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EX-MINISTER SAYS ARMENIAN-TURKISH TALKS AIMED AT OUSTING RUSSIA FROM REGION
168 Zham
Sept 1 2009
Armenia
Through talks with Armenia, Turkey and the USA are aiming to oust
Russia from the South Caucasus region, former Armenian Defence
Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan has said in an interview with
168 Zham newspaper. The two NATO allies need overland lines of
communication with Afghanistan, they want to set up military bases
and influence the region, Harutyunyan said. But the former minister
said that the settlement of neither Turkish-Armenian relations nor
Armenian-Azerbaijani relations could be achieved any time soon. The
following is the text of the interview with former Defence Minister
Vagharshak Harutyunyan by moderate opposition Armenian newspaper 168
Zham on 1 September headlined "There won't be any progress in the
upcoming months"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
[168 Zham] What is the current status of negotiations on the settlement
of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?
[Harutyunyan] If we look at the negotiation process, we can say that
the Armenian side has been defeated as of today. There is not a single
provision in favour of Armenia in the publicized Madrid principles.
[168 Zham] But there is an opinion that the provision on the NKR's
[breakaway Nagornyy Karabakh republic] final status is an achievement
and the status issue will be resolved in favour of Karabakh.
No need for referendum on Karabakh status
[Harutyunyan] Right, there wasn't such a formulation in the previous
proposals, but previously the proposals were discussed in relevant
government institutions and were not accepted. On the other hand,
the Madrid principles have been discussed secretly and accepted
as a basis for the talks. What referendum are we talking about
when a referendum has already been conducted in Karabakh and the
NKR has seceded from Azerbaijan according to the USSR laws. By
accepting the Madrid principles, we also question the fact of the
held referendum. Second, it does not mention when and where the
promised referendum will be conducted. This is simply a diplomatic
move to make the Armenian side agree to sign the paper and go for an
interim solution. And, if nonetheless, the referendum is to be held,
the Armenian side should demand that the referendum be held first and
territories [Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani districts around Nagornyy
Karabakh] be returned afterwards. Or do them in parallel. The return
of territories, which will undermine the NKR's security, followed
by a referendum should be avoided. This option is the idea of the
[OSCE Minsk Group] co-chairs and the USA is the godfather of it. This
option reflects the US and Turkish interests.
[168 Zham] Is it important for the USA whether or not the NKR remains
within Azerbaijan?
Turkey, USA want to oust Russia from region
[Harutyunyan] No, it is not important even for Turkey. Turkey attaches
importance to the road linking [Azerbaijani exclave] Naxcivan to
[Armenia's] Meghri and Azerbaijan and to ousting Russia from the
region. This idea unifies Turkey and the USA. Recently the Turkish
defence minister said in the USA that Turkey and America should do
everything to keep Armenia away from the Russian Federation and Iran in
order to have [Armenia] direct its policy towards the West. Azerbaijan
is also interested in ousting Russia from the region since it thinks
that Russia backs Armenia. Moreover, they are convinced that Russia
secured the victory for Armenians [in the Karabakh war]. In the NKR
issue Turkey is restricted by Azerbaijan's position. If you remember,
[Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev said that if you concede and
open the borders we will raise gas prices. Turkey pays 80-90 dollars
to Azerbaijan per cubic meter of gas. For Russian gas Turkey pays
450 dollars while for Egyptian gas Turkey pays 400 dollars.
[168 Zham] The events are developing rapidly around the NKR and
the regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations, but it seems that the
negotiations are in deadlock.
[Harutyunyan] Over the past period there were moments when they said
that soon the issue would be solved. But until today the NKR issue
has not been settled. Do you remember that in 2000 when the Meghri
option [exchanging Azerbaijan's breakaway Nagornyy Karabakh region to
Armenia's Meghri Region] was on the agenda, [former Armenian President
Robert] Kocharyan dismissed those officials who were against the Meghri
option? Some Azerbaijani, Turkish, Georgian and American officials
welcomed his step saying that the replacement of the authorities was
the right step and that it would resolve the NKR issue and would bring
stability to the region. But after the failure of the project, the
US co-chair [of the OSCE Minsk Group] had to say that the presidents
were ready but people were not. And now the co-chairs are saying
the same. Their interests demand a speedy solution, and what kind
of solution is another topic. They need a corridor, overland lines
of communication with Afghanistan. There are issues of setting up
military bases and influencing the region.
[168 Zham] Nevertheless, in the near future a series of events
are expected in that field, i.e. the updated version of the Madrid
principles, replacement of the co-chairs and [Armenian President]
Serzh Sargsyan's possible visit to Turkey. What settlements do you
predict with regards to these expectations?
