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  • BAKU; Azerbaijani Analyst On Possible Meeting Between Turkish PM And

    AZERBAIJANI ANALYST ON POSSIBLE MEETING BETWEEN TURKISH PM AND ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN U.S.

    Today
    http://www.today.az/news/politics/6551 4.html
    April 6 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Interview with Azerbaijani political analyst Arif Yunus.

    Can we say that Erdogan's upcoming visit to Washington will remove
    issue of the "Armenian genocide" from the agenda of the U.S. once
    and for all?

    To begin with, the issue of "genocide" will not be removed from the
    agenda of the United States neither today nor in the coming years. It
    will continue hanging over Turkey as the sword of Damocles. It's
    a good tool for putting pressure on Ankara. Problems in US-Turkish
    relations will long be ambigious, because Turkey is also a regional
    power and seeks to conduct its policy.

    In addition, we must understand that the voters in the U.S. have a
    significant role. There can not be policy, when the president can,
    roughly speaking, shut the mouths of parliamentarians. It does not
    work in the United States. And the role of ethnic diasporas in the
    U.S. has been playing and will continue to play an important role.

    Another thing, is that this year the U.S. president is not going to
    do what Armenians expect him to do - he will not make a statement
    recognizing the "genocide" on April 24th.

    At the same time, the scheduled visit of the Turkish Prime Minister is
    related to a new situation in our region rather than "genocide" issue.

    Tehran's nuclear program is the number one issue for the U.S. The U.S.

    needs a stable situation in the South Caucasus and the possibility of
    using this territory for its future plans in the region, particularly
    in connection with Iran. Of course, Turkey's position also plays a
    great role both in relation to Iran and in relation with Caucasus
    countries.

    In your opinion, will Turkish PM and Armenian President meet in
    the U.S.?

    I am sure of it. Anyway, I'll be very surprised if this meeting does
    not take place. Americans themselves want this meeting to happen. I
    have no doubt that during his meeting with Erdogan, Obama will surely
    discuss all issues related to Armenian-Turkish relations. After all,
    the question today is very important for both the U.S. administration
    and Turkey. Each side hopes to solve its problems. Americans need
    further progress in Armenian-Turkish relations, which stalled after
    the protocols were signed in Switzerland. There were even fears about
    the future prospects of Armenian-Turkish relations. So, this issue
    will be discussed both in the course of US-Turkish negotiations and
    during meeting between Erdogan and Sargsyan in the U.S.

    In your opinion, will the Turkey-Armenia border finally open? Will it
    be linked to the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict?

    Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is a matter of time. Most
    likely, it will open soon. Simply, each side is trying to squeeze
    dividends in its favor and lose as little as possible. But it is very
    doubtful whether this issue will be legally linked with the process of
    settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Of
    course, during his meetings with Obama, and then with Sargsyan the
    Turkish prime minister will try to link these two issues together. He
    knows that Turkish society and Baku also want this. The best way out
    for Erdogan and his supporters is to link these two processes. But
    he is unlikely to succeed. Anyway, today it is difficult to imagine.

    Is it possible that Armenian terrorism will again be used as a
    mechanism of pressure on Turkey, and Armenian terrorists will organize
    attacks in the country?

    I think it has already been left in the past. First, let's not forget
    that notorious Armenian terrorist organization ASALA was supported
    by the USSR, and was part of the great geopolitical struggle of
    the Soviet Union against NATO and U.S. in that period. There is a
    different situation in the region.

    May the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict mark
    progress any time soon?

    No. As always, we'll hear optimistic statements by the OSCE Minsk Group
    and other Western diplomats and experts. There will be statements by
    the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. But realistically, I expect
    no breakthrough in this regard in near future.. The positions of the
    conflicting parties are too far apart, and today I see no positive
    dynamics towards the settlement of the conflict.

    How do you assess the socio-political situation in Armenia? Does
    former President Kocharian have a chance to return to politics?

    Today the situation in Armenia is quite difficult. But when compared
    with Serzh Sargsyan's early days in power, today his position is much
    stronger than it was a year ago. And we can say that today he feels
    as president much more confident than a year ago.

    However, socio-political situation in Armenia is heavily dependent on
    three factors: the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, relations with
    Turkey and the economic situation in the country. And since there is
    uncertainty and serious problems in all three cases, it means that
    socio-political situation in Armenia will be permanently subject to
    changes and shocks.

    Since the power in Armenia is not democratic and would not be
    inclined to seek dialogue with the opposition and solve problems
    based on democratic principles, I do not rule out changes in Serzh
    Sargsyan's position. Therefore, we can only talk about the current
    situation of Sargsyan.
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