announced. This time it was not, which points to conclusions. It was
    a first.

    Secondly, it is hardly a coincidence that the Russian and Turkish
    sources began to broadcast the same information simultaneously,
    as many analysts noted.

    Certainly, different versions by many analysts concerning the reasons
    for an appreciable aggravation in the Trans-Caucasus situation
    are connected in many respects by the fact that the majority of
    negotiations - from the Karabakh settlement to the "roadmap" and
    "protocols", are conducted behind closed doors. For example, the
    Georgetown University Euroasian strategic project director Cory
    Welthom suggested it might be possible that "a confidential agreement
    on Karabakh" may exist.

    If he is right, the recent events in the Trans-Caucasus form a
    logical sequence.
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