No progress expected in Armenian-Turkish, Armenian-Azerbaijani
negotiations
[Harutyunyan] There won't be any progress in the upcoming months. They
want to speed up the settlement, but in the NKR issue settlement
it will be rather difficult to reach agreement. The same is with
Turkey on the border opening. In the context of regional influence,
the USA attaches importance to the Armenian-Turkish border opening
and for that purpose it might even put pressure on its military ally
[Turkey] playing the card of the genocide recognition. I do not see
the possibility of opening the border at this point. The Turkish
authorities would like to open the border with Armenia since Armenia
hinders Turkey's efforts to eventually establish its influence in the
region. By opening the border Turkey gains economic and political
leverages to influence the region. But in case of border opening,
Azerbaijan, on the one hand, and the Turkish people, on the other
hand, will accuse it [the Turkish government] of treachery since
anti-Armenian moods are strong in Turkey.
[168 Zham] Thus, Azerbaijan is a factor in the region.
[Harutyunyan] Just the other way around, Armenia is a factor, because
the key to the NKR settlement is in the hands of Armenia.
[168 Zham] Even now when they are discussing the return of seven
districts [Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani districts around Nagornyy
Karabakh]?
[Harutyunyan] You are right, they are discussing this. But the
discussion won't become reality. One of the reasons is that Azerbaijan
does not agree even to a blurred formulation of a referendum in the
Madrid principles. And Armenia has made all possible concessions in
the negotiations process, but the key to the final settlement of the
issue is in the hands of Armenia. The strategy of the negotiations
should be changed.
[168 Zham] Don't the Armenian authorities realize that fact? What
prevents them from toughening the talks policy like Aliyev did?
[Harutyunyan] The negotiation process went wrong in 1998 when the
NKR was ousted from the process due to Armenia's fault and the
Meghri issue was included in the agenda. The Armenian side conceded
with the hope that it would achieve the goal if the co-chairs
put pressure on Azerbaijan to approve the NKR's independence. In
addition, today there is pressure on Armenia regarding the rigged
[February 2008 presidential] election results and 1 March events
[post-election unrest]. In parallel to the negotiations process,
it [this pressure] either grows at some point or gets out of agenda
depending on the Armenian position in the negotiations. In order to fix
the situation we have to go back to the real picture of the conflict,
to the reality that Azerbaijan started the war and the consequences
are its fault. The conflict is tripartite and it is not possible
to negotiate without [Nagornyy] Karabakh. Armenia should table the
issue of refugees, Armenian territories occupied by Azerbaijan and
the issue of communications.
168 Zham
Sept 1 2009
Armenia
Through talks with Armenia, Turkey and the USA are aiming to oust
Russia from the South Caucasus region, former Armenian Defence
Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan has said in an interview with
168 Zham newspaper. The two NATO allies need overland lines of
communication with Afghanistan, they want to set up military bases
and influence the region, Harutyunyan said. But the former minister
said that the settlement of neither Turkish-Armenian relations nor
Armenian-Azerbaijani relations could be achieved any time soon. The
following is the text of the interview with former Defence Minister
Vagharshak Harutyunyan by moderate opposition Armenian newspaper 168
Zham on 1 September headlined "There won't be any progress in the
upcoming months"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
[168 Zham] What is the current status of negotiations on the settlement
of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?
[Harutyunyan] If we look at the negotiation process, we can say that
the Armenian side has been defeated as of today. There is not a single
provision in favour of Armenia in the publicized Madrid principles.
[168 Zham] But there is an opinion that the provision on the NKR's
[breakaway Nagornyy Karabakh republic] final status is an achievement
and the status issue will be resolved in favour of Karabakh.
No need for referendum on Karabakh status
[Harutyunyan] Right, there wasn't such a formulation in the previous
proposals, but previously the proposals were discussed in relevant
government institutions and were not accepted. On the other hand,
the Madrid principles have been discussed secretly and accepted
as a basis for the talks. What referendum are we talking about
when a referendum has already been conducted in Karabakh and the
NKR has seceded from Azerbaijan according to the USSR laws. By
accepting the Madrid principles, we also question the fact of the
held referendum. Second, it does not mention when and where the
promised referendum will be conducted. This is simply a diplomatic
move to make the Armenian side agree to sign the paper and go for an
interim solution. And, if nonetheless, the referendum is to be held,
the Armenian side should demand that the referendum be held first and
territories [Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani districts around Nagornyy
Karabakh] be returned afterwards. Or do them in parallel. The return
of territories, which will undermine the NKR's security, followed
by a referendum should be avoided. This option is the idea of the
[OSCE Minsk Group] co-chairs and the USA is the godfather of it. This
option reflects the US and Turkish interests.
[168 Zham] Is it important for the USA whether or not the NKR remains
within Azerbaijan?
Turkey, USA want to oust Russia from region
[Harutyunyan] No, it is not important even for Turkey. Turkey attaches
importance to the road linking [Azerbaijani exclave] Naxcivan to
[Armenia's] Meghri and Azerbaijan and to ousting Russia from the
region. This idea unifies Turkey and the USA. Recently the Turkish
defence minister said in the USA that Turkey and America should do
everything to keep Armenia away from the Russian Federation and Iran in
order to have [Armenia] direct its policy towards the West. Azerbaijan
is also interested in ousting Russia from the region since it thinks
that Russia backs Armenia. Moreover, they are convinced that Russia
secured the victory for Armenians [in the Karabakh war]. In the NKR
issue Turkey is restricted by Azerbaijan's position. If you remember,
[Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev said that if you concede and
open the borders we will raise gas prices. Turkey pays 80-90 dollars
to Azerbaijan per cubic meter of gas. For Russian gas Turkey pays
450 dollars while for Egyptian gas Turkey pays 400 dollars.
[168 Zham] The events are developing rapidly around the NKR and
the regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations, but it seems that the
negotiations are in deadlock.
[Harutyunyan] Over the past period there were moments when they said
that soon the issue would be solved. But until today the NKR issue
has not been settled. Do you remember that in 2000 when the Meghri
option [exchanging Azerbaijan's breakaway Nagornyy Karabakh region to
Armenia's Meghri Region] was on the agenda, [former Armenian President
Robert] Kocharyan dismissed those officials who were against the Meghri
option? Some Azerbaijani, Turkish, Georgian and American officials
welcomed his step saying that the replacement of the authorities was
the right step and that it would resolve the NKR issue and would bring
stability to the region. But after the failure of the project, the
US co-chair [of the OSCE Minsk Group] had to say that the presidents
were ready but people were not. And now the co-chairs are saying
the same. Their interests demand a speedy solution, and what kind
of solution is another topic. They need a corridor, overland lines
of communication with Afghanistan. There are issues of setting up
military bases and influencing the region.
[168 Zham] Nevertheless, in the near future a series of events
are expected in that field, i.e. the updated version of the Madrid
principles, replacement of the co-chairs and [Armenian President]
Serzh Sargsyan's possible visit to Turkey. What settlements do you
predict with regards to these expectations?
No progress expected in Armenian-Turkish, Armenian-Azerbaijani
negotiations
[Harutyunyan] There won't be any progress in the upcoming months. They
want to speed up the settlement, but in the NKR issue settlement
it will be rather difficult to reach agreement. The same is with
Turkey on the border opening. In the context of regional influence,
the USA attaches importance to the Armenian-Turkish border opening
and for that purpose it might even put pressure on its military ally
[Turkey] playing the card of the genocide recognition. I do not see
the possibility of opening the border at this point. The Turkish
authorities would like to open the border with Armenia since Armenia
hinders Turkey's efforts to eventually establish its influence in the
region. By opening the border Turkey gains economic and political
leverages to influence the region. But in case of border opening,
Azerbaijan, on the one hand, and the Turkish people, on the other
hand, will accuse it [the Turkish government] of treachery since
anti-Armenian moods are strong in Turkey.
[168 Zham] Thus, Azerbaijan is a factor in the region.
[Harutyunyan] Just the other way around, Armenia is a factor, because
the key to the NKR settlement is in the hands of Armenia.
[168 Zham] Even now when they are discussing the return of seven
districts [Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani districts around Nagornyy
Karabakh]?
[Harutyunyan] You are right, they are discussing this. But the
discussion won't become reality. One of the reasons is that Azerbaijan
does not agree even to a blurred formulation of a referendum in the
Madrid principles. And Armenia has made all possible concessions in
the negotiations process, but the key to the final settlement of the
issue is in the hands of Armenia. The strategy of the negotiations
should be changed.
[168 Zham] Don't the Armenian authorities realize that fact? What
prevents them from toughening the talks policy like Aliyev did?
[Harutyunyan] The negotiation process went wrong in 1998 when the
NKR was ousted from the process due to Armenia's fault and the
Meghri issue was included in the agenda. The Armenian side conceded
with the hope that it would achieve the goal if the co-chairs
put pressure on Azerbaijan to approve the NKR's independence. In
addition, today there is pressure on Armenia regarding the rigged
[February 2008 presidential] election results and 1 March events
[post-election unrest]. In parallel to the negotiations process,
it [this pressure] either grows at some point or gets out of agenda
depending on the Armenian position in the negotiations. In order to fix
the situation we have to go back to the real picture of the conflict,
to the reality that Azerbaijan started the war and the consequences
are its fault. The conflict is tripartite and it is not possible
to negotiate without [Nagornyy] Karabakh. Armenia should table the
issue of refugees, Armenian territories occupied by Azerbaijan and
the issue of communications.